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Thread: Alex Rios?

  1. #61
    Member GADawg's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    just curious has Rios had similar problems in the past or is the first time he's gone all Milton Bradley? If it's his first time I'd be willing to give him a chance. If he doesn't have a pattern of this behavior then maybe someone just pushed the wrong button....can happen to any of us though I realize it doesn't excuse him in that situation.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    That's why you include Taveras in the deal- both to help plug a hole at the top of the Jays lineup and their outfield, as well as to save SOME money in the deal. Taveras, Bailey, and Heisey for Rios. If it helped get some money back in the deal, I'd include another prospect as well- maybe a guy like Sutton, Francisco or Lotzkar (as a PTBNL if they wanted a Canadian in the deal.)
    I'd include Taveras in any deal right now just as long as the result is more PAs for Dickerson.

  4. #63
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I can't imagine the Jays would want Failcouer. He'd have to no longer be a Brave if Rios became a Brave, right?
    The Red Sox were supposedly scouting him, and, no surprise, apparently were not impressed. But that's probably a pretty good sign that the Braves are at least making an attempt to unload him.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  5. #64
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I'd do Bailey, Taveras and Heisey for Rios and $15MM.
    The key for in a deal for a team like the Reds is the value of prospects traded and the cash involved in the deal. If the Reds like Rios but think is contract is too expensive a cash offering may get the contract back into the area in which the Reds deem reasonable.

    Many players are deemed malcontents when they are unhappy in a situation. It is rather easy to turn a town or organization against a particular player. All it takes is one hometown reporter to sour on a player and it could be bad news for the particular player. I don't have much of a problem with the video of Rios posted on youtube. He is a human being and many of us after a bad day at work want to forget about the day. Rios is attending a charity event and some stupid fan is heckling him about his bad day. He probably shouldn't have said anything as severe as he said, but that is past now.

    I would be willing to entertain the idea of trading for Rios, as long as some money was kicked into the deal. I don't know if Tronto would take Taveras and his contract would probably take away from more money the Reds could receive in return. A Bailey, Heisey, and Ronekie may be enough to get Rios + cash. I am against trading young, live arms but Bailey may need a change, Heisey looks blocked by Stubbs, and Roenkie may or may not fit in to the organization's plans.

  6. #65
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    In his first two years, his OPS is about .710, his next two about .850, and his last two, about .775.

    He doesn't look to be a .360 OBA guy, considering his career high is .354, his career average is .337 and his average over the last two years is about .330. That suggests he's getting on base around an average player in the majors, but less than average for an OF.

    As I said, I wouldn't pick him up if he was on waivers. Too much money for essentially average offensive production. Even in his career year, he posted a .852 OPS in 2007. And he's been downhill ever since. If we pay that kind of money for average production, we'll have to get rid of likley more productive salary to pay for him. Becuase you can't get rid on unproductive salary.
    Just to add to this, his minor league numbers don't do a whole lot for me either. He had one "significantly above average" season in AA. Other than that, this guy looks awful pedestrian (from an offensive standpoint).
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  7. #66
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    In his first two years, his OPS is about .710, his next two about .850, and his last two, about .775.

    He doesn't look to be a .360 OBA guy, considering his career high is .354, his career average is .337 and his average over the last two years is about .330. That suggests he's getting on base around an average player in the majors, but less than average for an OF.

    As I said, I wouldn't pick him up if he was on waivers. Too much money for essentially average offensive production. Even in his career year, he posted a .852 OPS in 2007. And he's been downhill ever since. If we pay that kind of money for average production, we'll have to get rid of likley more productive salary to pay for him. Becuase you can't get rid on unproductive salary.
    This sums it up right here. Like I said, Toronto could send $30M with the guy and I probably wouldn't take it. So there is no way I would trade any prospects for the guy.

  8. #67
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    This sums it up right here. Like I said, Toronto could send $30M with the guy and I probably wouldn't take it. So there is no way I would trade any prospects for the guy.
    I wouldn't go that far. Even though I'm not a big Rios fan, there are deals that could be made. I'm just not into the "let the other team back up the truck" method of trade negotiating that often takes place here on RedsZone. We have more than one hole on this team, and the money and prospects expended on Rios is ammo that can't be fired at other areas.
    Not all who wander are lost

  9. #68
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    In his first two years, his OPS is about .710, his next two about .850, and his last two, about .775.
    In his last two seasons he's OPS'd .852 and .798 how does that average out to .775? He started horribly this season, but since the end of April he's OPS'd .830+. So he had a a little bit of a down year last season, but it looks like he'll be back up over .800 this year.

    He doesn't look to be a .360 OBA guy, considering his career high is .354, his career average is .337 and his average over the last two years is about .330. That suggests he's getting on base around an average player in the majors, but less than average for an OF.

    As I said, I wouldn't pick him up if he was on waivers. Too much money for essentially average offensive production. Even in his career year, he posted a .852 OPS in 2007. And he's been downhill ever since. If we pay that kind of money for average production, we'll have to get rid of likley more productive salary to pay for him. Becuase you can't get rid on unproductive salary.
    Well he did say wOBA in which his career high was .368 followed by .365. I like Rios a lot better than most of the other bats that have been discussed. I'd say against righties we could play an outfield of Rios in LF, Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF. Against Lefties put Gomes in LF, Rios in CF and Bruce in RF.

