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Thread: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

  1. #46
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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

    As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

    It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

    The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

    JMO, of course.

    Rem

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  3. #47
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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    We are not wanting to give up alot to obtain a guy when we have EE signed to a 2 year contract with virtually nothing ready in the minors. IMHO we are looking at these 3 guys at 3rd base if we are looking at all:

    1)Mark DeRosa- RH bat plays 3rd/1st/OF would be a solid bat and super sub but would probably cost Roenicke and Ramirez.

    2)Garrett Atkins-RH bat having terrible year in COL, is close to being demoted to AAA, had decent seasons before 2009, he would cost Roenicke and Maloney.

    3)Melvin Mora-RH bat is 36yrs old with an 8million contract, still has solid offensive #'s but not much pop, could be a nice insurance guy to have for this year at 3rd, but I would only trade if we send Ramirez and Lincoln to them, Lincoln's departure helps offset the money a little.

    this is my order of attack...leaving guys like Bailey, Stubbs,Frazier alone for bigger fish say Matt Holiday or Roy Oswalt!!!!

  4. #48
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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm sorry, but I disagree with your position completely and it's because of the numbers and the price tag associated with them.
    So, are you saying that you'd like to pay $13.4M for a third baseman? Especially since you can get identical or even better production from the guy you've got for $2.425M? And you don't have to get older, you don't have to trade some bodies to get the high priced spread and you still keep that trading chip in case you need it later? That seems to be your stance.

    If that's the way you see it well, just to be honest here, I'm not sorry to say that you're, well, as they say, full of hot air. Basically, your compass is out of calibration.

    Rem

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

    As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

    It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

    The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

    JMO, of course.

    Rem
    The argument is that Beltre in GABP is a superior player to EE in GABP.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Beltre is at least a 20 run upgrade over EE defensively. In GABP without the righty-suppressing presence of Safeco, I could see Beltre easily being 3 wins better than EE at third.

    Beltre's Road splits:
    '06 road: .283/.343/.462 OPS: .805 (.027 >than home)
    '07 road: .288/.320/.538 OPS: .858 (.113 >than home)
    '08 road: .292/.349/.512 OPS: .862 (.159 > than home)

    On the other hand, EE, has been .081 worth of OPS better in GABP than on the road. Basically he's been something akin a middling offensive third baseman outside of GABP. Beltre should also be expected to benefit by hitting in GABP-and he can hit on the road too.

    Beltre has been far from a bust for the Ms. He's played gold glove defense while playing in probably the worst possible environment for a hitter like him.

    He's never going to be an on base monster. However, he is a much better offensive player than many give him credit for being.... He's a legit above average player.
    If EE started as an M, he'd likely have been severely emasculated given the vast majority of his homers are pulled.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    So, are you saying that you'd like to pay $13.4M for a third baseman? Especially since you can get identical or even better production from the guy you've got for $2.425M? And you don't have to get older, you don't have to trade some bodies to get the high priced spread and you still keep that trading chip in case you need it later? That seems to be your stance.

    If that's the way you see it well, just to be honest here, I'm not sorry to say that you're, well, as they say, full of hot air. Basically, your compass is out of calibration.

    Rem
    I'd be fine with paying a third baseman $13.4 million for 3.5 WAR a year.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    If Frazier has a solid second half this year I see him as getting a chance to either make EE expendable or, at least, make the team as a backup and moving to 3rd if EE falters or is traded.

    JMO, of course.

    Rem

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'd be fine with paying a third baseman $13.4 million for 3.5 WAR a year.

    Take your GPS into the dealer. It's broken.

    Rem

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Take your GPS into the dealer. It's broken.

    Rem
    I've articulated the case for why it's calibrated the way it is and I'll just say I'm very happy with it's accuracy and perhaps it's best if we go our separate directions on this issue at this point.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I've articulated the case for why it's calibrated the way it is and I'll just say I'm very happy with it's accuracy and perhaps it's best if we go our separate directions on this issue at this point.
    And, I'll be very happy to accknowledge that I'm sure that my case is well laid out and accurate as well.

