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Thread: Alex Rios?

  1. #46
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    I've never cared much for Rios' game and never understood why folks here were always clamoring for him. He's just not that good.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

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  3. #47
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What's more informative, his first 1000 PAs as a major leaguer in his early 20's where he struggled to OPS .700 or his last 2200 PAs where he has OPS'd significantly higher than .800?

    His true offensive skill looks to be that of roughly a .360 wOBA hitter. League average is around .330. That makes him 15 runs better than average over 600 PAs. If he plays centerfield, he gets another 2.5 for position and another +5 for his defense (he looks to be a slightly plus defender in center) and another 20 runs for the difference between average and replacement over 600 PAs.

    That adds up to him roughly being a 4 win player (over replacement). While that's not elite, it's significantly above average.
    But he would be getting elite money in the Reds budget. No thanks, but the probability of the Reds dealing into such a situation is probably about the same as me winning the lottery.

  4. #48
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    I'd do Bailey, Taveras and Heisey for Rios and $15MM.

    Call up Stubbs and have a long-term OF of Rios, Stubbs/Dickerson, Bruce. Gomes and Nix become your RH and LH pinch-hitting options, respectively (along with Owings of course.) The money is still not great but you save some in shedding Taveras and picking up $15MM. If Votto returns to form, you can package Alonso for pitching. If he doesn't, well you still have Alonso.

    The Jays get a pitching prospect with a fresh start, and Taveras replaces Rios in the everyday lineup. Meanwhile, you can sell high on Heisey, who becomes extraneous in Cincy in the current situation.
    Go BLUE!!!

  5. #49
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    I adore Rios' game. .290+ hitter, 40+ doubles, 20+ HR (particularly if you stuck him in the GAB), 20+ SB, GG-level defender in RF.

    But don't worry, the Reds will never bid on him. The Giants ought to gnaw off a limb to get him. But if he goes on the market, I figure the Mets and Braves are the leading suitors.
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  6. #50
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I adore Rios' game. .290+ hitter, 40+ doubles, 20+ HR (particularly if you stuck him in the GAB), 20+ SB, GG-level defender in RF.

    But don't worry, the Reds will never bid on him. The Giants ought to gnaw off a limb to get him. But if he goes on the market, I figure the Mets and Braves are the leading suitors.
    Wow, you really like a guy that I cannot stand. Amazing how two baseball fans can have such different opinions of the same player. I see one of the most-overpaid players in MLB when you factor in the rest of his contract.

    PuffyPig makes a great point earlier in the thread. The Reds wouldn't want Rios at his current contract even if they didn't have to trade anything to get him. So, there is certainly no way they would trade anything for him, unless the Jays wanted to pick up about half of his ridiculous contract (which they would never do IMO).

  7. #51
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I adore Rios' game. .290+ hitter, 40+ doubles, 20+ HR (particularly if you stuck him in the GAB), 20+ SB, GG-level defender in RF.

    But don't worry, the Reds will never bid on him. The Giants ought to gnaw off a limb to get him. But if he goes on the market, I figure the Mets and Braves are the leading suitors.
    I can't imagine the Jays would want Failcouer. He'd have to no longer be a Brave if Rios became a Brave, right?

    If somehow Hell froze over and the Reds landed Rios, does that mean Rios plays RF and Bruce shifts to LF?

    In which case, what happens to Gomes and Nix?

    And, do we then rely on a CF platoon of Stubbs and Dickerson?

  8. #52
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    I think Rios is a pretty similar overall player to Brandon Phillips, just plays a different position, and in CF, plays a similar skill position well.

    A good player, entering his prime years that has a chance to become significantly good (like Phillips this year?)

    He's more than worth his contract IMO, but considering the Reds' current payroll constraints, it'd be hard to stomach moving top prospects for him that potentially offer very valuable cheap production. I don't think he's the right particular fit for the Reds, since we're looking pretty set in CF and RF for the next while.

  9. #53
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Wow, you really like a guy that I cannot stand. Amazing how two baseball fans can have such different opinions of the same player. I see one of the most-overpaid players in MLB when you factor in the rest of his contract.

    PuffyPig makes a great point earlier in the thread. The Reds wouldn't want Rios at his current contract even if they didn't have to trade anything to get him. So, there is certainly no way they would trade anything for him, unless the Jays wanted to pick up about half of his ridiculous contract (which they would never do IMO).
    I love his contract. It really depends on whether you think he's going to be a good player in his late 20s and early 30s. I do, so I look at it as a quality hitter you can build around locked in for what's going to look like chump change in 2014. He had a poor April, but you can't touch a five-tool, bat-on-ball RH OF stud like Rios when he's on his game.

    I suspect the Jays don't really want any part of trading their best player in the OF. Vernon Wells is the albatross contract hanging around that club's neck. Maybe they'll have to part company with Rios because he's the guy they can trade and because of the PR mumbo jumbo mentioned at the start of the thread. All I know is that Rios is the kind of do-it-all player I'd want to spend my money on if I were running the circus. Seriously, .300/.350/.500 with speed and defense for the next six or seven seasons? Sign me up.

    That's what the Reds want Jay Bruce to become. Why not get a RH bookend?

    I disagree the Reds wouldn't want Rios on the team because I figure Rios is exactly the kind of player Walt Jocketty covets, a Jim Edmondsesque kind of pickup. Yet I doubt he's got the leash to make it happen, so all he can do as the Reds GM is die a little more on the inside when he hears that a guy like Rios might be had.

    If he goes somewhere, it won't be to Cincinnati. FCB's double helix theory applies to this one.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  10. #54
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I can't imagine the Jays would want Failcouer. He'd have to no longer be a Brave if Rios became a Brave, right?

