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Thread: 22 or 27....

  1. #1
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    22 or 27....

    The words Prospect and Rookie have very specific meanings in the scouting community. Those meanings tend to slide by the wayside the further you get from the scouting community. If anybody knows of an online resource that states players ages at their rookie seasons, I really want to take a look at it.

    Ryan Hannigan, Chris Dickerson, Adam Rosales, and Jay Bruce. Which of these doesn't belong?

    Under Jim Bowden we saw a parade of young prospects, guys who were under 24 come up to the big team, enjoy limited success and then crash and burn. Most of these guys demonstrated a real lack of Baseball IQ. They threw behind the runner or to the wrong base. Footwork was atrocious. Pitchers usually didn't have more than two pitches. What you didn't see was a career AAAA player get a serious shot at playing time.

    The reds don't do that anymore. Slowly the organization has changed away from that model. In the above example, Hannigan, Dickerson and Rosales are 28, 27 and 26. Bruce is 22, but Bruce busted his way into the lineup. The other guys...Well, I was convinced that the reds had forgotten about Dickerson and Hannigan.

    Janish belongs here too. He was a college player that made it through a league a year and he's on the major league roster as a 26 year old.

    Guys like that aren't on this roster just because there is a hole and we need a warm body to fill it.

    What used to happen? Smitherman was 24. Hummell was 24. Olmedo was 22. Edwin was 22. Bergola was 22. Wagner was 20. The Lizard was 22. Wily Mo of course was 20.

    Buys these guys are the anti-wily-mo's. They are putting in so much time in the minors, that by the time they get here, they know how to play and they play hard.

    You don't see missed cutoff men or rainbows to the plate from the outfield. Tuesday night there was a rundown of a guy between first and second with a runner at third and two outs. The old reds would have found a way to let the run score and get neither runner. Two throws and it was all over with this crew.

    Keep them in the minor's as long as you possibly can. Don't put them on the 40 man roster till you have to and even if they are on the 40 man roster, that doesn't mean you have to put them in the majors.

    It's a very different way of doing things that pre-dates Jocketty. It's working.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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  3. #2
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    Re: 22 or 27....

    I'm not real sure what you're saying. I'd rather have Jay Bruce over all of the 27 year olds in the system.

    counting on 27 year old rookies, especially hitters, is a VERY bad model.

    you can get high value out of such players as role players in their pre-arbitration years. but don't go into a season with them as your A plan, and be ready to cut them, quickly.

    the players that drive a team to high success are the wunderkinds like Bruce and Cueto. Get more of them.

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    Re: 22 or 27....

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    I'm not real sure what you're saying. I'd rather have Jay Bruce over all of the 27 year olds in the system.

    the players that drive a team to high success are the wunderkinds like Bruce and Cueto. Get more of them.
    We're certainly in agreement about that. The difference between the way the reds are operating now and the way they used to operate was that instead of promoting geniune talents like Bruce at the age of 22, the reds used to bring up lesser lights like Smitherman at that age and then when they failed, they would get buried. These days somebody like Smitherman wouldn't sniff the 40 man roster till he was a more seasoned 25 or so.

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    counting on 27 year old rookies, especially hitters, is a VERY bad model.

    you can get high value out of such players as role players in their pre-arbitration years. but don't go into a season with them as your A plan, and be ready to cut them, quickly.
    I would counter that promoting 21 year olds too fast, didn't serve the franchise very well either. When the kids failed, the franchise then ended up scrambling for mid level major leage free agents to fill the roster out.

    Would you rather have Juan Castro on the roster or Paul Janish? As you note above, neither is going to drive a team to success, but they do have a useful role.

    I'm just noting that we have seen a real difference in the way the reds are using their minor league system. Just as that difference becomes apparent and real, we know have Walt as the GM.

    With the cards, instead of developing a deep well of broad based lesser lights, Walt tended to use his minor league system as playground for a couple of fast tracked prospects that as often as not he ended up dealing for top end major league talent. I don't know if we'll see that in the future, but right now he seems to be using Krivsky and O'Brien's drafts to fill out huge sections of the roster.

    The reds weren't counting on the 27 year old "rookies" to keep the team afloat, but with the injuiries, those guys are getting a ton of playing time and they are not imploding, instead they are keeping the team afloat.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: 22 or 27....

    In my opinion, the lesser prospects should be called up when needed, not when ready. Your needs must drive their promotions. If they fail when called upon, move on -- by definition, they are not so talented that they cannot be replaced. maybe they would have been more successful had you waited a bit, but so what. you can't let their needs drive your strategy.

    it's the opposite for the great talents. Them, you promote on their schedule.

    on this line of discussion, Maloney vs. Bailey is VERY interesting. Reds had the need for the much less talented Maloney recently (and maybe again this week), yet bypassed him once again even though the more talented Bailey has been highly inconsistent, again, and the Reds could really use a rotation lefty. personally, I think that you had to call up Maloney in that situation because it's his role in the organization-- to be on call when needed. Bailey's role is to pitch a heckuva lot better in the minors so that he deserves the roster spot that he has to occupy next season or else go through waivers.


