"League average" for starters quoted above is the average production from pitchers in games they started in the major leagues. It's an appropriate baseline that includes those "6th starter" innings.Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
Suggesting that based upon his peripherals, Arroyo is aging into a slightly below average starter using such a baseline is pretty informative.
If one doesn't like average, then use replacement level. Concerning his value, it will get one to the same place though.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Perhaps I don't understand the metric well enough.It's an appropriate baseline that includes those "6th starter" innings.
Let me ask this -- does it take into account the middle-relief innings saved? Seems to me Arroyo's ability to pitch late into games saves about 2/3s of an inning of middle relief per game. Over the course of a season, that's about 65 outs, about 2 and one third games.... Pretty significant, I'd say.
Undoubtedly, and it's likely quite a bit better than that if you compare Arroyo to the median starting pitcher.
The position average usually winds up at around the 65th-70th percentile because the best players get more playing time. The best starting pitchers accumulate more innings. They drag the mean well north of the median in most cases. That's why we're having a discussion about how Arroyo is average, but he's also roughly a top 60 starter. There actually isn't the conflict we think there is.
If you're an average starting pitcher, that's actually a pretty good thing to be. And it gets even better if that pitcher throws the kind of innings Arroyo does. He might be worth an extra a start compared to the median starting pitcher. On top of that, his ability to take the ball every fifth day without fail means he gets a few extra starts on top of the extra innings. Those are starts not going to your #5 guy, and we know what that can look like. I believe Reds #5 starters in recent years have had a component ERA of Holy Schnikes!
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
It's absolutely true that "average" isn't a pejorative. Major average has significant value.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Are you holding to your claim that Arroyo is below average?It's absolutely true that "average" isn't a pejorative.
I really don't see a lot of disagreement here.
JoJo is saying that Arroyo, stat wise, is a slightly below average pitcher who can give you more innings than an average pitcher.
I could be wrong, but it seems like the opposing view is that Arroyo might have slightly below average stats, depending on whether you are using median or mean, but that he has more value because he gives the team more innings and has been durable.
Those views seem to be the same, if I understand them and have summarized them correctly.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I don't get it either.
My disagreement with jojo lies in my belief that the stats he has cited to support his claim that Arroyo is below average are a) thin (many of the stats he cites show Arroyo to be above average) and b) flawed. The stat that does support Arroyo being below average -- recent fielding-independent ERA -- does not account for the ERA benefit he provides the team by logging innings and taking lots of starts, thereby relieving the team of the burden of having middle relievers and 5th/6th starters pitch the equivalent of a handful of games.I really don't see a lot of disagreement here.
JoJo is saying that Arroyo, stat wise, is a slightly below average pitcher who can give you more innings than an average pitcher.
I could be wrong, but it seems like the opposing view is that Arroyo might have slightly below average stats, depending on whether you are using median or mean, but that he has more value because he gives the team more innings and has been durable.
Those views seem to be the same, if I understand them and have summarized them correctly.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Bronson hasn't had an above average FIP since '07 and his numbers are suggesting a trend toward back end. Unless he turns something around dramatically, Arroyo's not very likely to be average this season given the scary contact rate hitters have achieved against him during the first third of a season. Really such a trend isn't that out of whack for an arm his age.
Logging innings is great and it's one of the reasons why there were "only" roughly 70 starters in mlb that had a higher WAR (wins above replacement-i.e. runs better than "6th starter") in 2008 that Arroyo. I don't think Bronson is as bad as his current '09 looks but his last 44 starts have collectively been below average and that has to color expectations going forward.
Burning innings with a FIP around 4.50 is fine. In fact, it's exactly what he's being paid to do ($10M/yr and 2 WAR= roughly $10M in value). Burning innings with a FIP approaching 5.00 however is Ryan Franklin.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Thought I'd bump this up for tonight's game. Granted no singular game (or string of games) can tell you the true worth of a player, either good or bad, as we all know (or at least most of us), but tonight's game is a perfect chance for Bronson to "prove" his worth to the Reds or as a major league starting pitching. W/ Voltron only going an inning last night, the Reds desperatly need 7 innings of 4-5 run baseball from their starter (or better), which is kind of Bronson's calling card: Don't get killed, go deep in a game, and give your team a chance to win while giving the Bullpen a night off. He's gone 8 & 9 innings his last 2 games while giving up only 1 run in each game. Another performance like that could go a long way towards winning this 4 game series.
Tough lineup for him to navigate, all those LH's and Pujols. He'll need to bring his A game tonight.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
This is on Lance's blog today...thought it was appropriate for this thread:
Compare and contrast career numbers
Pitcher A: 74-71, 4.25 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, .270 BA, .321 OBP, .446 SLG, .762 OPS (Harang)
Pitcher B: 78-73, 4.35 ERA, 1.347 WHIP, .268 BA, .329 OBP, .437 SLG, .762 OPS (Arroyo)
Bronson pitched another good game tonight, unfortunately, the boxscore doesn't show it because of Willy Taveras.
Yes...a shame indeed. He should have been out of the 6th w/ only 3 runs. His stuff was good tonight, and the 5 k's were good sign too.
Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand
He pitched very well last night, once he got through the 1st.
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