“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
"I know a lot about the law and various other lawyerings."
Hitters who avoid outs are the funnest.
Yup.
Maloney trusts his stuff. That's huge for a rookie starter.
Who knows if he'll get tagged because of it, but he's not going to get himself into trouble with walks.
He's actually just the type of guy FCB would love.
Thing is, it's his first and maybe only crack until september call ups so he could press.
His personality doesn't seem to indicate that, though. Something tells me he will be as cool as the other side of the pillow out there, but maybe that's just a personal bias. I've trained right next to him at my gym, and let me tell you folks, he's really someone to pull for.
As far as 3B is concerned, good ones are a tough get. I'd rather they lump it with EE and find a bat for the OF (really not sold on Nix/Gomes as the ultimate answer).
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
Beltre would be a great addition. Heck, offer EE for him straight up and see if Seattle bites.
Beltre's defense is substantially better than EE's, literally wins worth, even if it has slipped a little. As for the offensive comparison -- with full understanding that EE has not reached his peak and Beltre has... here's the last three years for them both, home and away. It's pretty interesting if you ask me. EE walks a lot more in GABP than he does on the road. Beltre is basically the same hitter in both places except for the fact that doubles die for him in Safeco. The away numbers are much more "fair", less influenced by park factor, than the home figures. EE comes out ahead slightly in the aggregate, but if you focus on the away figures, it's not even close.
Code:[/B]Player Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS[/B] Beltre Home 224 943 862 117 217 40 2 37 112 20 3 71 157 .252 .311 .432 .742 EE Home 205 812 700 114 196 44 1 32 120 5 4 86 129 .280 .373 .483 .856 Beltre Away 224 989 909 132 261 69 5 39 153 13 6 64 155 .287 .338 .502 .840 EE Away 197 789 714 87 188 43 2 25 96 10 0 55 137 .263 .329 .434 .763
Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-04-2009 at 07:29 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
If the Reds are looking for a thirdbaseman, then why the heck did they sign EE for two years?
"Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?" ~ Jim Bouton
For the numbers that Beltre puts up it would be insane for anyone to pay him $13.4M.
For that kind of money you should be getting a #1 starter or a premier SS.
Funny how many people watch numbers but ignore the number that is the price tag for that little trinket of pyrite.
Rem
Based on his combined offensive and defensive production and the price of that production on the free agent market, Fangraphs shows him worth $48.1M over the last 3 years -- that doesn't include his crazy walk year in LA. You can certainly make the argument that the Reds can't afford market prices if you want to, but Beltre is not overpaid.
I'll be the first to admit defensive stats have a ways to go, but we've seen over the last few years the value of defense -- just ask Philly, Tampa Bay, and the 2009 Reds.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Beltre's production as an M has been worth $60.3M to date based upon WAR. He's been paid, about $50M to this point (prorating his '09 thus far).
I reject the notion that paying a player less than his production is worth on the open market qualifies as a bad contract when that player has had above average value (he's averaged 3.5 WAR a season as a Mariner).
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I don't disagree that Beltre's been a good value, but unless the Reds can get him for a lot less than what he's currently making, I don't believe acquiring a 30 year old player for multiple seasons is a good plan of attack for this franchise.
As I said, I wouldn't be opposed to getting him for this season, but I sincerely doubt the Reds are going to be contending much longer, making the expenditure generally a big waste, both in money and prospects.
Last edited by Falls City Beer; 06-04-2009 at 08:14 PM.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
Your argument would make perfect sense if it were not predicated on the flawed view of Beltre's production as an M. As it is, your argument has to ignore both defensive metrics and the eyes of coaches and scouts regarding his defensive ability and it ignores randomness and environment relative to his offensive ability.
I'm sorry, but I disagree with your position completely and it's because of the numbers and the price tag associated with them.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |