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Thread: Hernandez and Hanigan

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    Reds fan for life!!!! WVPacman's Avatar
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    Hernandez and Hanigan

    Its early but what I have seen from these two guys so far is simply amazing.They're hitting the ball really good coming up with clutch hits during this hot streak and both are playing great defense so far.LOL Ramon looks like a gold glove winner at first when he has to play there.Hanigan I feel is making a name for himself atleast with the Reds with the playing time that he is getting.He is going out there every chance he gets and plays his butt off along with Hernandez.

    Right now the reds front office looks smart for trading for Hernandez and bringing Haningan up to be the back up.These two guys have done everything that they have been asked to do so far and I think we could'nt ask for anything better than these two guys.Hernandez plays like the vet he is and Hanigan shows alot of promise.The way they handle the Reds pitchers and keep them calm is the most important and are one of the main reasons why the pitching has been so good so far.

    Keep it up guys!!!!!!!!
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    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    I agree 100%. I thought at the end of last season that Hanigan could handle himself behind the plate, but a team needs two good catchers, and if the Reds could go out and find someone who could make Hanigan the #2 catcher, then it would solidify the position for the first time in years. Hernandez has done just that. The catching position is now a strength on this club.
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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    I've been thinking the same thing, and was toying with doing a thread about it myself. I was looking at the numbers to confirm my impressions. I was surprised by the results. Unless I am interpreting these numbers totally incorrectly, in the first 6 weeks of the season Hernandez/Hannigan aren't really producing at the plate at rates that different than their predecessors

    Code:
    YEAR	NAME	        PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	BB Rate	  HITR	    OUTR      VORPr
    2009	Ryan Hanigan	48	.245	.362	.333	0.0833	 0.27083   0.64583    0.041
    2009	Ramon Hernandez	117	.239	.339	.346	0.0769	 0.24786   0.66667   -0.015
    
    
    YEAR	NAME	         PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	BB Rate   HITR	    OUTR      VORPr
    2008	David Ross	173	.267	.381	.366	0.1850	 0.17919   0.62428    0.114
    2008	Ryan Hanigan	98	.260	.367	.365	0.1020	 0.23469   0.60204    0.119
    2008	Paul Bako	338	.217	.299	.328	0.1006	 0.19231   0.68935   -0.092
    
     
    YEAR       NAME          PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	BB Rate	  HITR	    OUTR      VORPr
    2007	Javier Valentin	265	.242	.328	.387	0.0717	 0.25283   0.66792    0.095
    2007	David Ross	348	.223	.271	.399	0.0862	 0.18103   0.72414   -0.036
    2007	Chad Moeller	49	.101	.167	.250	0.0000	 0.16327   0.79592   -0.455.
    Since we're comparing 6 weeks to 162 games I used rate stats as a comparison. I was really surprised, I thought they would be heads and shoulders above the dreck that has been back there in recent years. Their hit rates are better, so maybe that is part of why they appear to be doing better?

    Now that said, I have no doubt Hernandez is going to continue to warm up and end up the season somewhere closer to these numbers:
    Code:
    Year         NAME	   PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	  OUTR	  VORP	 RAR     RAP
    2008	Ramon Hernandez	   507	.252	.308	.406	0.68047	   8.2	11.2	-0.9
    2007	Ramon Hernandez	   409	.244	.333	.382	0.66259	   7.4	 5.8	-0.1
    I've posted a different set of numbers here, but trust me, they are better than anything David Ross, Javy V (sorry Chip), Paul Bako or Chad Moeller ever did in comparable numbers. Plus he's playing in the NL now, should get a boost from being new to the league and plays in GABP for 1/2 his games.

    Hernandez seems to work well with our Latin pitchers which is a plus, but Ross seemed to get along with some of the pitchers also. I don't remember anything being said about Bako but nobody seemed particularly in love with Javy. I won't get into defense since it's such a gray area, but in general Hernandez does *seem* more solid behind the dish. His work filling in at 1B has been admirable.

    Hannigan appears to be poised to give us a couple years of passable backup backstop duty. That's got value in itself.

    I can't put my finger on why I feel they are an improvement over previous regimes. So far it isn't the offense. Working with the pitchers gives mixed results and defense is such a "feel" thing it's not really clear cut either.

    Maybe it's that we have one legitimately decent catcher with a suitable backup instead of trying to juggle a three headed monster of meh for the first time in a while? Maybe it's the *reasonable* hope that by the end of the year they will outperform the other guys who needed divine intervention? Perhaps it's just a classic example of how a couple of good weeks can skew your impressions and make you forget the slow prior weeks?
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 05-15-2009 at 07:47 AM.
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    People forget that Ross and Valentin could actually hit to a certain degree.

