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Thread: Checking in on the top prospects

  1. #16
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Great thread.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    26. Jeremy Horst - Consistently under-rated. Horst has a 2.19 ERA with 36K against 15 BB in 53.333 IP at A+. A 6'4" lefty, he should be on the prospect radar. (Rising)


    Right on. I realize that ERA is not the most telling stat, but it's interesting that, as Horst has moved up, his ERAs have trended down. 2007: 3.24. 2008: 2.38. 2009: 2.21.

    I suppose that might be expected for a guy who went to high school in North Dakota. Combining all that with the fact that he's a 6-4, 220-pound lefty, you've got to like his profile.

    Curiously, Baseball Reference has him born in Savannah, Ga. The Reds' media guide has him born in Cheyenne, Wyo. High school in North Dakota. Community college in Iowa. Lives now in Wisconsin. Hmm.

  4. #18
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    26. Jeremy Horst - Consistently under-rated. Horst has a 2.19 ERA with 36K against 15 BB in 53.333 IP at A+. A 6'4" lefty, he should be on the prospect radar. (Rising)


    Right on. I realize that ERA is not the most telling stat, but it's interesting that, as Horst has moved up, his ERAs have trended down. 2007: 3.24. 2008: 2.38. 2009: 2.21.

    I suppose that might be expected for a guy who went to high school in North Dakota. Combining all that with the fact that he's a 6-4, 220-pound lefty, you've got to like his profile.

    Curiously, Baseball Reference has him born in Savannah, Ga. The Reds' media guide has him born in Cheyenne, Wyo. High school in North Dakota. Community college in Iowa. Lives now in Wisconsin. Hmm.
    He was born in Wyoming, but didn't grow up there. He was a military kid and moved some, but grew up in North Dakota for the most part as a kid.

  5. #19
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Nice update.

    I like players like Heisey and Horst who came out of small programs and, when faced with stronger competition, have adjusted and continued to improve. It is to the Reds credit that they found them.

    Admittedly, it is still early, but there are other upside surprises.

    At Dayton:
    I don't think anyone expected Fairel to be so dominating. A relatively unheralded Puckett has shown surprising power and has been dropped into the 4 spot. Lance Janke has put up good numbers as a starter, great K/BB and low BAA. Put him in the small program adjuster category.

    At Sarasota:
    Valiquette is getting some traction as LH power arm reliever. Del Rosario has emerged as a good relief prospect, good BB/K, low BAA, and great GB %.

    At Carolina:
    Alex Smit is showing potential as a starter, high K/9 and low BAA. Ondrusek is putting up great numbers as a reliever, low H/9, low BAA, and high GB %. Even Avery has shown improvement and is showing why the Reds have been so patient with him.

  6. #20
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Lance Janke has put up good numbers as a starter, great K/BB and low BAA. Put him in the small program adjuster category.

    I understand the point about Janke, since he played at San Diego Christian College. But I think there's an important difference in his background and, say, Horst's. Or Joey Votto's. Growing up in San Diego, Janke had the opportunity to play baseball year-round, and against good competition. That opportunity doesn't exist in North Dakota or Canada. I'd expect that the players who grew up there enter pro ball considerably more raw than the average prospect, and consequently with more room for improvement.

    Anyway, good post.

  7. #21
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    I think most have been touched that I would have discussed Soto, Roenicke, Alonso etc. Frazier though is a guy who I will withold judgement on right now but have his quirky swing in the back of my mind. I think if he weren't hitting at all I'd be closing in on officially concerned but his HR's are all that's down and too me it's just too soon to be overly concerned about that. But good list anyway Mth.

    Oh and even though he's not in RZ's top 30 my man Sean Henry is still doing well also.
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 05-28-2009 at 06:42 PM.
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  8. #22
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    mth123....think you should start putting Cody Puckett in this list?

  9. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by DTCromer View Post
    Well, there's 3-4 guys on that list that are with the Reds and they're still "prospects." Hanigan, Rosales, Dickerson, Herrera and guys like Fisher and shouldn't be considered "prospects" anymore since they're established themselves pretty well.

    I vehemently disagree with Yonder as "unchanged." Except for the first 10 games or so, he's been hitting the hell out of the ball. In fact, he's hitting .327 since those first 9 games and has had a hit in 26 of the last 27 games. The only game he didn't have a hit, the game only went 5 innings and had 2 official AB's so we could legitimately be looking at a 25+ game hitting streak.
    This is based on the off-season Redszone rankings when these prospects were voted on. Guys like Hanigan, Dickerson, Fisher, Herrera and Rosales were still prospects when the list was compiled and this is the update on the top 30 from that list.

