End of May top 40

[mth123]

Earlier this week we checked in on the Redszone top 30 prosepcts. Below I have posted my revised rankings for the end of May. I left as ineligible some of Redszone's top 40 from the winter. Chris Dickerson (Redszone had at #10, I had at #6), Carlos Fisher (19, 14), Ryan Hanigan (21, 18), Adam Rosales (23, 21), Paul Janish (NR, 40) and Danny Rae Herrea (33, 33). I also don't feel comfortable rating the recent international guys who haven't played. Redszone had Duran at 9, Rodriguez at 13, Guillon at 35 and Arias at 37.

So here is the new list. After the name I've included my current ranking, Redszone's winter ranking and my personal old ranking (as if anyone cares).
The columns aren't perfect on some of the longer names, but you'll get the point OK I think.

Name	My New	RZ	My Old
Alonso	1	1	1
Stubbs	2	4	4
Stewart	3	14	17
Heisey	4	20	12
Frazier	5	2	2
Soto	6	3	3
Maloney	7	18	15
Smith	8	38	39
Cozart	9	17	9
Roenicke10	15	10
Sulbaran11	29	36
Horst	12	26	35
Francisco13	8	11
Wood	14	25	27
Ramirez	15	16	13
Valaika	16	5	16
Viola	17	27	26
Fairel	18	NR	NR
Manuel	19	31	30
Henry	20	32	20
Sappelt	21	39	32
Parker	22	NR	29
Reed	23	NR	46
Dorn	24	12	8
Avery	25	NR	NR
Buchholz26	24	23
Puckett	27	NR	NR
Thompson28	7	7
Lotzkar	29	6	5
Buck	30	22	22
Jukich	31	36	24
Valiquette32	40	38
Smit	33	NR	NR
Mesoraco34	11	19
Ondrusek35	NR	NR
Lecure	36	30	25
Cumberland37	41	28
Watson	38	34	31
Hild'brandt39	28	34
Tatum	40	NR	41

Time to quibble and post your own list.

[Dude Rock]

I'd probably move Wood, Fairel, Henry and Puckett higher up the list, IMHO.

[Homer Bailey]

I'll admit that I haven't followed the minors for many years, but is 2 hot months really worthy of that big of a spike in a guys prospect rank (re: Heisey?). Granted, I'm extremely excited about the kid, but his career numbers are nowhere near the numbers he's posted so far. However, I feel like you guys know a lot more about ranking guys than I do.

[dougdirt]

I'll admit that I haven't followed the minors for many years, but is 2 hot months really worthy of that big of a spike in a guys prospect rank (re: Heisey?). Granted, I'm extremely excited about the kid, but his career numbers are nowhere near the numbers he's posted so far. However, I feel like you guys know a lot more about ranking guys than I do.

Well generally two months isn't much to rely on numbers. When its things like this I tend to focus on a simple question 'has his skillset changed?'. Heisey did change a little bit in his hitting mechanics between last year and this year and well, its really starting to pay off in big ways for him. His 'tools' may not have changed, but I think his skillset has because he can now use his 'tools' at the plate a little bit better because of the changes that he has made.

[lollipopcurve]

Well generally two months isn't much to rely on numbers. When its things like this I tend to focus on a simple question 'has his skillset changed?'. Heisey did change a little bit in his hitting mechanics between last year and this year and well, its really starting to pay off in big ways for him. His 'tools' may not have changed, but I think his skillset has because he can now use his 'tools' at the plate a little bit better because of the changes that he has made.

There's no question Heisey has exploded this year. But I think it was already evident he was a vastly underrated prospect in the Reds system. People were focused on Stubbs while Heisey was putting up better numbers -- during 08 in the States and then in winter ball.

[dougdirt]

There's no question Heisey has exploded this year. But I think it was already evident he was a vastly underrated prospect in the Reds system. People were focused on Stubbs while Heisey was putting up better numbers -- during 08 in the States and then in winter ball.

I don't know if he was vastly underrated really. Numbers in the minor leagues don't mean everything. Heisey has turned into a better prospect because it appears his skillset changed, not because he started having better numbers.

[Mario-Rijo]

Well generally two months isn't much to rely on numbers. When its things like this I tend to focus on a simple question 'has his skillset changed?'. Heisey did change a little bit in his hitting mechanics between last year and this year and well, its really starting to pay off in big ways for him. His 'tools' may not have changed, but I think his skillset has because he can now use his 'tools' at the plate a little bit better because of the changes that he has made.

What has he tweaked Doug? From the looks of it he seems to have a bit more pop than before so I can only assume and there are more than a few ways to accomplish that depending on what he was doing before.

[dougdirt]

What has he tweaked Doug? From the looks of it he seems to have a bit more pop than before so I can only assume and there are more than a few ways to accomplish that depending on what he was doing before.

He changed his step in his swing and its leading to better timing, ultimately leading to more power. He also has stated he is going the other way with the ball more.

[Mario-Rijo]

He changed his step in his swing and its leading to better timing, ultimately leading to more power. He also has stated he is going the other way with the ball more.

Thanks for the info. BTW are you becoming thee Reds guru on the net or what? I see you on almost every Reds site, or someone making mention of you. Where do you find the time?