    However, I'd be very happy to buy you a beer and discuss it again if we are ever in the same city at the same time. A tip of the cap and a good night to you Sir.

    Rem

  11. #55
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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    So if the Indians want major league pitching...what about DeRosa for Maloney?

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    So if the Indians want major league pitching...what about DeRosa for Maloney?
    We could sell them on the fact he went to Huron High School!
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    The enthusiasm for DeRosa baffles me. His current OPS is .765, Hairston's is .780. No way I'd trade Matt Maloney for DeRosa. If he can somehow take over a spot in the rotation, he may free the FO up to trade one other of the pitchers later, bringing more and freeing up considerable salary. IMO, that's very important to keep in mind when thinking about moving Maloney.

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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Maloney will get his shot, apparently. Let's hope his stuff is somewhere between Greinke's and someone's who is really awful.
    I don't think there's much doubt about that. It's possible Maloney will suck, but he's exactly the type of guy you have been asking for.

  15. #59
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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

    As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

    It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

    The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

    JMO, of course.

    Rem


    Very well said and IMHO the Gods Honest Truth.


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    Re: Per Buster Olney: Reds looking for a 3rd baseman

    Quote Originally Posted by remdog View Post
    Except for one year in LA (2004 where the numbers were off the board and suggest that Adrian was doing something other than just lifting weights), Beltre has managed to OPS in the .800's just twice. Hmmm, same as EE has but in less than half the time. AB's career OPS: .780. EE's career OPS: .789.

    As far as defense goes, I appreciate that you acknowledge that defensive numbers are, ummm, let's say unrefined as yet. But defense at 3rd base is different from most positions. 'D' at third is not about range; 'D' at third is about reflexes, hands and feet. Very seldom does a 3rd baseman make a critical play to his left that includes range. If the ball gets through to the 3rd baseman's left it's going to be a single and, unless it drives in a run, it's 'managable'. The significant play for a 3rd baseman is to his right and that's usually a reflex and timing type of thing. If that ball gets by then the pitcher is looking at someone in scoring position usually.

    It's my opinion that EE has the reflexes and hands to play third. It's where his feet come into play that is his problem and, if you'll notice, it's usually on plays where he has plenty of time.

    The difference between the two is not worth paying $13.4M to one player when you can get almost identical production out of the other for $2.425M.

    JMO, of course.

    Rem
    You make a great point at the end, fair enough the money is a big deal. But IMO only to Castellini, I could care less how much he spends for the rest of this season unless it prohibits us elsewhere. That is where Bob has to make the decision to up the ante.

    However where I disagree with you is in the production part of it. Beltre is a far better (far better) player away from his home parks of LA and Seattle. Almost 40 points better in Avg., 30 Pts. Better in OBP% and nearly 80 points better in slugging % and over a 100 points better in overall OPS. He's an .831 OPS bat away from those 2 parks alone, if we sat down and took away the other mammoth parks he's played alot in like Oakland, and the NL west we'd probably see an even better offensive player. Now take that info and stick him in one of the smaller parks and divisions in baseball and I think we might be talking about a guy who can get back close to those LA #'s he had. I think he's probably close to a .900 OPS bat as a Red. Now you might have me on the defensive portion of the production but he can't be any worse overall than EE and Edwin isn't close to that kind of bat. He may get there eventually but that's a big if IMO. And right now Beltre profiles to be the better bat both inside and outside of GABP than Edwin.

    IMO Edwin isn't a future piece to the puzzle anymore, I've seen enough of him. Beltre is a guy who can help us now and a guy that we can actually offer arbitration to and feel pretty safe that he won't accept, 3rd baggers with his skills get contracts. And if he doesn't we can feel good giving Frazier another season of seasoning in '10 and then not re-offer abrtiration again in '11 if we see fit. I really don't see any downside to offering Edwin for Adrian Beltre, none. In fact I'd look for a way to send EE to Seattle for him and get Seattle to pay some of Beltre's salary but fall short of sending any critical prospects to boot.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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