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Thread: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

  1. #1
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Normally when you assess whether a team can make the postseason you do something rational, like figure the team's strengths and then weigh them against its weaknesses.

    When I do that, I don't come out with the Reds being anything special, but there is a critical factor not worked into that weighting - JUAN CASTRO IS GONE.

    Much of what we thought about the Reds prior to this season was tainted by the insidious effects of Juan Castro. Just when the team thought it had worked Castro out of its system in 2006, he returned to re-inject his lethal, team-killing venom.

    I may very well have failed to account for the post-Castro rebound. How large can that be? No one knows, as no other organization ever willingly subjected itself to such dangerous levels of Juan Castro for such an extended period of time. Recovery could happen quick or it could take years or the franchise could be permanently contaminated. Baseball science has not progressed so far as to answer that question. Yet the de-Castrofication of the Reds changes everything.

    For instance, I don't think the Reds offense is such great shakes ... but the team no longer has Juan Castro.

    I think the pitching is at best good, not great ... but the team no longer has Juan Castro.

    I think the defense is mediocre ... but the team no longer has Juan Castro.

    See? Whatever I might think is not good enough about this team has to be adjusted to reflect the lack of Juan Castro. Until Juan Castro arrived the Reds were, during my entire life, a can-do organization that generally played to its strengths rather than its weaknesses. Even the brutal 1982-84 run was brief and led to a flourish that saw the team finish .500 or better in 9 of the next 12 seasons.

    After Castro arrived the Reds systematically got worse at everything, to the point of being hopeless. Yet Juan Castro is gone, so maybe the Reds don't have to be hopeless. It's like speculation how fast you might be after wearing leg shackles for a decade. You don't really know, but at least you have the chance to find out.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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  3. #2
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Funny thing is, the Dodgers do have Juan Castro and yet are still one of the better teams in baseball.. at least they were before Manny-gate. I wonder if Juan's drag-suckitude on other players is a localized phenomena particular to the Cincinnati area?
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  4. #3
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Normally when you assess whether a team can make the postseason you do something rational, like figure the team's strengths and then weigh them against its weaknesses.

    When I do that, I don't come out with the Reds being anything special, but there is a critical factor not worked into that weighting - JUAN CASTRO IS GONE.

    Much of what we thought about the Reds prior to this season was tainted by the insidious effects of Juan Castro. Just when the team thought it had worked Castro out of its system in 2006, he returned to re-inject his lethal, team-killing venom.

    I may very well have failed to account for the post-Castro rebound. How large can that be? No one knows, as no other organization ever willingly subjected itself to such dangerous levels of Juan Castro for such an extended period of time. Recovery could happen quick or it could take years or the franchise could be permanently contaminated. Baseball science has not progressed so far as to answer that question. Yet the de-Castrofication of the Reds changes everything.

    For instance, I don't think the Reds offense is such great shakes ... but the team no longer has Juan Castro.

    I think the pitching is at best good, not great ... but the team no longer has Juan Castro.

    I think the defense is mediocre ... but the team no longer has Juan Castro.

    See? Whatever I might think is not good enough about this team has to be adjusted to reflect the lack of Juan Castro. Until Juan Castro arrived the Reds were, during my entire life, a can-do organization that generally played to its strengths rather than its weaknesses. Even the brutal 1982-84 run was brief and led to a flourish that saw the team finish .500 or better in 9 of the next 12 seasons.

    After Castro arrived the Reds systematically got worse at everything, to the point of being hopeless. Yet Juan Castro is gone, so maybe the Reds don't have to be hopeless. It's like speculation how fast you might be after wearing leg shackles for a decade. You don't really know, but at least you have the chance to find out.
    Just to be annoying, Castro is putting up these numbers so far this season in 17 PA's.

    .438 .412 .563 .974
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    So, what's the half-life of Juan Castro? How long until we stop glowing in the dark?
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Funny thing is, the Dodgers do have Juan Castro and yet are still one of the better teams in baseball.. at least they were before Manny-gate. I wonder if Juan's drag-suckitude on other players is a localized phenomena particular to the Cincinnati area?
    No Juan Castro and Manny doesn't get caught.

    He killed the Twins and the late 90s Dodgers were legendary underachievers.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  7. #6
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No Juan Castro and Manny doesn't get caught.

    He killed the Twins and the late 90s Dodgers were legendary underachievers.
    I think you're on to something here...

    In 2006, the Reds were 37-29 on June 14. On June 15 they re-acquire Castro. That was the highest they were above .500 all season, and ended 80-82.

    ....very interesting.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  8. #7
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No Juan Castro and Manny doesn't get caught.

    He killed the Twins and the late 90s Dodgers were legendary underachievers.
    I have the urge to make an inappropriate ED joke here but I'll just take your word for it.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  9. #8
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I think you're on to something here...

    In 2006, the Reds were 37-29 on June 14. On June 15 they re-acquire Castro. That was the highest they were above .500 all season, and ended 80-82.

    ....very interesting.
    Oh, I know all about that 37-29 record in 2006. Follow the hyperlink in the first post.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  10. #9
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe the Reds do have a chance

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Oh, I know all about that 37-29 record in 2006. Follow the hyperlink in the first post.
    I'm convinced.

    Does this mean that the Reds need to trade Jose Castro before he makes it to the bigs?
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein


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