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Thread: End of May top 40

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    End of May top 40

    Earlier this week we checked in on the Redszone top 30 prosepcts. Below I have posted my revised rankings for the end of May. I left as ineligible some of Redszone's top 40 from the winter. Chris Dickerson (Redszone had at #10, I had at #6), Carlos Fisher (19, 14), Ryan Hanigan (21, 18), Adam Rosales (23, 21), Paul Janish (NR, 40) and Danny Rae Herrea (33, 33). I also don't feel comfortable rating the recent international guys who haven't played. Redszone had Duran at 9, Rodriguez at 13, Guillon at 35 and Arias at 37.

    So here is the new list. After the name I've included my current ranking, Redszone's winter ranking and my personal old ranking (as if anyone cares).
    The columns aren't perfect on some of the longer names, but you'll get the point OK I think.
    Code:
    Name	My New	RZ	My Old
    Alonso	1	1	1
    Stubbs	2	4	4
    Stewart	3	14	17
    Heisey	4	20	12
    Frazier	5	2	2
    Soto	6	3	3
    Maloney	7	18	15
    Smith	8	38	39
    Cozart	9	17	9
    Roenicke10	15	10
    Sulbaran11	29	36
    Horst	12	26	35
    Francisco13	8	11
    Wood	14	25	27
    Ramirez	15	16	13
    Valaika	16	5	16
    Viola	17	27	26
    Fairel	18	NR	NR
    Manuel	19	31	30
    Henry	20	32	20
    Sappelt	21	39	32
    Parker	22	NR	29
    Reed	23	NR	46
    Dorn	24	12	8
    Avery	25	NR	NR
    Buchholz26	24	23
    Puckett	27	NR	NR
    Thompson28	7	7
    Lotzkar	29	6	5
    Buck	30	22	22
    Jukich	31	36	24
    Valiquette32	40	38
    Smit	33	NR	NR
    Mesoraco34	11	19
    Ondrusek35	NR	NR
    Lecure	36	30	25
    Cumberland37	41	28
    Watson	38	34	31
    Hild'brandt39	28	34
    Tatum	40	NR	41
    Time to quibble and post your own list.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #2
    Dude Rock
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    Re: End of May top 40

    I'd probably move Wood, Fairel, Henry and Puckett higher up the list, IMHO.

  4. #3
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    I'll admit that I haven't followed the minors for many years, but is 2 hot months really worthy of that big of a spike in a guys prospect rank (re: Heisey?). Granted, I'm extremely excited about the kid, but his career numbers are nowhere near the numbers he's posted so far. However, I feel like you guys know a lot more about ranking guys than I do.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    I'll admit that I haven't followed the minors for many years, but is 2 hot months really worthy of that big of a spike in a guys prospect rank (re: Heisey?). Granted, I'm extremely excited about the kid, but his career numbers are nowhere near the numbers he's posted so far. However, I feel like you guys know a lot more about ranking guys than I do.
    Well generally two months isn't much to rely on numbers. When its things like this I tend to focus on a simple question 'has his skillset changed?'. Heisey did change a little bit in his hitting mechanics between last year and this year and well, its really starting to pay off in big ways for him. His 'tools' may not have changed, but I think his skillset has because he can now use his 'tools' at the plate a little bit better because of the changes that he has made.

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    Re: End of May top 40

    Well generally two months isn't much to rely on numbers. When its things like this I tend to focus on a simple question 'has his skillset changed?'. Heisey did change a little bit in his hitting mechanics between last year and this year and well, its really starting to pay off in big ways for him. His 'tools' may not have changed, but I think his skillset has because he can now use his 'tools' at the plate a little bit better because of the changes that he has made.
    There's no question Heisey has exploded this year. But I think it was already evident he was a vastly underrated prospect in the Reds system. People were focused on Stubbs while Heisey was putting up better numbers -- during 08 in the States and then in winter ball.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    There's no question Heisey has exploded this year. But I think it was already evident he was a vastly underrated prospect in the Reds system. People were focused on Stubbs while Heisey was putting up better numbers -- during 08 in the States and then in winter ball.
    I don't know if he was vastly underrated really. Numbers in the minor leagues don't mean everything. Heisey has turned into a better prospect because it appears his skillset changed, not because he started having better numbers.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well generally two months isn't much to rely on numbers. When its things like this I tend to focus on a simple question 'has his skillset changed?'. Heisey did change a little bit in his hitting mechanics between last year and this year and well, its really starting to pay off in big ways for him. His 'tools' may not have changed, but I think his skillset has because he can now use his 'tools' at the plate a little bit better because of the changes that he has made.
    What has he tweaked Doug? From the looks of it he seems to have a bit more pop than before so I can only assume and there are more than a few ways to accomplish that depending on what he was doing before.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    What has he tweaked Doug? From the looks of it he seems to have a bit more pop than before so I can only assume and there are more than a few ways to accomplish that depending on what he was doing before.
    He changed his step in his swing and its leading to better timing, ultimately leading to more power. He also has stated he is going the other way with the ball more.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He changed his step in his swing and its leading to better timing, ultimately leading to more power. He also has stated he is going the other way with the ball more.
    Thanks for the info. BTW are you becoming thee Reds guru on the net or what? I see you on almost every Reds site, or someone making mention of you. Where do you find the time?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    I disagree with your list Mth. Personally I still have Frazier #2 and Soto #3, although I think it could it could go either way with them. After that maybe I move a few guys a notch here and there and a few a handful of spots, I don't see a real massive change in the rankings overall.

