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Thread: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    I thought it might be interesting to examine how the Reds, and in some specific cases, the individuals on the Reds' team, are doing in regards to getting people on base, getting people over and then getting people in to score.

    First and foremost, as a team, the Reds are currently 10th in the National League in On Base Percentage (.327). This clearly could be a lot better, though the much publicized and ballyhooed increased patience of some Reds' hitters have resulted in more 'professional' at-bats. Cincinnati is 7th in the league in pitchers per plate appearance (3.90).

    Among the league leaders in this category:

    7. Joey Votto (4.26)
    33. Willy Taveras (3.98)
    35. Brandon Phillips (3.95)
    40. Jay Bruce (3.94)

    Though he is not yet qualified in the number of at-bats this season, Laynce Nix would be high among the league leaders with 4.18 pitches seen per appearance. Ramon Hernandez has also been pretty patient, seeing 3.88 pitches per PA. At very least, I believe this is an encouraging trend if you're looking down the line this season. That OBP may continue to rise slowly as a result.

    Getting 'Em On

    Joey Votto (.466)
    Paul Janish (.419)
    Ryan Hanigan (.406)
    Laynce Nix (.356)
    Jay Bruce (.355)
    Willy Taveras (.348)
    Ramon Hernandez (.344)
    Chris Dickerson (.333)
    Adam Rosales (.324)
    Brandon Phillips (.306)
    Edwin Encarnacion (.286)
    Jerry Hairston (.269)
    Alex Gonzalez (.219)

    The good news, here, is that the Reds' team walk rate (9.83%) is hovering right around league average.

    One thing that stood out to me: though Phillips has a putrid OBP (which has come up with his recent hot streak), and though his line drive % (13.7) accounts for some of the difference, his Batting Average with Balls in Play is nearly 70 points lower than his Reds' career. His walk rate is around 10%, so a lot of the low OBP can partially be attributed so simply being unlucky. If his BABIP were even 'average' to his Reds' stats, he would have (according to my calculations) a .351 OBP right now. That's essentially a difference in five (5) hits from 'luck.' So Phillips is not having quite as bad a season as one would think at first glance.

    The other thing I noticed is the lack of production at third base. Clearly, Edwin Encarnacion (before he got hurt) and Adam Rosales have not been overly productive. They've combined on 95 at-bats and just 16 hits, with one homer. Together, they've created around 5 runs. They've made 83 outs, so that's .06 runs per out (RPO). For context, last year Encarnacion created nearly 80 runs while making 397 outs. That's essentially .20 runs per out. Putting that kind of rate to this year's production, given around 83 outs, the Reds may have scored an additional 11 runs this year. That's 11 more runs just due to a normal production rate from third base - at least based on Encarnacion in 2008.

    Getting 'Em Over

    Sacrifices (SH and SF combined)

    (as a team, the Reds have 32 sacrifices - 22 SH and 10 SF. That's good for 5th in the league in flies and 1st in the league in Sac Hits - though I have not put that in context of percentages or rates to gauge if that's just Cincinnati trying so many more sacrifices or actually getting them down better)

    Willy Taveras (7)
    Bronson Arroyo (6)
    Brandon Phillips (3)
    Edinson Volquez (3)


    Stolen Bases

    I've got my own little stat, that I like to use. I have not put it to extensive correlation testing by any means, but it's just a common sense measure to gauge stolen base productivity. Instead of using raw steal stats, or steal percentage, I take all the number of possible bases a runner could swipe. For instance, a single would theoretically mean second and third could be stolen. Same for a walk. A double means third is there for the taking. Though runners could be 'clogging' bases ahead of them, it just gives an idea of the total number of chances to steal.

    By taking this number, I divide the total number of successful stolen bases (minus 1.33 times the number of caught stealing attempts) by the opportunities to give me an estimated success rate of stolen bases.