    As for Yonder, he was voted number 1. If your point is unchanged is not a good ranking, I ask how he could be rising from the number 1 spot? The only choices were unchanged and dropping in his case. FWIW, I think most thought he would dominate at A+ and should have gone directly to AA. He hasn't dominated the league, in that sense, he's a bit of a disappointment.

    Oh and sorry for all the typos everyone. Got a little rushed this morning.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-28-2009 at 08:59 PM.
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  10. #24
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    mth123....think you should start putting Cody Puckett in this list?
    I didn't have time to go into guys that weren't ranked in the voting, but you're right that Puckett has been good. As has Fairel, Smit, Avery, Janke etc. as others have pointed out. Feel free to expand on your Puckett comments. I'd like to know more about his defense.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-28-2009 at 10:05 PM.
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  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    mth seems pretty pessimistic to me. I wouldn't really say Soto and Frazier are dropping as of yet. You have to take age (Soto) and level change (both) into consideration. IMO it is a little too early to pass much of a judgment especially on guys who are making a level change.
    I agree that its a little early to be judging too harshly, but its the end of May and the numbers are where the numbers are. Frazier and Soto were ranked that high on the basis of hitting everywhere they go. So far they haven't, so maybe the rankings were optimistic. I see your point and actually think they'll get it together, but right now there seems to be a chink in the armor and they probably fall a few notches behind Stubbs, Heisey, Stewart etc.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  12. #26
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Good list, agree mostly, but not on Roenicke. He's obviously still working things out at AAA. Probably making his pitches a little too good to avoid walks.

    But in 17.1 innings has 21 Ks and 2 BBs. No homers allowed. 1.38 GO/FO rate.

    He's allowed 22 hits, too many, and his ERA is 4 plus. But with so few innings, relievers ERAs tend to be very easily changed. Roenicke had a couple bad outings early that hurt his ERA.

    Again, the two walks total is so low that it tells me he is intently trying to avoid walks and has been hit some because of it. Still developing, but the power pitching numbers are there.

    I wouldn't classify him as dropping, not at all.
    You may be right. I was actually surprised to see an ERA above 4 and more hits than IP. I probably over-reacted in his case. I agree that he may be taking too much off to get the ball over, but the fact that he has to is a reason for concern IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #27
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    You may be right. I was actually surprised to see an ERA above 4 and more hits than IP. I probably over-reacted in his case. I agree that he may be taking too much off to get the ball over, but the fact that he has to is a reason for concern IMO.
    It could have something to do with the fact he has a terrible defense behind him also.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Curiously, Baseball Reference has him born in Savannah, Ga. The Reds' media guide has him born in Cheyenne, Wyo. High school in North Dakota. Community college in Iowa. Lives now in Wisconsin. Hmm.
    Maybe he's been in the Witness Protection program.
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I agree. April was very rough and compounded with the rough plate discipline (0 walks and 10 Ks) he carried a .232 BABIP in the month. May has been more like the Neftali Soto we know. He has a 5.75% walk rate, a 12.5% K rate, lots of line drives and is hitting over .300 with solid power. Its early. We have to have some patience with these guys, I think we rush into judgement too often when we look at numbers. Step back and ask, has the guys skillset changed? With a guy like Soto, the numbers obviously suggest that no, the skillset has not.
    Soto has been disappointing. It doesn't mean he's a bust. But 9 extra base hits in 43 games is poor from a guy projected to be a power hitting prospect. Has his skill set changed, you ask? You say the numbers say no. From the stats, I see a blossoming contact hitter, with little power this year and no OB ability to speak of. Not a good skill set for a 3B, in my opinion.

  16. #30
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Checking in on the top prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    Soto has been disappointing. It doesn't mean he's a bust. But 9 extra base hits in 43 games is poor from a guy projected to be a power hitting prospect. Has his skill set changed, you ask? You say the numbers say no. From the stats, I see a blossoming contact hitter, with little power this year and no OB ability to speak of. Not a good skill set for a 3B, in my opinion.


    There are two big outliers in there. August of 2007 when Soto was injured and April of 2009. Every other month in there looks fairly similar.

    Soto's skillset is looking like a high average, low walk, strong power type of player. Say .300/.350/.500 type of hitter. Think Aramis Ramirez. Look past his 'season' stats at this point, its skewed majorly by 1 bad month right now.


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