Buster Olney says Reds looking for outfield help!!

[*BaseClogger*]

I'd give the Nix/Gomes platoon more time. Doesn't seem broke yet, so I'm not fixing it.

Yeah, a lot of the names I'm reading are not really impact players. I don't see a significant impact made by a Hairston/DeRosa over the platoon guys we already have in-house. If I were to add somebody at the trade deadline I would make sure that player is getting me over the hump. That's why I was willing to trade the farm for Berkman.

The bolded players really won't give us anything we don't already have:

Matt Holliday
Mark DeRosa
Jermaine Dye
Josh Willingham
Jeremy Hermida
Ben Francisco
Jose Guillen
Adrien Beltre
Keven Kouzmanoff
Scott Hairston
Carlos Lee
Aubrey Huff


Feel free to add names that I might have left off.

Holliday isn't hitting, Lee's contract is too massive, and Huff can't play defense for us. I like Dye and Beltre as rentals. But I'll nominate two more players who we could use at 3B: Tejada and Peralta...

[jojo]

Holliday isn't hitting

That's so last month.

He's in vogue again.

[reds44]

The Reds aren't going to trade for Zimmerman, and the Nationals aren't going to trade him. That's a pipe dream.

I have no problem with upgrading from Nix/Gomes and having both of them on the bench. Nothing wrong with a strong bench.

[osuceltic]

Holliday, Dye, Carlos Lee, maybe Huff, definitely Berkman (if he were made available -- doubtful). Those are the kinds of guys who make sense. If we're talking about some of these marginal guys, just stick with the platoon.

I'm REALLY hoping the St. Louis Walt swings for the fences with one of those big-time bats.

[Jpup]

The Reds aren't going to add salary. Keep that in mind too.

[reds44]

Even if it's only for 2 month for a guy like Dye?

I could see it.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Also put me down as a guy that likes the Nix/Gomes platoon in left. Nothing wrong with that at all.

Like others have mentioned, I wonder if the Reds will look for some help at 3B though. Even when EE comes back, will that solve anything? I don't think so. I'm not convinced at all that EE is a better overall player than Rosales at this point of their careers. Both of them are average at best IMO. Maybe it's time to find a new 3B but no one on this board would probably be happy with the names that would be available. Atkins would certainly be one, maybe DeRosa or Beltre. I don't think the D-Backs want to get rid of a young Mark Reynolds that is on pace for 45 HRs and 35 steals right now. (Yes, I know he won't get there and strikes out a ton, but I'm just giving you the facts.)

[Blitz Dorsey]

Even if it's only for 2 month for a guy like Dye?

I could see it.

I like the idea of trading with the Pale Hose. I mean, they gave us Nick Masset for a washed-up Ken Griffey Jr.

Course, problem is, this deal fell through during the offseason and there might still be some hard feelings. I think the deal was basically Bailey-for-Dye, but the Reds also wanted the Sox to pay most of Dye's contract. Apparently the Sox didn't want to pay it, or pay enough of it, so the deal fell through. Maybe Chicago's asking price would be considerably lower now. Have to think it would. Or maybe they would rather have the draft pick(s) they would get from losing Dye as a free agent after this season instead of getting Homer Bailey. (If the Reds would even be interested in trading Bailey for a two-or-three-month rental, which I don't think they would be.)

[Mario-Rijo]

I don't really understand wanting Beltre. He's currently OPSing .562, his career OPS is lower than EE's career OPS and he's older. With his salary plus whoever we'd have to send along with Edwin to get him; I'd rather take my chances with Edwin. But there's a good chance I'm missing something.

I think buying a bit low on Beltre is ideal for more than one reason. Get him while he is struggling and when he does do the catching up to the back of his baseball card he'll be doing it in Red. And of course there is the added motivation he will probably find sometime soon realizing the hourglass is running out to make this season look really good for his impending FA. Also buying now may get us a slight discount, perhaps. As far as his career OPS is concerned Beltre is .010 less and has played his home games in big parks. For further proof of his playing in those parks hurting his #'s just have a look at his splits and you can see a sizable differential.

Career Home/Away Beltre:

Home: 805 Games, 3176 PA's, .249/.309/.414/.723 (LA/Seattle) .266 BABIP
Away: 812 Games, 3424 PA's, .287/.338/.492/.831 (103 Total XBH's more in just 250 more PA's) .309 BABIP

As you can see here he's a different player when not in a mammoth park. Edwin is a better player at home also, he slugs about 40 points higher at home. In a nutshell at worst they are comparable but Beltre holds a fair edge. I understand EE is younger and has potential however the issue is two fold. #1 We would like to compete right now and #2 Edwins defense has never really improved to a dependable level, which is where Beltre sets himself apart right now. I guess what I'm saying is I am willing to give up a bat who profiles in the future as a 25-30 HR left fielder or 1st baseman who also isn't all that likely to remain a Red (due to the fact he can't stick at 3rd) for the opportunity to start the winning right now. Also we are in the perfect position to offer Beltre arbitration and be prepared to accept him accepting it next year or him not accepting it and we then get an extra 1st rounder.