    It was their defence that made most cringe.

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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I've been thinking the same thing, and was toying with doing a thread about it myself. I was looking at the numbers to confirm my impressions. I was surprised by the results. Unless I am interpreting these numbers totally incorrectly, in the first 6 weeks of the season Hernandez/Hannigan aren't really producing at the plate at rates that different than their predecessors
    They aren't. To this point Ramon has been a below average bat (wOBA=.312). Over 600 PA's that would translate into being -10 runs below average with the bat. It was his bat that was supposed to be the stimulus for the Reds RS.

    It's early. We'll see. But his wOBA thus far is almost exactly what he has done the last two seasons in Baltimore.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I can't put my finger on why I feel they are an improvement over previous regimes.
    Six shutouts makes everything look improved. Also Hanigan is a true defensive upgrade.
    Last edited by jojo; 05-15-2009 at 09:18 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Trade Votto!

    Just kidding.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Winning will cause that deception, lol. Hernandez seems to me to be doing his part offensively when needed most- in rallies and 2 out hits and what the above numbers point out is (from a career observation) he will get better and I look forward to that.

    In Joey Votto's absence, Ramon and Hannigan have done a fine job defensively! Really fun to see this collection of Reds players making the plays, getting timely hits and terrific productions from Taveras (never thought I would say that ) and Hairston at the igniting,top of the order. And as Brandon Phillips so accurately put it: "The Reds have their swag" [working].

    This month of May has been exciting. Yep, winning changes the perception of what we see into what we think we see and I see Hernandez and Hannigan doing just fine!

    Jerry/Vada Pinson Fan

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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Since we're comparing 6 weeks to 162 games I used rate stats as a comparison. I was really surprised, I thought they would be heads and shoulders above the dreck that has been back there in recent years. Their hit rates are better, so maybe that is part of why they appear to be doing better?
    I think that's it. Last year, Bako was awful, Valentin wasn't much better and rarely caught anyway, Hanigan came up late and Ross... well, you look at it, Ross didn't really hit much last year. He had a nice OBP with a much-higher-than-career-normal walk rate, and if you asked me, it probably occurred to him that walks were there for the taking batting #8 in front of our execrable-hitting pitchers, as he usually did. That didn't lead to much except propping up the team LOB number, though. But Hernandez and Hanigan are usually hitting #7 or higher and are delivering their fair share of key hits.
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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I've been thinking the same thing, and was toying with doing a thread about it myself. I was looking at the numbers to confirm my impressions. I was surprised by the results. Unless I am interpreting these numbers totally incorrectly, in the first 6 weeks of the season Hernandez/Hannigan aren't really producing at the plate at rates that different than their predecessors

    Code:
    YEAR	NAME	        PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	BB Rate	  HITR	    OUTR      VORPr
    2009	Ryan Hanigan	48	.245	.362	.333	0.0833	 0.27083   0.64583    0.041
    2009	Ramon Hernandez	117	.239	.339	.346	0.0769	 0.24786   0.66667   -0.015
    
    
    YEAR	NAME	         PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	BB Rate   HITR	    OUTR      VORPr
    2008	David Ross	173	.267	.381	.366	0.1850	 0.17919   0.62428    0.114
    2008	Ryan Hanigan	98	.260	.367	.365	0.1020	 0.23469   0.60204    0.119
    2008	Paul Bako	338	.217	.299	.328	0.1006	 0.19231   0.68935   -0.092
    
     
    YEAR       NAME          PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	BB Rate	  HITR	    OUTR      VORPr
    2007	Javier Valentin	265	.242	.328	.387	0.0717	 0.25283   0.66792    0.095
    2007	David Ross	348	.223	.271	.399	0.0862	 0.18103   0.72414   -0.036
    2007	Chad Moeller	49	.101	.167	.250	0.0000	 0.16327   0.79592   -0.455.
    Since we're comparing 6 weeks to 162 games I used rate stats as a comparison. I was really surprised, I thought they would be heads and shoulders above the dreck that has been back there in recent years. Their hit rates are better, so maybe that is part of why they appear to be doing better?

    Now that said, I have no doubt Hernandez is going to continue to warm up and end up the season somewhere closer to these numbers:
    Code:
    Year         NAME	   PA	 EqA	 OBP	 SLG	  OUTR	  VORP	 RAR     RAP
    2008	Ramon Hernandez	   507	.252	.308	.406	0.68047	   8.2	11.2	-0.9
    2007	Ramon Hernandez	   409	.244	.333	.382	0.66259	   7.4	 5.8	-0.1
    I've posted a different set of numbers here, but trust me, they are better than anything David Ross, Javy V (sorry Chip), Paul Bako or Chad Moeller ever did in comparable numbers. Plus he's playing in the NL now, should get a boost from being new to the league and plays in GABP for 1/2 his games.

