Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 21

Thread: "Average" vs. rate

  1. #1
    High five! nate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Posts
    6,976

    "Average" vs. rate

    Perhaps some of the more math inclined peeps can set me straight here. Apologies if this seems like another one of my "streak" threads; I'm not intending it to be!

    What I wonder, what does one think of when they hear "batting average?" I know stats like BA, OBP and whatnot are sometimes referred to as "rate stats" but do they really measure rate or do they just measure average after the fact?

    For example:
    If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he'll get 3 hits?

    OR

    If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he has a 30% chance of getting a hit in each plate appearance?

    AND

    Is there a difference?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    It measures what has already happened and has no predictive measure.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  4. #3
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,651

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Perhaps some of the more math inclined peeps can set me straight here. Apologies if this seems like another one of my "streak" threads; I'm not intending it to be!

    What I wonder, what does one think of when they hear "batting average?" I know stats like BA, OBP and whatnot are sometimes referred to as "rate stats" but do they really measure rate or do they just measure average after the fact?

    For example:
    If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he'll get 3 hits?

    OR

    If a player has a .300 average and comes to the plate 10 times does that mean he has a 30% chance of getting a hit in each plate appearance?

    AND

    Is there a difference?
    A .300 hitter has gotten a hit 30% of the time.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #4
    Haunted by walks
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    6,586

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    I suppose that raises the question of whether there are any predictive stats. You'd rather have Joey Votto at the plate than Juan Castro, but what predicts what either will do in this one next instance?

  6. #5
    High five! nate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Posts
    6,976

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    It measures what has already happened and has no predictive measure.
    I'm not asking if it does.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #6
    Time is the Revelator. LvJ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2001
    Location
    Chattanooga, TN
    Posts
    7,281

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    I don't see any difference in a guy who is 1-2 in the game already. Doesn't really mean he's going to go 1-2 in his next two ABs.

    Would you rather have someone who is 3-10 off a certain pitcher over a guy who is 0-7? On one hand you say, okay... he's had some success. But then you can say, but this other guy is due for a hit. The game of baseball is all about progressing, changing, learning and getting better which is why I hate those batter vs. pitcher stats, or team vs. team stats. I don't believe them to be predictive atall.
    Hide your power alleys; Hide your wife

  8. #7
    Haunted by walks
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    6,586

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    A 30 percent chance each time up would tend to have some predictive power, but it's not a weather report. Does he have a 100 percent chance this time up and zero percent the next two times up? But what are all these stats for if not to give you an idea of who you want in a certain situation? Adjusting of course for small sample sizes and the enemy, whose stats get a vote too. Joey Votto's performance, over time, measured in stats, shows we want him instead of Juan Castro.

  9. #8
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    10,791

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Statistics never ASSURE performance in the future, but certain statistics in certain sample sizes can predict the LIKELIHOOD of performance in the future.

    Batting average is a type of rate stat. It measures the "rate" of hits per at bat. By contrast, RBIs an HRs are "counting stats."

    This guy likes "counting stats" because you don't have to measure them against anything, you can just "count" them:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-Wd-Q3F8KM
    Last edited by cincinnati chili; 05-24-2009 at 01:01 PM.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    do they really measure rate or do they just measure average after the fact?

    Batting average measures the rate at which a player got a hit?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  11. #10
    High five! nate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Posts
    6,976

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Batting average measures the rate at which a player got a hit?
    Does it?

    That's what I'm asking. I don't think it does.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Bedford, KY
    Posts
    8,992

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    How would it not?
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    1,192

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Does it?

    That's what I'm asking. I don't think it does.
    What exactly are you looking for? Are you trying to differentiate between two players: one who gets say 9 hits in 10 abs and then 0 hits in the next 20 from the player who truly averages say 3 hits every 10 abs? If so look at say the standard deviation instead of the mean (average). Otherwise, average is a rate. It is based upon something, in this case 1.0000.

  14. #13
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Posts
    5,815

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Good to see you posting again rdiersin.

  15. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati/Colerain
    Posts
    1,288

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    I'm not good at debating all these statitical things in baseball, I'll usually lose. But, I do put stock in average. If a Reds pitcher is facing someone whose had over 150 at bats and his batting average is .308, well I think the guy has a pretty good chance of getting a hit compared to most other players. Maybe he will, maybe he wont, But I think average means something.

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,931

    Re: "Average" vs. rate

    Read The Drunkard's Walk. It's a great, accessible primer on statistics and probability.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25