    If somehow Hell froze over and the Reds landed Rios, does that mean Rios plays RF and Bruce shifts to LF?

    In which case, what happens to Gomes and Nix?

    And, do we then rely on a CF platoon of Stubbs and Dickerson?
    I don't think the Braves would pass on making a deal for a good OF in deference to Jeff Francouer.

    Rios in RF and Bruce in LF, sounds pretty badass.

    Gomes and Nix? What's wrong with having depth on the bench?

    Dickerson's catching everything in sight and getting on base. You could do worse than him in CF.

    But I agree we're in Hell frozen over territory talking about the Reds making a deal like this.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #55
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    You go get him period? Not even close. The guy is grossly overpaid, he's average-at-best at the plate, he'll steal less and less bases as he gets older (including this year so far), he's not good defensively and he's a jerk off the field. Other than that, I love him.

    I wouldn't trade Yonder Alonso for that clown in a million years even if he didn't have that ridiculous contract. That is nonsense.

    Sorry Blue Jays, you are stuck with Rios and his awful contract that will strap you for years.
    Is that how you felt before you drafted him for your fantasy team, or are you letting emotions get in the way of rational thinking?

    Personally, I don't think that a couple of bad months and a YouTube video can undermine Rios' value.
    Last edited by Johnny Footstool; 06-09-2009 at 01:12 AM.
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  12. #56
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    But he would be getting elite money in the Reds budget. No thanks, but the probability of the Reds dealing into such a situation is probably about the same as me winning the lottery.
    (IMHO) The Reds are only going to spend so much money. If that happens to be 70- 80 million a year they'd rather divvy it up between nonproductive players than to pay a productive player or two the going rate.

  13. #57
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't think the Braves would pass on making a deal for a good OF in deference to Jeff Francouer.

    Rios in RF and Bruce in LF, sounds pretty badass.

    Gomes and Nix? What's wrong with having depth on the bench?

    Dickerson's catching everything in sight and getting on base. You could do worse than him in CF.

    But I agree we're in Hell frozen over territory talking about the Reds making a deal like this.
    I guess my original question was more would the Jays want Francouer, and if they don't, what does Atlanta do with Francouer? Do they slide him over to LF, use Diaz as the 4th OF and keep Larry Jones @ 3B?

    Believe me, I'd love to have Bruce in LF and Rios in RF and then figure out CF down the road, as you're right that Dickerson is showing he can definitely handle the position defensively and has hit enough to keep him in the lineup.

    So, if somehow Walt has enough leash to get Rios (if he's really available), that means we carry 6 OF (Bruce/Gomes/Nix, Dickerson/Taveras, Rios), with Gomes being Votto's backup, or could we platoon Nix and Gomes @ 1B? IIRC, Nix has never played 1B. I agree it would definitely strengthen our bench.

    But yeah, definitely in Hell frozen over territory. The Nationals would lead their division before the Reds would try to make a deal like this.

  14. #58
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I guess my original question was more would the Jays want Francouer, and if they don't, what does Atlanta do with Francouer? Do they slide him over to LF, use Diaz as the 4th OF and keep Larry Jones @ 3B?

    Believe me, I'd love to have Bruce in LF and Rios in RF and then figure out CF down the road, as you're right that Dickerson is showing he can definitely handle the position defensively and has hit enough to keep him in the lineup.

    So, if somehow Walt has enough leash to get Rios (if he's really available), that means we carry 6 OF (Bruce/Gomes/Nix, Dickerson/Taveras, Rios), with Gomes being Votto's backup, or could we platoon Nix and Gomes @ 1B? IIRC, Nix has never played 1B. I agree it would definitely strengthen our bench.
    That's why you include Taveras in the deal- both to help plug a hole at the top of the Jays lineup and their outfield, as well as to save SOME money in the deal. Taveras, Bailey, and Heisey for Rios. If it helped get some money back in the deal, I'd include another prospect as well- maybe a guy like Sutton, Francisco or Lotzkar (as a PTBNL if they wanted a Canadian in the deal.)
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #59
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What's more informative, his first 1000 PAs as a major leaguer in his early 20's where he struggled to OPS .700 or his last 2200 PAs where he has OPS'd significantly higher than .800?

    His true offensive skill looks to be that of roughly a .360 wOBA hitter. League average is around .330. That makes him 15 runs better than average over 600 PAs.
    In his first two years, his OPS is about .710, his next two about .850, and his last two, about .775.

    He doesn't look to be a .360 OBA guy, considering his career high is .354, his career average is .337 and his average over the last two years is about .330. That suggests he's getting on base around an average player in the majors, but less than average for an OF.

    As I said, I wouldn't pick him up if he was on waivers. Too much money for essentially average offensive production. Even in his career year, he posted a .852 OPS in 2007. And he's been downhill ever since. If we pay that kind of money for average production, we'll have to get rid of likley more productive salary to pay for him. Becuase you can't get rid on unproductive salary.

  16. #60
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    In his first two years, his OPS is about .710, his next two about .850, and his last two, about .775.

    He doesn't look to be a .360 OBA guy, considering his career high is .354, his career average is .337 and his average over the last two years is about .330. That suggests he's getting on base around an average player in the majors, but less than average for an OF.

    As I said, I wouldn't pick him up if he was on waivers. Too much money for essentially average offensive production. Even in his career year, he posted a .852 OPS in 2007. And he's been downhill ever since. If we pay that kind of money for average production, we'll have to get rid of likley more productive salary to pay for him. Becuase you can't get rid on unproductive salary.
    Puffy and I are of the exact same opinion. I just don't see the high end player that M2 does, and I have high doubts about him improving his game going forward. Obviously a player who splits opinions pretty sharply, but one thing most of us are in agreement about is that given his contract there is no way the Reds would deal for him.


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