    Hernandez seems to work well with our Latin pitchers which is a plus, but Ross seemed to get along with some of the pitchers also. I don't remember anything being said about Bako but nobody seemed particularly in love with Javy. I won't get into defense since it's such a gray area, but in general Hernandez does *seem* more solid behind the dish. His work filling in at 1B has been admirable.

    Hannigan appears to be poised to give us a couple years of passable backup backstop duty. That's got value in itself.

    I can't put my finger on why I feel they are an improvement over previous regimes. So far it isn't the offense. Working with the pitchers gives mixed results and defense is such a "feel" thing it's not really clear cut either.

    Maybe it's that we have one legitimately decent catcher with a suitable backup instead of trying to juggle a three headed monster of meh for the first time in a while? Maybe it's the *reasonable* hope that by the end of the year they will outperform the other guys who needed divine intervention? Perhaps it's just a classic example of how a couple of good weeks can skew your impressions and make you forget the slow prior weeks?

    First, these numbers only tell half the story, and since catching is the most important defensive position, even if the Reds catcher's offense stayed the same, but their defense improved, that would make it a huge upgrade over last year.

    Defense might be a "feel" thing, but just because one can't put a number on it does not mean that one can not make a rational judgment about it. Hanigan is definitely a big upgrade over last year, very obvious, he throws out runners, he blocks the plate, he handles pitchers well. There may not be numbers that back it up, but it would be very difficlut not to notice the difference between Hanigan and anyone else the Reds have had behind the plate the last few years.

    And I think Hernandez is too, but to a lesser degree. What I notice with him is that the catcher is back to being the captain of the infield. That has a big effect on the defense as a whole, and the pitching staff. This definitely is a "feel" thing, but I think most people can feel it. Hernandez has been a strong, stabilizing force for the defense this year.

    Second, these numbers are really just more proof that you can't make solid judgments based on just six weeks of stats. Here is why Reds fans feel better about their catching situation offensively.

    Hernandez:

    Last 28 days - .309 .374 .395 .769
    Men on Base - .333 .420 .405 .825
    Late & Close - .412 .474 .588 1.062
    High Leverage - .333 .348 .476 .824

    Hernandez is hitting better lately, and that's what fans remember. Also, it looks like he has settled in and this past month is more reflective of his true skill than the first few weeks. I think it is the opposite of "it's just a classic example of how a couple of good weeks can skew your impressions and make you forget the slow prior weeks." It's more like an example of how a bad 12 day start: .205 .255 .295 .551, can drag down overall numbers when the season is only 6 weeks old. (He's .333 .397 .383 .780 from the 12th game on.)

    I expect him to have numbers very close to his career numbers at the end of the season.

    He also has been doing well in clutch situations. Whether you believe that clutch exists or not, those numbers will definitely give a fan the impression that the player is producing. I know I tend to forget the hits with two outs and no one on in the 7th inning of a blowout, but I sure have no problem remembering hits that drive in runs in close games.

    Hanigan:

    Has hit safely in 9 of his 11 starts.
    He is hitting .285 and has a .388 OBP. It really is just his slugging that is low. For a back up catcher, that is more than acceptable.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Defense might be a "feel" thing, but just because one can't put a number on it does not mean that one can not make a rational judgment about it.
    I didn't say you can't make a judgment about it and in fact, made a judgment when I said Hernandez *seems* more solid back there. I just didn't want to spend a bunch of time on it since it's such an interpretive thing. Without a real reliable way to measure defense you run into "yes he is/no he isn't" arguments with no end.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    What I notice with him is that the catcher is back to being the captain of the infield.
    That may very well be and is an interesting point. Do you care to elaborate with some examples?

    In addition to your observation, there's something to be said for having pseudo-defined roles of primary and backup catcher instead of "catching by committee". The committee didn't work in Narron's bullpens and didn't seem to work during the three headed monster catching days either.

    How much that helps is a whole different ball of wax. It's partly an intangible thing of knowing your role. But also, I think it avoids the manager trying to be clever and make the decision on who plays based on small sample sizes, hunches and other general nonsense.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Second, these numbers are really just more proof that you can't make solid judgments based on just six weeks of stats.
    Which is why I used rate stats and noted that we're comparing 6 weeks to 162 games.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I expect him to have numbers very close to his career numbers at the end of the season.
    I agree and stated so. The league change and GABP boost can't hurt.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    I didn't say you can't make a judgment about it and in fact, made a judgment when I said Hernandez *seems* more solid back there. I just didn't want to spend a bunch of time on it since it's such an interpretive thing. Without a real reliable way to measure defense you run into "yes he is/no he isn't" arguments with no end.