[Mario-Rijo]

I disagree with your list Mth. Personally I still have Frazier #2 and Soto #3, although I think it could it could go either way with them. After that maybe I move a few guys a notch here and there and a few a handful of spots, I don't see a real massive change in the rankings overall.

Lotzkar I move down, still having that injury is disconcerting. Same with Thompson and maybe Buck a spot or 2. Valaika I may move a spot or 2 down just because I am becoming less certain he will stick at SS. Heisey up a few notches with his improved pop.

Something like this is how I see it currently.

Alonso
Frazier
Soto
Stubbs
Valaika
Heisey
Stewart
Smith
Maloney
Roenicke
Viola
Fisher
Dorn
Bucholz
Lotzkar
Pawelek
Wood
Sulbaran
Horst
Henry
Parker
Cozart
Thompson
Mesoraco
Lutz
Buck
Ramirez
Manuel
Fairel
Valiquette
Cline
Shunick
Puckett
Sappelt

I guess I dropped Lotzkar, Thompson & Mes a little further than I thought but pretty close to before I think. And from what I have read Pawelek is looking like a possible diamond in the rough.

[dougdirt]

Thanks for the info. BTW are you becoming thee Reds guru on the net or what? I see you on almost every Reds site, or someone making mention of you. Where do you find the time?

Its what I do. It pays most of my bills.

[Mario-Rijo]

Its what I do. It pays most of my bills.

What a gig, where can I sign up?

[mth123]

I disagree with your list Mth. Personally I still have Frazier #2 and Soto #3, although I think it could it could go either way with them. After that maybe I move a few guys a notch here and there and a few a handful of spots, I don't see a real massive change in the rankings overall.

I can see that. I was higher on Heisey than the board was and had him at number 12 over the winter so for me, it isn't as big a move. Many of the guys I had ahead of him are injured (Thompson and Lotzkar), having poor seasons (Dorn) or ineligible (Dickerson). I am also skeptical of Valaika (had him at number 16 over the winter) and to a lesser degree Frazier of being able to nail down a position at the major league level that the bat will justify. I've never liked the Todd Walker offense first model in the middle infield and I just don't know if they have the bats to carry a corner spot. Frazier seems to have gone a little nuts lately so that makes me feel a bit better. All three of Frazier, Soto and Valaika have some plate discipline issues with Frazier seeming to be the best of the three in that area. I moved Stubbs up to number two, but prefer Heisey at this point. I think Stubbs 1st round pedigree may give him more trade value, so he stays ahead of Heisey.

I can't ignore what the pitchers are doing and guys like Stewart, Smith, Maloney, Horst, Fairel, Sulbaran and Wood have made the biggest moves for me.

[lollipopcurve]

I don't know if he was vastly underrated really. Numbers in the minor leagues don't mean everything. Heisey has turned into a better prospect because it appears his skillset changed, not because he started having better numbers.

So, if every player tweaked his mechanics or tried going the other way more -- as you claim Heisey has decided to do -- would they all see great improvement? Players are doing that stuff all the time, and a lot of time it leads nowhere.

I disagree with your assessment, Doug. What Heisey has done is, in a fundamental way, an outgrowth of skills he has been polishing over the course of his minor league career. If you had followed his career closely, you'd have seen a player who was improving his BB:K ratio and power numbers year by year and playing with remarkable consistency. I've been saying he is Stubbs' equal, at least, as a prospect -- and could be the Reds' leadoff hitter of the future -- since last season, when the general assessment on this board, including your take I think, was that he was a marginal, 4th OF prospect. The track record was there, his well-rounded skillset was clearly established. To claim he magically acquired skills sometime between the end of the 08 season and the beginning of 09 is a somewhat naive view of how professional baseball players develop.

[dougdirt]

So, if every player tweaked his mechanics or tried going the other way more -- as you claim Heisey has decided to do -- would they all see great improvement? Players are doing that stuff all the time, and a lot of time it leads nowhere.

No, they wouldn't all see great improvement. However when they do tweak the right thing and we do see improvement, we have to reassess the players overall skillset because it may have changed.

I disagree with your assessment, Doug. What Heisey has done is, in a fundamental way, an outgrowth of skills he has been polishing over the course of his minor league career. If you had followed his career closely, you'd have seen a player who was improving his BB:K ratio and power numbers year by year and playing with remarkable consistency. I've been saying he is Stubbs' equal, at least, as a prospect -- and could be the Reds' leadoff hitter of the future -- since last season, when the general assessment on this board, including your take I think, was that he was a marginal, 4th OF prospect.

I have followed his career closely and I did think his skillset was likely that of a 4th outfielder, Chris Denorfia like even, prior to this season.

The track record was there, his well-rounded skillset was clearly established. To claim he magically acquired skills sometime between the end of the 08 season and the beginning of 09 is a somewhat naive view of how professional baseball players develop.

Its not that he magically acquired skills, its that he took his skills from X to Y by making adjustments to his swing. From what he has said, he worked his butt off to do so this offseason between Puerto Rico (winter ball) and then this spring with Ryan Jackson.