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Thread: What to think about Bronson?

  1. #1
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    What to think about Bronson?

    OK, I need help. How are folks thinking about Bronson at this point?

    Guy is 7-3 with an ERA now 5.12 after today's game. He has been absolutely brutal in two of his outings, but in the rest, he really has done a pretty nice job overall. Is this guy just a winner and we shouldn't really worry about his ERA and peripherals? Or is his 7-3 record dumb luck and he is bound to be a .500 pitcher, little more?

    What say ye?

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  3. #2
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    I'm not tremendously worried about his ERA because a good bit of it is tied to the two terrible outings, isn't it? Without those two games letting up nine runs each (dropping 18 ER's and 6.2 innings), his ERA is avery respectable 2.93 (if I'm calculating correctly) - and that's with two other games where he gave up five earned runs.
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  4. #3
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    He is not a stud pitcher, but every staff needs an Arroyo type pitcher who is durable, and aside from the occasional clunker is going to keep the team in the game.

    Salary aside, I'd rather have him than not have him.

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Since his brutal beating against Toronto last year, here are his numbers:

    18-9
    4.04 ERA
    1.23 WHIP
    2.1 K/BB
    6.6 IP/G

    Those are the numbers of a solid #2 pitcher.

    ERA this early can be deceiving, and being a contact pitcher, his peripherals (or FIP) will never be that great. But he keeps the team in the game at a much better rate than his ERA suggests, and he gives you lots of innings.

    I'm happy with him so far.
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  6. #5
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    I think Bronson is a very solid pitcher when he finds his groove. I'm always wondering is this the start he loses it and if so, when does he find it again. He's pretty much stayed in it for a full year now and I won't say he can't keep it up.

    As I said in the game thread (as ludicrous as it sounds), I'd actually shop him right now. I know it would be foolish to deal a pitcher with is record while the club is in a pennant race (especially with questions about EV), btu I'd still listen to offers.

    I'm not saying give him away, by any means, I'm not trying to run him out of town and I doubt seriously I'd get an offer to make it worthwhile, but I'd listen. If i was offered a stud young bat, a solid young SS or a young starter that I thought could help solidfy my nucleus for the next several years, I'd do it.

    It would probably be a stupid thing to do and shows while I'm not a big league GM, but I'd still do it for the right deal.

  7. #6
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    His stuff lends itself to getting bombed occasionally. What is funny is that every time he does, his doom is nye, no one will take him in a trade, and he is overpaid with a bad contract. Then, he goes out and does his job over the next several starts. I think the Reds are getting their money's worth out of him.

  8. #7
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Help by the offense and bullpen in his 10 starts. He also has been solid at times... his ERA has been ballooned by two starts in which he allowed 9 ER in each game (6.2 IP total in those 2 games). Get rid of those two starts and he has a 2.93 ERA. Six QS in 10 games. He deserves credit.

    Help...
    * 5.0 runs per game in support. Above avg. of 4.63 per game.
    * Bullpen has a 2.63 ERA in his starts (avg 3.65 ERA).
    >> Take away one game (5ER in 8IP) and the BP has a 1.13 ERA (16IP, 2ER).
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  9. #8
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    The most underappreciated Red due to his contract. Heck, one not-to-be-named poster called him a borderline mop-up reliever within the last few days. Unbelievable. He is an innings eater who does his job and for me is a joy to watch pitch. Not filthy stuff, but he pitches smart. Despite his carefree image, I think his baseball IQ may be unmatched on the Reds.

  10. #9
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Arroyo has been a streaky pitcher for his entire career. He goes 10 sometimes 15 starts and is virtually unhittable. He then goes 5 or so starts and struggles. To me, it looks like he just gets lazy and drops his arm, flattening out his curveball and dropping the velocity on his fastball into the 80's.
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  11. #10
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Arroyo is a slightly below average starter. He is what he is-rotation glue. Unless he's injured, the Reds should just hand him the ball, not go manic over a poor string of starts and let life run its course until he's run out of the rotation by a better arm (which at this point isn't available).
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  12. #11
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Even if Bronson is merely a league-average pitcher at this point (and his ERA+ since coming over from Boston is a robust 110) he is way, way above the curve in terms of durability. Outside of Halladay and Sabathia I don't know if there's another pitcher in MLB that has been as consistently ready to take the ball as BA.* 113 starts (missing at most a half dozen during those three-plus seasons), 716 IP. His rubber arm adds several million to his value, as far as I'm concerned, especially given this team's reliance on young pitching.

    * I checked this on B-R, and am confident no one in baseball has started as many games as Arroyo since he came over before the 2006 season. Arroyo led the Majors in starts in '06 and '08 and was one off the NL lead in '07.
    Last edited by dsmith421; 05-27-2009 at 11:55 PM.

  13. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Arroyo has always been this way -- hit or miss. When he's on, he's tough to hit. When he's off, he's really off. He's a great example of why looking at a performance average isn't the best way to evaluate a player who performs in chunks of innings at a time.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  14. #13
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Arroyo has always been this way -- hit or miss. When he's on, he's tough to hit. When he's off, he's really off. He's a great example of why looking at a performance average isn't the best way to evaluate a player who performs in chunks of innings at a time.
    Some of his innings make me blow chunks.

  15. #14
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    I think he's generally undervalued. At the beginning of the season, when you're figuring out how to get the innings covered for the year, he's still the guy on this staff you can most confidently write down 200 for. That's very important.

  16. #15
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    Re: What to think about Bronson?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Arroyo is a slightly below average starter. He is what he is-rotation glue.
    There are 150 starters in the majors (30x5).

    A slightly below average starter would be one that ranked about 80th in the majors.

    That would be a guy who went 8-10, with a 5.25 ERA.

    That's not Arroyo, who averaged about 14-11, 4.25 in 3.3 seasons with the Reds.


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