    That may very well be and is an interesting point. Do you care to elaborate with some examples?

    In addition to your observation, there's something to be said for having pseudo-defined roles of primary and backup catcher instead of "catching by committee". The committee didn't work in Narron's bullpens and didn't seem to work during the three headed monster catching days either.

    How much that helps is a whole different ball of wax. It's partly an intangible thing of knowing your role. But also, I think it avoids the manager trying to be clever and make the decision on who plays based on small sample sizes, hunches and other general nonsense.



    Which is why I used rate stats and noted that we're comparing 6 weeks to 162 games.



    I agree and stated so. The league change and GABP boost can't hurt.
    I actually agree with you on this, sorry if my post came across any other way.

    You did a nice job showing that the actual production from the catching crew this year is around the same as last year. You wondered why many fans felt like there was an upgrade.

    I was just trying to show why fans who just watched the games would conclude that the production from the catching squad improved this year over last year. Mainly, it was because the defense was better, and Hernandez was hitting better lately, and had many memorable hits.

    The only thing I disagreed with you about, was the notion that this was an example of a few good stats making overall bad stats look better than they were. I thought it was the opposite, a few bad stats making good stats look bad overall. Pretty much semantics, and not much to argue about.

    Otherwise, nice post!
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I actually agree with you on this, sorry if my post came across any other way.
    The only way it came across was as a conversation, I didn't take your reply as an argument.

    I was interested most in your comment that the catchers position had resumed being the field general. Do you have examples of this or is it more of a vibe thing? Because I tend to agree with you but haven't seen as many games as I'd like to be able to give examples.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 05-15-2009 at 05:29 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    The only way it came across was as a conversation, I didn't take your reply as an argument.

    I was interested most in your comment that the catchers position had resumed being the field general. Do you have examples of this or is it more of a vibe thing? Because I tend to agree with you but haven't seen as many games as I'd like to be able to give examples.
    I agree with the field general thing.

    But only because I saw Ramon smoking a pipe between innings.

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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    The only way it came across was as a conversation, I didn't take your reply as an argument.

    I was interested most in your comment that the catchers position had resumed being the field general. Do you have examples of this or is it more of a vibe thing? Because I tend to agree with you but haven't seen as many games as I'd like to be able to give examples.
    I tend to think of it as a vibe thing. When you watch him Ramon he is so intense you just get the feeling like he is in charge of the entire IF. I think that dynamic changes a bit with certain but few pitchers Arroyo and Rhodes mostly.

    At any rate I think you hit the nail on the head somewhat with the hit rate (also sample size issue as well). The fact that they haven't gone into long streaks of unproductivity helps paint a good picture. Although Ramon has had such a streak people tend to give him the benefit of the doubt due to the circumstances right now. My guess is at the end of the season (and probably right now really) people will be ok with what he gave us and would be willing to re-sign him to a cheaper price if it were not for his option. People will thank him for doing a solid job and be ready to move on to Hanigan and preferably a LH platoon mate. The money is better spent elsewhere next season I think.

    Miguel Montero still sits at the top of my list of platoon mates, despite his pitchers not helping him much he had a decent enough arm and his hitting is better than what he showed in that series. I still cannot figure out why the D-Backs didn't use Montero in the Arroyo game, must have been a battery based decision.
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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Hernandez and Hanigan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    The only way it came across was as a conversation, I didn't take your reply as an argument.

    I was interested most in your comment that the catchers position had resumed being the field general. Do you have examples of this or is it more of a vibe thing? Because I tend to agree with you but haven't seen as many games as I'd like to be able to give examples.
    The most tangible effect that I have seen of Hernandez being the field general, has been the difference between Volquez and Cueto in their first few starts and now. Obviously they are more effective, but it seems that one reason why is that they are pitching at a much quicker pace. They seem to have more confidence in their stuff, and rarely shake off Hernandez.

    Just speculating here, but I think that comes from Hernandez letting them know that he is in charge, and that they need to follow his lead. It probably took him a few games to get that through to them.

    Last year, I felt like I was watching the Keystone Kops, whenever there was a bunt, or some sort of infield play involving guys moving around a lot, or even in just guys getting into position to field a throw from the outfield.

    That has been a huge improvement this year. In fact, I can't recall any play where players were not where they were supposed to be, or not knowing where to go. Probalbly has been a few, but not enough to remember. That's the result of a catcher ruling the infield with an iron fist.

    Those are just my observations, I could wrong. But I do like what I see.
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