    In the National League, this season, here are the numbers:

    (at least 90 plate appearances)

    1. Dexter Fowler, COL, 10.24
    2. Conor Jackson, ARI, 9.62
    3. Matt Kemp, LAD, 7.86
    4. Michael Bourn, HOU, 7.22
    5. Randy Winn, SFO, 6.90
    6. Scott Hairston, SD, 6.67
    7. Eric Byrnes, ARI, 6.57
    8. Willy Taveras, CIN, 6.31
    9. Clint Barmes, COL, 6.06
    10. Jose Reyes, NYM, 6.05
    11. Emmanuel Burris, SFO, 5.09
    12. Ryan Theriot, CHI, 5.05
    13. Brandon Phillips, CIN, 4.40
    14. Nate McLouth, PIT, 4.35
    15. Raul Ibanez, PHI, 4.29
    16. Orlando Hudson, LAD, 3.92
    17. Ryan Spilborghs, COL, 3.90
    18. Emilio Bonifacio, FLA, 3.84
    19. Ryan Ludwick, STL, 3.57
    20. Pablo Sandoval, SFO, 3.39

    For additional context on this stat, here were last year's top 5 (notice Willy)

    1. Willy Taveras, CIN, 18.92
    2. Jimmy Rollins, PHI, 11.87
    3. Michael Bourn, HOU, 9.55
    4. Juan Pierre, LAD, 8.55
    5. Jose Reyes, NYM, 7.43

    If Taveras had that success rate this season based on his current numbers, I'd estimate some additional four to five runs having been scored thus far by the Reds. Again, I have not done full research to apply this statistic backward, but it just seems like a good measure to find the stolen base productivity of a player.

    Getting 'Em In

    I mentioned earlier the Sacrifice Flies. Well here are two stats I like personally in measuring overall run production and 'clutch' hitting so to speak.

    Plate Appearances per Run Created

    1. Joey Votto (4.8)
    2. Laynce Nix (5.7)
    3. Jay Bruce (5.9)
    4. Ryan Hanigan (7.3)
    5. Paul Janish (7.5)
    6. Brandon Phillips (8.5)
    7. Willy Taveras (8.9)
    8. Ramon Hernandez (9.6)
    9. Chris Dickerson (11.4)
    10. Jerry Hairston (12.5)
    11. Alex Gonzalez (17.0)
    12. Edwin Encarnacion (18.9)
    13. Adam Rosales (31.1)


    For some additional context, so far this year, the National League players are creating runs at a rate of 8.4 plate appearances, though this includes pitchers. Also note, that while I've not included Darnell McDonald in any metrics including this one (admitted personal bias), he's basically creating a run every 18 plate appearances.

    Runs Batted In Percentage

    (Note: the formula I use for this is total Runs Batted In minus Home Runs divided by total runners on base when coming to the plate. This does not take into account runners that are still left on after a single, walk, double or whatever. This is purely a ratio of runners driven in to total runners on base that are left stranded when that batter's at-bat ends)

    1. Joey Votto (40.00% - also is tops in the National League over Pujols)
    2. Ramon Hernandez (21.62)
    3. Adam Rosales (20.00)
    4. Brandon Phillips (18.84)
    5. Willy Taveras (18.75)
    6. Jay Bruce (17.31)
    7. Edwin Encarnacion (15.63)
    8. Laynce Nix (15.39)
    9. Alex Gonzalez (14.89)
    10. Chris Dickerson (13.33)
    11. Paul Janish (13.33)
    12. Jerry Hairston (10.71)
    13. Ryan Hanigan (10.00)

    The more I see the season play out, the more I'm all for Ramon Hernandez bat cleanup to break up Votto & Bruce, and let Phillips return to the two-hole. He's essentially got a 1-in-5 ratio of driving in runs to stranding runners. That's good for top-50 in the league. Clearly, this does seem to show the Reds' ultimate problem - Getting 'Em In. I think getting runners on base and getting them over has not been an issue, but getting them driven in has been. So my overall synopsis thus far is, more than anything, the Reds simply need some guys to drive the ball. It's for this reason I'm glad Laynce Nix is now starting, and I believe a little more power would go a long way on this club.

