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Thread: Are we starting to see...

  1. #1
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Are we starting to see...

    a crop of young pitchers rising thru the system the way hitters have been for the last couple years?

    We have 5 LH and at least one one on each level with sub 3.00 Era's

    AAA Maloney 2.00

    AA Wood 1.38 -1 Hr allowed in 65 innings
    Smit 2.78 - 2-0 with a 3.00 Era as a starter with 15 innings 16 k's and only 6 BB

    A+ Horst 2.43

    A Fairel 2.40 with 59k's in 56 innings

    As far a RH's go...

    AAA Bailey - Still has the arm and potiential regardless of past failures

    AA Smith 2.84 ERA and does nothing but win and win at every level
    Stewart 1.52 ERA and a GO/FO of 2.62 in first year as a starter

    A+ Not much to be excited about

    A Sulburban 3.16 ERA despite allowing 8 HR in 37 innings - Reason? .032 batting average against with RISP... 10.1 innings 1 Hit 14 K's ... also 43 k's in 37 innings
    Ravin has seemed to turn a small corner with his control and still only 21 so he has time

    Partch has a fan in the FO so he has to count in someone's eyes...


    Not including injury guys like Thompson, Buck, Webb, Lotzkar. Then you have suspended guys like Carroll and Snowden. Add in a couple high round picks from last year like Cline, Shunick and Hildenbrandt... Plus a fresh arm at the top of the draft Like a Gibson or Crow we are starting to look stacked If only a quarter of these guys pan out...

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  3. #2
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    I agree with you, youre right, youre dead on point, but I still feel we need to go pitching, pitching, pitching early in the draft, I feel unless there is a knock down plus plus power hitter like Alonso, I want the Reds drafting hard throwing starting pitchers, my dream would be for the organization to have several Stewart type pitchers RH and LH starters who throw close to 100mph, then I will come off my stance.

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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    God points, but you could add some about AA pitching I was just floored with these stats. Talk about a starting rotation.

    Wood 4-3 1.38 ERA
    Avery 1-3 2.65 ERA With that ERA I don't see how you can lose
    Smith 4-0 2.84 ERA
    Smit 2-0 2.78 ERA
    Stewart 2-0 0.00 ERA

    Wood and Smit are also lefthanders.

    Forgot about Ondrusek. People made a big deal about Alonso's propmotion, but this guy is unbelievable. he also got promoted in late May and is 1-0 with a save at Carolina. 0.00 ERA

  5. #4
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    I agree with you, youre right, youre dead on point, but I still feel we need to go pitching, pitching, pitching early in the draft, I feel unless there is a knock down plus plus power hitter like Alonso, I want the Reds drafting hard throwing starting pitchers, my dream would be for the organization to have several Stewart type pitchers RH and LH starters who throw close to 100mph, then I will come off my stance.
    I almost agree but one quibble - I like hitters in the first couple rounds. Reason? Historic trends. Very few first round pitchers pan out compared to players drafted for their bat. Note I said bat not necessarily tools. Toolsy guys with labels like "some doubt his bat translates" usually are trouble or have long development curves. Draft the best available arm in rounds 3-4 on, especially college arms, load up on quality because in pitching development you need a bunch of quality to turn up a single solid pitcher. If your organization has only 2 or 3 top pitching prospects the odds are you'll never see a single major leaguer.

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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Terrific post. I think the critical mass of lefthanders is a major point.

    Couple small quibbles: I don't think Webb is hurt. He pitched 7.1 last Friday, which ought to mean that he goes tonight for Sarasota. He has pitched fairly well. Also, Hildenbrandt was a 2007 draft. He pitched very well for the GCL Reds last year, but we're still looking for him this year. Also wondering where we'll see Tyler Cline. And if we'll see Snowden and/or Carroll. I'm not counting on seeing Lotzkar this year.

    I hadn't realized that all five Carolina starters were going so well. Made me wonder if it's a pitchers' league this year. Sort of looks like it. Carolina has a 3.42 team ERA, second to Mobile at 3.28. Six of the 10 teams are under 4.00. Still, that's impressive depth for the Mudcats, who put up most of those numbers without Stewart.

  7. #6
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Mace,
    The Southern League is actually neutral. It doesn't favor hitters or pitchers on the whole.

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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Travis Wood's success excites me because this kid has struggled the last couple years after starting his career off so well. He has great stuff and as a lefty, has a great chance to make it to the big leagues, hopefully sooner rather than later.

