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Thread: Willy Taveras - 2009 to date

  1. #121
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Once again.....

    It's May.

    The are NO forgone conclusions in May.

    I'm happy with the way things are going, but at this point, there is more evidence pointing towards flukiness than greatness.

    A career vs. five weeks.

    I want to be wrong in the worst possible way, but I ain't no Kool Aid drinker, either.

    Let's give it some more time, fellas.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

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  3. #122
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post

    I'll wait and see how the season plays out. It's not like we haven't seen this scenario before.

    Rem
    I don't disagree that this team could go in the tank, but I don't think that will be because of Walt's additions (with the possible exception of Owings).

    One might argue that he "didn't do enough," and that's a fair argument, but this thread is about Taveras (and tangentially, who Walt "did" acquire); I'd say he's done an exceptional job with his acquisitions (especially when considering bang for buck value).

  4. #123
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Walt has so far been right about Nix, Hernandez, Taveras, Masset, Rhodes.

    The guy's made a career out of stomping other teams' guts at the margins of his rosters. While other teams get 50 innings of Majewski, Jocketty's teams get 70 innings of Masset; while some teams get 350 ABs of Juan Castro, Jocketty's teams get the same number of ABs from guys like Nix or Placido Palanco. Status quo for him. I'm not feelin' the Walt-hate either.
    I think this is right on the money.

    We all talk about outliers and brush them off, saying since they don't fit the norm, we can't count on them. But isn't that what separates a good GM from a great GM? The ability to find guys who are outliers? Players who will break away from their projections and provide better production than expected?

    Every GM can use stats to make the easy calls. The ones that win championships are the ones that can consistently find and get the players before they break through. Guys like Schurholtz, Epstein, Beane, and Jocketty do it too often, over too many years for it to be good luck. And guys like Bowden, Malone, Bavasi, and Wade fail at it too often for theirs to be bad luck.
    Last edited by TheNext44; 05-12-2009 at 06:43 PM.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  5. #124
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Completely agree. No definite conclusions until the end of the season at the earliest.

    However...

    From watching him, I can really see that he is not the hitter that his career stats says he is. As Doug pointed out, he does not have an alarming LD % or BAPIP, or Bunt %, in fact, those are around or even a bit lower than his career numbers. He basically is making more contact and seeing more pitches than usual. And even those are not at an unsustainable level.

    This could be just from random variance due to the sample size, but it very well could be due to a changed approach. Watching him hit, my opinion is that it is the later. Well see...
    Here's a list of things that are significantly better/different for Taveras in '09 than his career numbers:

    XBH% and ISO
    BB rate
    K rate
    contact rate
    swinging significantly less
    BB/K
    GB% sig. lower
    prowess with the leather


    If this is sustainable, he's becoming a red dragon before our very eyes....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #125
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I don't disagree that this team could go in the tank, but I don't think that will be because of Walt's additions (with the possible exception of Owings).

    One might argue that he "didn't do enough," and that's a fair argument, but this thread is about Taveras (and tangentially, who Walt "did" acquire); I'd say he's done an exceptional job with his acquisitions (especially when considering bang for buck value).
    Ironically, I liked the Owings acqusition. Yeah, it ment that we gave up Dunn but he was obviously not going to be in the Reds plans anyway.

    I'm giving thought to dropping into Petco this Sunday to watch the Reds and Pads do battle. The one negative for me is that Arroyo is scheduled to start. I'd much rather watch any other Reds starter than Bronson. Ugg.

    Rem

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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Ironically, I liked the Owings acqusition. Yeah, it ment that we gave up Dunn but he was obviously not going to be in the Reds plans anyway.

    I'm giving thought to dropping into Petco this Sunday to watch the Reds and Pads do battle. The one negative for me is that Arroyo is scheduled to start. I'd much rather watch any other Reds starter than Bronson. Ugg.

    Rem
    It's probably a bit early to completely jettison Owings, but the early returns are pretty ugly, IMO.

    And you're right, Bronson's untenable and I highly doubt there's going to be a major correction for him; I'd be stunned if the guy's ERA or FIP drops below 5.5 for the season.

  8. #127
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Neither Morgan nor Reed has ever been a fulltime player either. It's an apple and trucks comparison.