    This is a lot of information to throw at folks. Hope it's enjoyable!

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Great post
    Follow me on twitter @EricLilly7

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Two problems with BP batting 2nd.

    1. He's a RH pull hitter who almost never hits it to RF. Doesn't mesh well when Taveras is on 1B and the first baseman is holding him on.

    2. He's a double play hitting machine. A pitcher's dream.

    BP should be batting 7th.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    Two problems with BP batting 2nd.

    1. He's a RH pull hitter who almost never hits it to RF. Doesn't mesh well when Taveras is on 1B and the first baseman is holding him on.

    2. He's a double play hitting machine. A pitcher's dream.

    BP should be batting 7th.
    BP would do fine in the 2 hole, if he could be a tad more patient. I remember him slapping the ball opposite field all the time when he was in the 2 spot a few years back.

    With Taveras running in front of him, there should be about 75% less DP balls.

    Batting 7th would be a waste of his talent, either 2,4,5 or 6.

    5 spot is ideal if Votto and Bruce ever bat back to back again.

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    All I know is that 3,4,5 should go Votto, Hernandez, Bruce. I'm still looking for a 2-hole hitter and haven't found one yet. BP would be ideal if he took more pitches and would start hitting opposite field. BP always seems to be 0-1 or 0-2 in the count. He's so impatient. You need patience in a 2-hole hitter.
    Who's on first?

  7. #6
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    Two problems with BP batting 2nd.

    1. He's a RH pull hitter who almost never hits it to RF. Doesn't mesh well when Taveras is on 1B and the first baseman is holding him on.

    2. He's a double play hitting machine. A pitcher's dream.

    BP should be batting 7th.
    He's been more willing, at least at various times, to hit the ball to right this season. And further, he's making pretty good contact this year (as evidenced by striking out only 10% of the time).

    Last season, Phillips had pretty good success executing the hit-and-run. It seems like having him hit behind Taveras would be good -especially him having Votto to protect him.

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    He's been more willing, at least at various times, to hit the ball to right this season. And further, he's making pretty good contact this year (as evidenced by striking out only 10% of the time).

    Last season, Phillips had pretty good success executing the hit-and-run. It seems like having him hit behind Taveras would be good -especially him having Votto to protect him.
    That was last year.

    If he'd do what you said he did last year, then I'm all for it.

    I've yet to see it this year.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    Two problems with BP batting 2nd.

    1. He's a RH pull hitter who almost never hits it to RF. Doesn't mesh well when Taveras is on 1B and the first baseman is holding him on.

    2. He's a double play hitting machine. A pitcher's dream.

    BP should be batting 7th.
    Exactly,

    The optimal 2 hitter is Ramon Hernandez....if he wasn't the slowest guy on the team with a doubles machine behind him.
    "I was on tour in the US back in '89 and we we did a show in Cincinnati. During that show I shouted out, 'It's great to be in Cincinnati!' That was a lie." -- David Bowie

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    Quote Originally Posted by jfar23 View Post
    Exactly,

    The optimal 2 hitter is Ramon Hernandez....if he wasn't the slowest guy on the team with a doubles machine behind him.
    Yeah. I even hesitate putting Ramon in the 4-hole, but his lack of speed is a definite issue. What he does do well is go opposite field though. Very good at that.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in.

    So in today's game, (5/9/09) JHJ just layed down a perfect bunt to get Willy Taveras to 2nd. It was very well executed, and I love to see the Reds doing this, but is it me or should Hairston not have had to bunt Willy over? I'm really puzzled as to why he's not running more this year. The announcers imply that he always has the green light, but you would think if that was the case, he would be going much more often, especially with how aggressive he's been in the past.


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