    Lotzkar I move down, still having that injury is disconcerting. Same with Thompson and maybe Buck a spot or 2. Valaika I may move a spot or 2 down just because I am becoming less certain he will stick at SS. Heisey up a few notches with his improved pop.

    Something like this is how I see it currently.

    Alonso
    Frazier
    Soto
    Stubbs
    Valaika
    Heisey
    Stewart
    Smith
    Maloney
    Roenicke
    Viola
    Fisher
    Dorn
    Bucholz
    Lotzkar
    Pawelek
    Wood
    Sulbaran
    Horst
    Henry
    Parker
    Cozart
    Thompson
    Mesoraco
    Lutz
    Buck
    Ramirez
    Manuel
    Fairel
    Valiquette
    Cline
    Shunick
    Puckett
    Sappelt

    I guess I dropped Lotzkar, Thompson & Mes a little further than I thought but pretty close to before I think. And from what I have read Pawelek is looking like a possible diamond in the rough.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Thanks for the info. BTW are you becoming thee Reds guru on the net or what? I see you on almost every Reds site, or someone making mention of you. Where do you find the time?
    Its what I do. It pays most of my bills.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Its what I do. It pays most of my bills.
    What a gig, where can I sign up?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I disagree with your list Mth. Personally I still have Frazier #2 and Soto #3, although I think it could it could go either way with them. After that maybe I move a few guys a notch here and there and a few a handful of spots, I don't see a real massive change in the rankings overall.
    I can see that. I was higher on Heisey than the board was and had him at number 12 over the winter so for me, it isn't as big a move. Many of the guys I had ahead of him are injured (Thompson and Lotzkar), having poor seasons (Dorn) or ineligible (Dickerson). I am also skeptical of Valaika (had him at number 16 over the winter) and to a lesser degree Frazier of being able to nail down a position at the major league level that the bat will justify. I've never liked the Todd Walker offense first model in the middle infield and I just don't know if they have the bats to carry a corner spot. Frazier seems to have gone a little nuts lately so that makes me feel a bit better. All three of Frazier, Soto and Valaika have some plate discipline issues with Frazier seeming to be the best of the three in that area. I moved Stubbs up to number two, but prefer Heisey at this point. I think Stubbs 1st round pedigree may give him more trade value, so he stays ahead of Heisey.

    I can't ignore what the pitchers are doing and guys like Stewart, Smith, Maloney, Horst, Fairel, Sulbaran and Wood have made the biggest moves for me.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: End of May top 40

    I don't know if he was vastly underrated really. Numbers in the minor leagues don't mean everything. Heisey has turned into a better prospect because it appears his skillset changed, not because he started having better numbers.
    So, if every player tweaked his mechanics or tried going the other way more -- as you claim Heisey has decided to do -- would they all see great improvement? Players are doing that stuff all the time, and a lot of time it leads nowhere.

    I disagree with your assessment, Doug. What Heisey has done is, in a fundamental way, an outgrowth of skills he has been polishing over the course of his minor league career. If you had followed his career closely, you'd have seen a player who was improving his BB:K ratio and power numbers year by year and playing with remarkable consistency. I've been saying he is Stubbs' equal, at least, as a prospect -- and could be the Reds' leadoff hitter of the future -- since last season, when the general assessment on this board, including your take I think, was that he was a marginal, 4th OF prospect. The track record was there, his well-rounded skillset was clearly established. To claim he magically acquired skills sometime between the end of the 08 season and the beginning of 09 is a somewhat naive view of how professional baseball players develop.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: End of May top 40

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So, if every player tweaked his mechanics or tried going the other way more -- as you claim Heisey has decided to do -- would they all see great improvement? Players are doing that stuff all the time, and a lot of time it leads nowhere.
    No, they wouldn't all see great improvement. However when they do tweak the right thing and we do see improvement, we have to reassess the players overall skillset because it may have changed.

    I disagree with your assessment, Doug. What Heisey has done is, in a fundamental way, an outgrowth of skills he has been polishing over the course of his minor league career. If you had followed his career closely, you'd have seen a player who was improving his BB:K ratio and power numbers year by year and playing with remarkable consistency. I've been saying he is Stubbs' equal, at least, as a prospect -- and could be the Reds' leadoff hitter of the future -- since last season, when the general assessment on this board, including your take I think, was that he was a marginal, 4th OF prospect.
    I have followed his career closely and I did think his skillset was likely that of a 4th outfielder, Chris Denorfia like even, prior to this season.

    The track record was there, his well-rounded skillset was clearly established. To claim he magically acquired skills sometime between the end of the 08 season and the beginning of 09 is a somewhat naive view of how professional baseball players develop.
    Its not that he magically acquired skills, its that he took his skills from X to Y by making adjustments to his swing. From what he has said, he worked his butt off to do so this offseason between Puerto Rico (winter ball) and then this spring with Ryan Jackson.


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