    Walt has so far been right about Nix, Hernandez, Taveras, Masset, Rhodes.

    The guy's made a career out of stomping other teams' guts at the margins of his rosters. While other teams get 50 innings of Majewski, Jocketty's teams get 70 innings of Masset; while some teams get 350 ABs of Juan Castro, Jocketty's teams get the same number of ABs from guys like Nix or Placido Palanco. Status quo for him. I'm not feelin' the Walt-hate either.
    He has been right SO FAR about those players. I personally thought the Lincoln signing was awful, but I guess you can't always be right.

  9. #128
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    He has been right SO FAR about those players. I personally thought the Lincoln signing was awful, but I guess you can't always be right.
    What's good about him being right SO FAR is that none of them are signed for nine years--or even three. So they'll not destroy the team's future if they go south next season.

  10. #129
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Time will tell about Willy's OBP and everything else offensively (and I am very encouraged). But I will say one thing about him that doesn't change: he seems like a good guy and his teammates like him. When interviewed, he is all about the team and winning. I just like the guy's attitude.

    Add in the fact that he is more than getting it done offensively and I'm glad a lot of us were wrong about this one (at least so far). I definitely wouldn't want Dickerson as the everyday CF of the team over Taveras and coming into the season I remember thinking I would prefer Dickerson.

  11. #130
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    It's probably a bit early to completely jettison Owings, but the early returns are pretty ugly, IMO.

    As ugly as Josh Fogg!?! And, you've gotta' admit, his bat brings something to the table and gives the Reds flexibility that other teams don't have.

    Micah has been the victum of some shoddy play behind him. I'm willing to give him another 4-8 starts and see how he progresses. The alternative seems to be to bring up Homer and I'm guessing that you're not a big fan of that move.

    Rem

  12. #131
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's a list of things that are significantly better/different for Taveras in '09 than his career numbers:

    XBH% and ISO
    BB rate
    K rate
    contact rate
    swinging significantly less
    BB/K

    GB% sig. lower
    prowess with the leather


    If this is sustainable, he's becoming a red dragon before our very eyes....
    The bold stuff is all the same stuff. Making better contact and seeing more pitches. That is sustainable and if it is sustained, will lead to a higher OBP.

    The more power (SLG, ISOP, GB%), I agree, will revert back to norm for Taveras most likely.

    So no red dragon, but maybe a mean German Shepherd, which is better than the cute kitten I was expecting.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  13. #132
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    I agree Rem on Owings. Nothing wrong with keeping him in there a while so we know exactly what we've got in him. He isn't killing us or anything. In fact, when you factor in his bat, he's actually been an asset overall. Obviously the Reds need him to pitch better, but I don't think he's that far off (and is a much better No. 5 than we've had in years past... Fogg, Dave Williams, etc).

    And considering he's the best bat on our bench, it makes it a no-brainer to keep him as the No. 5 starter unless he starts to kill the Reds as a pitcher.

  14. #133
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    So no red dragon, but maybe a mean German Shepherd, which is better than the cute kitten I was expecting.
    You were expecting a cute kitten? Here's the cat I was expecting.

    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  15. #134
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What's good about him being right SO FAR is that none of them are signed for nine years--or even three. So they'll not destroy the team's future if they go south next season.
    Hard to argue that.

    On a seperate note, I think Arroyo will finish with an ERA in the 4s somewhere...which isn't great, but not horrible either.

  16. #135
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras - One Month In

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I think this is right on the money.

    We all talk about outliers and brush them off, saying since they don't fit the norm, we can't count on them. But isn't that what separates a great GM from a great GM? The ability to find guys who are outliers? Players who will break away from their projections and provide better production than expected?

    Every GM can use stats to make the easy calls. The ones that win championships are the ones that can consistently find and get the players before they break through. Guys like Schurholtz, Epstein, Beane, and Jocketty do it too often, over too many years for it to be good luck. And guys like Bowden, Malone, Bavasi, and Wade fail at it too often for theirs to be bad luck.
    That's a very good point.

    I'm not sold on Taveras, but if they can hang around long enough, I think I'm more confident in Jocketty finding a bat than I have been almost any Reds GM in recent history.

    He's been there, done that.

    Keep your fingers crossed.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn


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