Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

[princeton]

then let's shift some of the minor league third basemen to left field.

[flyer85]

ought to be looking for a SS

[Falls City Beer]

ought to be looking for a SS

And another young starter, preferably with a history of exceptional control.

[Mario-Rijo]

Is Atkins that much different from EE?

Neither is a gold glover if that's what you mean both are probably better suited to be 1st baggers or LF's perhaps down the road. Both have good sticks though and currently Atkins is only more unlucky in all of MLB than Jay Bruce.

Bruce has a .206 BABIP and Atkins a .201 BABIP. I think both of them are pressing trying to make up for Votto and Holliday respectively. Put 'em both together behind BP, Nix and Hernandez for a week or 2 and see what happens.

[flyer85]

And another young starter, preferably with a history of exceptional control.

ought to be looking to deal harang/Arroyo to fill their needs. However, I highly doubt those kind of deals are even a consideration

A few years back the Phils made a series of July deals unloading vets and they got better, smart trading to do that for the Reds

[jojo]

Beltre would be a good addition.

[Jpup]

I'm all for improving the club, but Edwin could be just what the Reds need when he gets back. I would love for the Reds to go out and get another starter. Put Dickerson in centerfield on most days, Votto comes back along with Edwin, the Reds get a bonafide starter and I could see them winning the division. That is a lot to wish for, but I think that's the only way they can make the playoffs. I'm satisfied with Nix in left for the time being.

[remdog]

Beltre would be a good addition.

Adrian Beltre is a 30 year old, somewhat competent 3rd baseman that parlayed one exceptional year with the Dodgers into a big contract. It's basically taken him two years to reproduce the one good year that he had in '04 with the Dodgers. He's 30 years old and he's making $13.4M this year. His defense has declined and his current numbers are .244/.275/.355/.630.

Still think he would be a good addition?

Rem

[osuceltic]

DeRosa is the obvious guy. He'd be a great addtion. Solid defender, professional hitter, hits lefties well, doesn't get embarrassed by righties, wouldn't cost much to acquire (Josh Roenicke?).

Then you see what the market is for some selection/combination of Encarnacion, Homer, Maloney, Alonso, etc., to fill other needs (LF/SS/SP).

[Falls City Beer]

Adrian Beltre is a 30 year old, somewhat competent 3rd baseman that parlayed one exceptional year with the Dodgers into a big contract. It's basically taken him two years to reproduce the one good year that he had in '04 with the Dodgers. He's 30 years old and he's making $13.4M this year. His defense has declined and his current numbers are .244/.275/.355/.630.

Still think he would be a good addition?

Rem

I agree. He's on the wrong side of thirty and still expensive. I'd take him as a rental for this year, but he isn't the long-term answer.

[Falls City Beer]

ought to be looking to deal harang/Arroyo to fill their needs. However, I highly doubt those kind of deals are even a consideration

A few years back the Phils made a series of July deals unloading vets and they got better, smart trading to do that for the Reds

I agree. I think Walt would love to hand off Arroyo's albatross contract, but I think there'd be some real ground to be made up with a trade of Harang to a contender. Maybe to Cleveland, even.

[jojo]

Adrian Beltre is a 30 year old, somewhat competent 3rd baseman that parlayed one exceptional year with the Dodgers into a big contract. It's basically taken him two years to reproduce the one good year that he had in '04 with the Dodgers. He's 30 years old and he's making $13.4M this year. His defense has declined and his current numbers are .244/.275/.355/.630.

Still think he would be a good addition?

Rem

He'd be an excellent addition.

Not only isn't his defense in decline, he's having another exceptional year with the leather and he remains one of the best defensive third baseman in the majors (based upon the eyes and defensive metrics-it's a perfect marriage concerning Beltre).

Concerning his numbers this season, I'm more interested in his true skill level. Unless there is a reason to think his true skill level has dramatically nose-dived (which there is not) making his early season an accurate depiction, big deal-he's started slow. It's his true skill level that informs his usefulness going forward and his offensive production has been suppressed by the Puget Sound:

Beltre is at least a 20 run upgrade over EE defensively. In GABP without the righty-suppressing presence of Safeco, I could see Beltre easily being 3 wins better than EE at third.

Beltre's Road splits:
'06 road: .283/.343/.462 OPS: .805 (.027 >than home)
'07 road: .288/.320/.538 OPS: .858 (.113 >than home)
'08 road: .292/.349/.512 OPS: .862 (.159 > than home)

On the other hand, EE, has been .081 worth of OPS better in GABP than on the road. Basically he's been something akin a middling offensive third baseman outside of GABP. Beltre should also be expected to benefit by hitting in GABP-and he can hit on the road too.

Beltre has been far from a bust for the Ms. He's played gold glove defense while playing in probably the worst possible environment for a hitter like him.

He's never going to be an on base monster. However, he is a much better offensive player than many give him credit for being.... He's a legit above average player.

Here are a few posts that have answered the question directly:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...3&postcount=32

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...0&postcount=45

Here's a summary of Beltre's Home/Road splits over the last three years:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	ISO 	k%	BB%	XBH%	wOBA
Home	0.252	0.311	0.432	0.743	0.269	0.180	16.6	7.5	36.4	0.314
Away	0.287	0.338	0.503	0.840	0.310	0.216	15.7	6.5	43.3	0.348

Beltre isn't grossly overpaid nor is his contract a bad one.

[TheNext44]

Seattle Times reported on May 10th:

Hitting coach Alan Cockrell noticed a flaw in Beltre's swing and suggested a change. Beltre agreed with the logic and said it worked for him. Apparently so; he had three hits Saturday, including an RBI double and his first home run of the season.

Since then he has posted a .770 OPS. Not great, but most of those games were in Seattle.

If he can OPS .750 and provide the defense he has so far, he would be a solid improvement over EE. I have a feeling in GAPB, he would OPS over .800.

One caveat, his OBP is really low this year, he simply is not taking walks. Not sure why.

If he can be had cheap, a couple of top 20 prospects, which is likely, he's be a great addition.

I still like DeRosa better, but he would cost more in terms of prospects. Everyone seems to want him these days.

[SMcGavin]

And another young starter, preferably with a history of exceptional control.

You have said quite frequently that you want pitchers with great control and don't care about strikeouts that much. Well, the guy supposedly coming up to pitch on Saturday has a 1.2 BB/9 this season. That pretty much defines exceptional control. So why would the Reds go outside of the organization for that? Unless you are talking about someone with really good stuff and exceptional control... but I don't think Zach Greinke is available.

This report surprises me, I'll believe the Reds are looking for a 3B when I see it. Edwin just got a two year deal in the offseason, I would be pretty suprised if he gets replaced.

[remdog]

He'd be an excellent addition.

Not only isn't his defense in decline, he's having another exceptional year with the leather and he remains one of the best defensive third baseman in the majors (based upon the eyes and defensive metrics-it's a perfect marriage concerning Beltre).

I see a lot of the West Coast teams, what with the Angels being in that time-zone and that division. I suggest that you check your health care plan and see if optometry is covered by it.

And while you're at it check where the decimal point is in the salary: it's $13.4M not $1.34M. At his price he's not a good addition by any stretch of the imagination.

Rem