  10. #69
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Just a couple of additions on Rios. Dewan rates him the 3rd-best overall RF from 2006-2008 at a +43. He's been double digit positives in each of those three seasons, which is notable consistency. His +43 is even better than Carl Crawford's +33 in LF (and Crawford is measured against some of the most dire fielders in the game).

    Rios has also averaged 21 Win Shares the past three seasons (and, again, he's been quite consistent). That translates to 7 wins in WS math and, generally speaking, anyone who can consistently deliver 20+ WS is a very good player (Curtis Granderson is a similar player). Someone who can deliver 25+ on a consistent basis is a superstar.

    If he remains essentially what he was from 2006-8, he'll be a bargain on his future paychecks. Obviously that goes out the window if you think he's sliding, but I suspect if he were a Reds player from the system in similar circumstances, most here would be thrilled to see him locked up into the middle of the next decade for a $10M average.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #70
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Just a couple of additions on Rios. Dewan rates him the 3rd-best overall RF from 2006-2008 at a +43. He's been double digit positives in each of those three seasons, which is notable consistency. His +43 is even better than Carl Crawford's +33 in LF (and Crawford is measured against some of the most dire fielders in the game).

    Rios has also averaged 21 Win Shares the past three seasons (and, again, he's been quite consistent). That translates to 7 wins in WS math and, generally speaking, anyone who can consistently deliver 20+ WS is a very good player (Curtis Granderson is a similar player). Someone who can deliver 25+ on a consistent basis is a superstar.

    If he remains essentially what he was from 2006-8, he'll be a bargain on his future paychecks. Obviously that goes out the window if you think he's sliding, but I suspect if he were a Reds player from the system in similar circumstances, most here would be thrilled to see him locked up into the middle of the next decade for a $10M average.
    This is absolutely correct concerning the money. The market would have to dramatically correct in an unlikely magnitude for the salary to be an albatross assuming he doesn't get injured/decline unpredictably.

    He's just the kind of player that one would hope the Reds were trying to target. It's possible that the Reds think they've got a 3 win player in Stubbs next season and maybe they have to decide whether left field or shortstop (or catcher) is a bigger priority given resources.

    Left field could probably be solved without a sledgehammer move like adding Rios allowing the Reds to swing resources toward a more premium positional need. I could buy such an argument. But the money issue (i.e. the issue of being overpaid)-I'm not seeing that excuse.

    Swisher, Rios, Taveras. One is cheaper but he's also not like the others in other meaningful ways....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #71
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Speaking of trade targets, Ken Rosenthal says the Angels may trade Erick Aybar for a reliever...I've always been a fan of Aybar. He's currently posting a .710 OPS and playing solid defense. He would be an upgrade over Gonzalez.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    In his last two seasons he's OPS'd .852 and .798 how does that average out to .775? He started horribly this season, but since the end of April he's OPS'd .830+. So he had a a little bit of a down year last season, but it looks like he'll be back up over .800 this year.
    When I referrd to his last two years, I was referring to 2008 and this year.

    He's currently at .760. I don't see how that translates to "looks like he'll be back up to over .800 this year"?

    Look, I think Rios is a good player. I just don't think he's a star, definitely not worth giving up guys like Bailey, Heisley and Roneke so we can pay him $12M per season to play for us. If we had essentially unlimited payroll, maybe OK. But that money will have to come from somewhere else.

  14. #73
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    When I referrd to his last two years, I was referring to 2008 and this year.

    He's currently at .760. I don't see how that translates to "looks like he'll be back up to over .800 this year"?

    Look, I think Rios is a good player. I just don't think he's a star, definitely not worth giving up guys like Bailey, Heisley and Roneke so we can pay him $12M per season to play for us. If we had essentially unlimited payroll, maybe OK. But that money will have to come from somewhere else.
    Yeah, that's what I figured, but it's not really fair to count this year in his last two years since it's not even halfway over. Also, as I posted he's been at .830+ since the end of April. He simply got off to a horrible start. So, yeah, it looks like he'll be over .800 again this year.

  15. #74
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Just a couple of additions on Rios. Dewan rates him the 3rd-best overall RF from 2006-2008 at a +43. He's been double digit positives in each of those three seasons, which is notable consistency. His +43 is even better than Carl Crawford's +33 in LF (and Crawford is measured against some of the most dire fielders in the game).

    Rios has also averaged 21 Win Shares the past three seasons (and, again, he's been quite consistent). That translates to 7 wins in WS math and, generally speaking, anyone who can consistently deliver 20+ WS is a very good player (Curtis Granderson is a similar player). Someone who can deliver 25+ on a consistent basis is a superstar.

    If he remains essentially what he was from 2006-8, he'll be a bargain on his future paychecks. Obviously that goes out the window if you think he's sliding, but I suspect if he were a Reds player from the system in similar circumstances, most here would be thrilled to see him locked up into the middle of the next decade for a $10M average.
    You're making way too much sense, M2.

    Which is why Rios will never be a Red. The moves that make sense just don't happen with the Reds. They continue to burn payroll on marginal guys, fringe guys, and role players.

  16. #75
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Alex Rios?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Speaking of trade targets, Ken Rosenthal says the Angels may trade Erick Aybar for a reliever...I've always been a fan of Aybar. He's currently posting a .710 OPS and playing solid defense. He would be an upgrade over Gonzalez.
    Weathers to the Angels, sign me up.

    Throw in Carlos Fisher to carry his bags.


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