    As for Jocketty's so-called patience, I just think that the drafting was so bad for many years that the only players that emerged weren't ready until they were 27 or so. The Reds got a number of such players. But don't keep that model-- get better younger players.

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    Re: 22 or 27....

    what I also suspect is that the developmental program is a LOT better since Bowden left. Development was a big joke for a long time (no freaking starting pitchers for 20 years) but now has fostered young talent again, even pitching. The 27 year olds that had no coaching for several years have benefited from new development program as much as the younger players have.

    as a testiment to better development, Reds have had very few out-and-out busts lately. the 18 month washout rate of top 10 picks was 70 percent under Bowden, and has fallen to less than 20 percent since. that's just huge.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...tink+princeton
    Last edited by princeton; 06-02-2009 at 12:32 PM.

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    Re: 22 or 27....

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    what I also suspect is that the developmental program is a LOT better since Bowden left.

    I think that's very true. I also believe that these "prospects" that came up under JimBo's reign came from other organizations: Pena, Lopez, etc. That's not to say that the Reds farm system did a great job with their own but it wasn't totally a problem with this organization.
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    Re: 22 or 27....

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    I would counter that promoting 21 year olds too fast, didn't serve the franchise very well either. When the kids failed, the franchise then ended up scrambling for mid level major leage free agents to fill the roster out.
    Homer is a clear example of that. For whatever reason, the Reds decided to call him up way too early. I don't know if the motivation was a desire for publicity or whatever, but clearly it did not serve the long term needs of this club.

    Bruce, I am not so sure about. The guy definitely has talent. It's hard to say that it was a wrong move to call him up, but was it an optimal move? He was a below average RF last year with the bat. This year he is struggling. No doubt that he is learning on the job. Is it smart to have him learning on the job during his pre-arb years? Could he have learned some of this in AAA?
    I don't know. Not being critical of the decision, just food for thought.

    In hindsight, so far it really seems like the right decision to let Cueto struggle last year and learn to pitch at the ML level. It's really paying dividends right now.






    Would you rather have Juan Castro on the roster or Paul Janish? As you note above, neither is going to drive a team to success, but they do have a useful role.

    I'm just noting that we have seen a real difference in the way the reds are using their minor league system. Just as that difference becomes apparent and real, we know have Walt as the GM.

    With the cards, instead of developing a deep well of broad based lesser lights, Walt tended to use his minor league system as playground for a couple of fast tracked prospects that as often as not he ended up dealing for top end major league talent. I don't know if we'll see that in the future, but right now he seems to be using Krivsky and O'Brien's drafts to fill out huge sections of the roster.

    The reds weren't counting on the 27 year old "rookies" to keep the team afloat, but with the injuiries, those guys are getting a ton of playing time and they are not imploding, instead they are keeping the team afloat.[/QUOTE]
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: 22 or 27....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Homer is a clear example of that. For whatever reason, the Reds decided to call him up way too early. I don't know if the motivation was a desire for publicity or whatever, but clearly it did not serve the long term needs of this club.
    I think publicity had something to do with it. I also think that whether the Reds brass thought he was ready or not, they were sick of the fans and media nagging them about bringing Homer up so they brought him up to shut them up.

    Bruce, I am not so sure about. The guy definitely has talent. It's hard to say that it was a wrong move to call him up, but was it an optimal move? He was a below average RF last year with the bat. This year he is struggling. No doubt that he is learning on the job. Is it smart to have him learning on the job during his pre-arb years? Could he have learned some of this in AAA?
    He didn't have anything to prove in AAA. Not that home runs are everything but he's already got a dozen bombs. That would come to about 36 for the season. His batting average would be a lot more palatable if he took some more walks but his defense is top notch. You can't learn to hit major league pitching in AAA.
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    Re: 22 or 27....

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Homer is a clear example of that. For whatever reason, the Reds decided to call him up way too early. I don't know if the motivation was a desire for publicity or whatever, but clearly it did not serve the long term needs of this club.

    Bruce, I am not so sure about. The guy definitely has talent. It's hard to say that it was a wrong move to call him up, but was it an optimal move? He was a below average RF last year with the bat. This year he is struggling. No doubt that he is learning on the job. Is it smart to have him learning on the job during his pre-arb years? Could he have learned some of this in AAA?
    I don't think so. I think the rest of the learning he has to do is at the ML level.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Re: 22 or 27....

    A system that produces some role players isn't a bad thing but the advantage is lost if you don't use that saved payroll on legit starters.


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