Great stuff as usual from Justin.
It's full of charts, so I don't know how to post those up here. If someone does, please do.
Basically it breaks down by position how the Reds have done defensively since 2002. In the charts, Red is very bad, Blue is very good. From 2002-08, there was lots of Red. This year is almost all blue.
He extrapolated 2009 based on the first 53 games of this year. Last year the Reds had a -42 bUZR. This year, they are on pace for a +55bUZR.
That a difference of 97 more plays made this year than last year.
Who knows how accurate bUZR is, but even if it is just 75% accurate, that's still 72 more plays. And if Tango is right and each missed play is worth .8 runs, that means the Reds will save at least 58 runs on defense this year, over last. That's close to 6 wins. If it's 90% accurate, that 70 runs, or 7 wins. That's like adding Hanley Rameriz.