    Also, does anyone have any news on Lotzkar. People projected him to be a breakout prospect, but you can't breakout unless you are healthy and playing...
    check out my new blog...www.theothergm.blogspot.com...let me know what you think

  9. #8
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Quote Originally Posted by pitcher7 View Post
    Travis Wood's success excites me because this kid has struggled the last couple years after starting his career off so well. He has great stuff and as a lefty, has a great chance to make it to the big leagues, hopefully sooner rather than later.

    Also, does anyone have any news on Lotzkar. People projected him to be a breakout prospect, but you can't breakout unless you are healthy and playing...
    Travis Wood excites me the most. I think he just has figured it out. His overall numbers in April were 0-3 with a 0.83 ERA and a .149 BA against with a 5.5 BB/9 with a 5.06 K/9... In May he went 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA with a .242 BA against and a 3.85 BB/9 and a 7.47 K/9... His first start in June was even better. What this tells me is that he's learning to pitch and trusting his stuff over the plate. If his change is anything like Doug and others say it is, he could be a 2010 Midseason canidate for the rotation. IMO he should get the call up to Louisville to replace Maloney and Horst should replace Wood and Fairel replace Horst. Keep them moving on up. Stockpile the hell out of them.

  10. #9
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    Terrific post. I think the critical mass of lefthanders is a major point.

    Couple small quibbles: I don't think Webb is hurt. He pitched 7.1 last Friday, which ought to mean that he goes tonight for Sarasota. He has pitched fairly well. Also, Hildenbrandt was a 2007 draft. He pitched very well for the GCL Reds last year, but we're still looking for him this year. Also wondering where we'll see Tyler Cline. And if we'll see Snowden and/or Carroll. I'm not counting on seeing Lotzkar this year.

    I hadn't realized that all five Carolina starters were going so well. Made me wonder if it's a pitchers' league this year. Sort of looks like it. Carolina has a 3.42 team ERA, second to Mobile at 3.28. Six of the 10 teams are under 4.00. Still, that's impressive depth for the Mudcats, who put up most of those numbers without Stewart.
    Your right about Webb. I ment to make it more guys with or coming off an injury. Any idea on the number of innings he is going to be limited to?
    Last edited by nemesis; 06-03-2009 at 12:40 PM.

  11. #10
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Quote Originally Posted by flash View Post
    God points, but you could add some about AA pitching I was just floored with these stats. Talk about a starting rotation.

    Wood 4-3 1.38 ERA
    Avery 1-3 2.65 ERA With that ERA I don't see how you can lose
    Smith 4-0 2.84 ERA
    Smit 2-0 2.78 ERA
    Stewart 2-0 0.00 ERA

    Wood and Smit are also lefthanders.

    Forgot about Ondrusek. People made a big deal about Alonso's propmotion, but this guy is unbelievable. he also got promoted in late May and is 1-0 with a save at Carolina. 0.00 ERA
    If you throw relief pitching into the mix the depth is even greater. IMO we should never be saddled again with contracts like Cormier, Stanton, Lincoln, Cordero. Guys like Herrera, Fisher, Roenicke, Viola, Massett, Bray, Burton (when on), Manuel should be given every chance in the world to earn jobs in the Bullpen before handing out big contracts. Between Cordero, Lincoln, Rhodes and Weathers how much of our budget is in our bullpen? I am all about going cheap in the bullpen and putting that money toward the core players Long Term Contracts.

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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    A pitcher who might, belatedly, be joining the mix is Jerry Gil, the converted infielder-outfielder. He didn't start pitching until last July, with the GCL Reds, and wasn't very good. He wasn't very good in April, either; and that's putting it gently. Or his first two starts in May. But his last three starts (at Sarasota):

    17.1 IP 11 H 2 ER. Unfortunately, there are 10 walks and only 9 K's . . . but the trend is extremely positive. He's 26, but his arm should be plenty fresh. And it's evidently quite an arm.

  13. #12
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    I'm not going to complain about Cordero, Weathers or Rhodes. As long as those three old men post era's under 3 or under 2 or even under 1 I don't see how you can.

  14. #13
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Jerry Gil once had Tommy John surgery, but I don't know if one would say that makes his arm more or less 'fresh'.

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    Re: Are we starting to see...

    Does anyone know the status of Cline and/or Shunick?


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