Sounds like a no brainer too me unless of course Edwin miraculously finds his defensive chops (who wants to bet on that happening?) and then there is no gaurantee he would have as a Red. But that is a risk I'm willing to take for a shot to get the playoffs started in '09 than to wait yet another year.

[Mario-Rijo]

When we here at RZ are allowing prospective trade partners to back up the truck, I'm awfully glad we're not the GM. I understand we have chips to trade, but I'm not emptying the coffers as we suggest here from time to time.

Problem is RM there are times when those prospects have value and yet we know (with very close certainty) they have little to no future, those are times we must allow for the backing up of trucks. The concept should be to maximize every player you have in your organization to the fullest and most times that means trading them away at just the right time. Let's not forget we are not trading them for nothing if we target the right people at the right time as well, we are bringing talent back in as well. Wait too long and they will neither play for you or be of use to obtain another critical piece. At that point what value do they still hold?

The problem comes in when we don't believe in ourselves to know with a high degree of certainty which prospects are which. Frankly I personally feel it's not at all hard to figure out who has a future and who doesn't. We just have to quit kidding ourselves. Certainly we as fans don't have all the information neccessary to make those decisions (Votto comes to mind), but the front office does and should know for the most part. And if for the most part they do then it shouldn't be tough to part with many of the no brainers and keep the obvious guys. Especially now at a time when money is such a critical point of emphasis in negotiations. Unless we trade for a star or are willing to take on a few bucks then we really should not have to part with anyone critical to the future of this organization.

[Hoosier Red]

Holliday isn't hitting, Lee's contract is too massive, and Huff can't play defense for us. I like Dye and Beltre as rentals. But I'll nominate two more players who we could use at 3B: Tejada and Peralta...

Has Tejada played 3B except for the WBC?

[BRM]

Has Tejada played 3B except for the WBC?

He has never played 3B in his major league career. According to BR, he played one game at 3B in the minors at high-A.

[jojo]

I think buying a bit low on Beltre is ideal for more than one reason. Get him while he is struggling and when he does do the catching up to the back of his baseball card he'll be doing it in Red. And of course there is the added motivation he will probably find sometime soon realizing the hourglass is running out to make this season look really good for his impending FA. Also buying now may get us a slight discount, perhaps. As far as his career OPS is concerned Beltre is .010 less and has played his home games in big parks. For further proof of his playing in those parks hurting his #'s just have a look at his splits and you can see a sizable differential.

Career Home/Away Beltre:

Home: 805 Games, 3176 PA's, .249/.309/.414/.723 (LA/Seattle) .266 BABIP
Away: 812 Games, 3424 PA's, .287/.338/.492/.831 (103 Total XBH's more in just 250 more PA's) .309 BABIP

As you can see here he's a different player when not in a mammoth park. Edwin is a better player at home also, he slugs about 40 points higher at home. In a nutshell at worst they are comparable but Beltre holds a fair edge. I understand EE is younger and has potential however the issue is two fold. #1 We would like to compete right now and #2 Edwins defense has never really improved to a dependable level, which is where Beltre sets himself apart right now. I guess what I'm saying is I am willing to give up a bat who profiles in the future as a 25-30 HR left fielder or 1st baseman who also isn't all that likely to remain a Red (due to the fact he can't stick at 3rd) for the opportunity to start the winning right now. Also we are in the perfect position to offer Beltre arbitration and be prepared to accept him accepting it next year or him not accepting it and we then get an extra 1st rounder.

Sounds like a no brainer too me unless of course Edwin miraculously finds his defensive chops (who wants to bet on that happening?) and then there is no gaurantee he would have as a Red. But that is a risk I'm willing to take for a shot to get the playoffs started in '09 than to wait yet another year.

Yes. Beltre is pretty much a victim of hanging with the wrong crowd.

[Will M]

From mlb trade rumors:

Which teams are most likely to become sellers in the next few months leading up to the July 31st trade deadline? To help determine that, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds report. The report gives the following eleven teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs:

Pirates - 9.46%
Giants - 8.78%
Mariners - 6.14%
Rockies: 4.84%
Athletics: 4.36%
White Sox: 4.33%
Marlins: 3.20%
Orioles: 2.77%
Diamondbacks: 2.58%
Astros: 2.25%
Nationals: 0.52%
The report likes the 20-28 Indians more than the 21-25 White Sox, because Cleveland has a better run differential. The report gives the Tribe a 14.4% playoff chance. The Padres have pushed themselves up to 11.94%.

As far as pure offensive production this year, your trade candidate leaders from these eleven are Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Nick Johnson. This year's top pitchers from these non-contenders include Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis. I'm not sure whether Buehrle, Cain, and Rodriguez will actually hit the market.

[Highlifeman21]

here is another name: Russell Branyan!! he has done well this season

BAVG .311
HR 11
RBI 23
OPS 1.006
OBP .398

Salary for 2009 1.4 million!!

Don't toy with me...

We had Branyan before, IIRC he struggled with some injuries, and we turned over the 3B job to Brandon Larson and Aaron Boone.

Now if we ended up getting Branyan back...

... nah, that would never work, his strikeouts would piss off far too many people