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Thread: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

  1. #1
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/b...lipboard090601

    However, there are good reasons to think that average is going to be on the way up in the future. Bruce is simply too talented to hit in that range for long, especially in light of the improvements in his approach at the plate. The other reason is purely statistical. Bruce has an extremely unlucky .221 batting average on balls in play (as opposed to a .298 mark his rookie season, which was right around the norm).

    How unlucky is that number? It is the third-worst BABIP mark in baseball, behind only Brian Giles and Garrett Atkins, and that's likely to even out over the balance of the season.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    I think he'll have a good second half this year. I look forward to the day that Bruce is hitting well, EE is healthy and hitting well, and Votto is healthy. When that day comes and the pitching continues to do well the Reds will be one tough team to beat.
    We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous

    Edit: his third game in a row. I forgot Braun robbed him in Milwaukee on sunday of extra bases
    Last edited by Ghosts of 1990; 06-02-2009 at 08:26 PM.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    2nd straight game he's hit a rocket at someone and caught. This is getting ridiculous
    he needs to get a gun and start shooting at the fielder nearest the ball. try catching it then.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    People are starting to take notice:

    http://twinkillingsite.blogspot.com/...jay-bruce.html
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Interesting take on the situation, but I'm not sure I completely buy it. His poor approach has led to a lot of wasted ABs this year more than hitting into "bad luck" IMHO.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been.

    Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over.

    Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B.

    So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.
    His line drive rate is one of the worst in the league which plays a significant factor in BABIP.

    I would direct you here for a good write up of Bruces struggles -

    http://www.redreporter.com/2009/6/3/...g-and-talented

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    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruce32 View Post
    The stat BABIP being low has nothing to do with poor approach and more to do with hitting it right at people.
    I wasn't referring to his BABIP. I said his bigger issue has been his poor approach at the plate, which has seen him waste a lot of ABs. If you take those out of the equation, his "bad luck" would not be magnified like it is now.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by DTCromer View Post
    How much longer until we stop excusing Jay for being so bad? My favorite stat, BA w/ RISP. . . he's terrible at and always has been.

    Yes, Jay is 22 but he's having the same problems at the plate that he's been having in the minors. The worst AB I've ever seen came from Jay. I went to a Louisville game last year less than a month prior to his call up. The pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls. Jay comes up and what does he do? He swings at the first pitch (up and out of the strike zone, mind you) and pops it up. Next guy GIDP. . . inning over.

    Worst. AB. Ever. That was my first inclination that this guy A) still has a lot of learning to do or B) Really is that dumb at the plate. I'm beginning to think it's B.

    So I think the question is, when we do stop excusing Jay from a lot of his wasted AB's? I feel like this is Adam Dunn: Part Deux.
    This is a tremendously flawed line of thinking. A pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls...so that's an automatic take right? Wrong... While it is technically smart baseball to take a strike, it is not smart on the flip side to take the best possible pitch that you might see if it's a get-over fastball. If the pitcher decides 'I need to get one in there' and grooves a pitch right down the middle, is it a good take in any scenario? You ALWAYS go up to the plate ready to swing regardless of circumstances, and if the first pitch is a meatball after 8 straight balls, I have no problem with that. If you know for a fact that that was a horrible pitch he swung at, then I will condemn that. But if he hits a 3-run homer on that pitch, he's your hero. Get off his nuts...it happens to the best of them...

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    You know, I'm starting to be really worried about this whole " Bruce is "UNLUCKY" because of his BAPIP" crap.
    Even though his LD% is very low, some people are still clinging to this.

    I just hope it's not the "same" "Unlucky" that had everyong clinging to Matt Belisle for so long. His BAPIPA - BAPIP against - was so "unlucky", and everyone was convinced he would turn it around because his FIP and DIP ERA, etc, etc, was so good.
    Now, he's practically out of baseball.

    My take on Belisle was - MAYBE he's so "UNLUCKY" with his BAPIPA because, oh I don't know - HIS STUFF SUCKS?!?!? Maybe being "UNLUCKY" really means he's tossing up softball practice. If your stuff isn't good, then more likely people are hitting your BIP "harder" than normal, which will more often result in fast grounders that are more likely to get through holes, more solid LD's that are harder to get to because they are rockets, etc, etc...

    I haven't seen enough of Bruce to proclaim that maybe his BAPIP is so bad because his approach is to terrible that he's ending up with more slow dribblers that are easy outs, etc, etc...
    I have followed enough game threads and read enough to know he has had more than his fair share of solid hits right at people, but who knows.

    That read that Schmidty623 linked seem to point to some of my fears.
    His lack of line drives is what is the problem.
    He's not hitting the ball solid.
    That isn't luck, that is not getting good solid powerful swings on the ball.

    I'm going to have to go read more, but I don't think we can keep claiming "unlucky" blindly without seeing if it's really something else.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by PhillipsHead View Post
    This is a tremendously flawed line of thinking. A pitcher starts the game with 8 straight balls...so that's an automatic take right? Wrong... While it is technically smart baseball to take a strike, it is not smart on the flip side to take the best possible pitch that you might see if it's a get-over fastball. If the pitcher decides 'I need to get one in there' and grooves a pitch right down the middle, is it a good take in any scenario? You ALWAYS go up to the plate ready to swing regardless of circumstances, and if the first pitch is a meatball after 8 straight balls, I have no problem with that. If you know for a fact that that was a horrible pitch he swung at, then I will condemn that. But if he hits a 3-run homer on that pitch, he's your hero. Get off his nuts...it happens to the best of them...
    Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by DTCromer View Post
    Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.
    Exactly. Al Pujols can mash in that situation. Not Jay Bruce. Not yet.

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    Re: ESPN: Bruce has had no luck

    Quote Originally Posted by DTCromer View Post
    Actually, I'm off his nuts and the pitch was up and out of the zone. Make the pitcher pitch. After 8 straight balls, you'd better be taking that pitch unless you're a damned good hitter and Jay has already proved he's not that great.
    A couple things about this.

    Many good coaches have sent a player up to the plate after two straight walks and told them to smack the ball. You do not know he did not step into the box with orders to knock the cover off the ball. I am guessing he was batting 3rd, which makes this possible.

    Another thing, Jay Bruce has already proved he is not that great? He is 22 years old. He has not proved a thing besides the fact that he might be a very good major league player when he reaches his prime.

    He does certainly need to work on his outlook at the plate, but your tone seems a little undeserved at this time.


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