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Thread: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.
    If Wily Taveras is a true .330 OBP player why would his OBP average be hovering around the .300 mark? I do see your point with the Gamblers Fallacy bu there are too many variables with a baseball player than somewhat fixed variables in Gambling.

    There is no such thing as a "true" anything in sports. Averages in baseball aren't static, they are constantly moving. There are peaks and valleys in a given season. At time a player is hot and playing above his average, at others he is cold and playing below his average. Once you get enough at bats or a big enough sample size the average will regress to its mean.

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    If Wily Taveras is a true .330 OBP player why would his OBP average be hovering around the .300 mark? I do see your point with the Gamblers Fallacy bu there are too many variables with a baseball player than somewhat fixed variables in Gambling.

    There is no such thing as a "true" anything in sports. Averages in baseball aren't static, they are constantly moving. There are peaks and valleys in a given season. At time a player is hot and playing above his average, at others he is cold and playing below his average. Once you get enough at bats or a big enough sample size the average will regress to its mean.
    Firstly, let's be clear about what "true" means. There is no way to know what a player's true skill level with absolute certainty. Our best guess of this true skill level is based on what the player has done in the past over a large number of plate appearances. If we have reason to believe his skills have changed since then, or that he has been particularly lucky or unlucky over that period of time, we might adjust our estimate accordingly. However, given that Taveras' OBP for his career is, if anything, higher than we would expect it to be based on his component skills, .330 is a fair estimate of his true skill level.

    To your question, the reason his OBP is hovering around .300 is because .330 is an average over a theoretically infinite number of plate appearances. Just like if you toss a die an infinite number of times, you'll get a 6 on 1/6 of those rolls. However, if you only toss the die 6 times, you're not guaranteed to get exactly one 6. In fact, it's unlikely you'll get exactly one 6. What's more likely is that you'll get either zero 6's or two plus 6's. As the number of rolls increases, the proportion of rolls that are 6's will get closer and closer to 1/6. This is called the law of large numbers.

    It works the same way in baseball. Take an established .300 hitter. In 10 at bats, he could hit anywhere from .000 (0/10) to .700 (7/10) and nobody would be surprised -- "small sample size". Make that number 100 and .000 (0/100) or .700 (70/100) would be quite unlikely. It's going to be more like .150 (15/100) and .450 (45/100). Make that number 500 and it's going to be more like .250 (125/500) and .350 (175/500). As the number of at bats increases, the tighter the range in which he might reasonably perform becomes. Make it 5000 at bats, and you probably have most of his career -- and he'll be pretty darn close to his "true skill".

    So, why is Taveras' OBP hovering around .300? Because it is -- that's the sum of his performances this far. What you might call "streakiness" is exactly what we would expect to see if it was all happening randomly. If Taveras is a .330 OBP guy, there will be times when he goes 0-20 and times when he goes 10-20. He's not really shifting his skills from a great player to a bad one and back. He's just experiencing streaks in his results. Just like there will be times when you roll 3 6's in a roll. It doesn't mean you went through a period of being skilled at rolling 6's.

    Streaks happen. Wild shifts in performance are expected over small samples -- and 200 at bats is a small sample in baseball. But they don't imply a wild shift in ability. Willy Taveras' most likely performance moving forward is the one based on his skill level -- a .330 OBP. He could be better than that moving forward. He could be worse than that moving forward. But .330 is the most likely. That estimation is based on his skill level, which doesn't change simply because he's got a .300 OBP so far this season.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So, why is Taveras' OBP hovering around .300? Because it is -- that's the sum of his performances this far. What you might call "streakiness" is exactly what we would expect to see if it was all happening randomly. If Taveras is a .330 OBP guy, there will be times when he goes 0-20 and times when he goes 10-20. He's not really shifting his skills from a great player to a bad one and back. He's just experiencing streaks in his results. Just like there will be times when you roll 3 6's in a roll. It doesn't mean you went through a period of being skilled at rolling 6's.

    Streaks happen. Wild shifts in performance are expected over small samples -- and 200 at bats is a small sample in baseball. But they don't imply a wild shift in ability. Willy Taveras' most likely performance moving forward is the one based on his skill level -- a .330 OBP. He could be better than that moving forward. He could be worse than that moving forward. But .330 is the most likely. That estimation is based on his skill level, which doesn't change simply because he's got a .300 OBP so far this season.
    RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.

    IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.

    Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.

    IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.

    Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?
    I'd say the best bet is that the flip will come up heads 400 times out of the next 800 unless there was a reason the coin flip wasn't honest. If the next 200 flips also resulted in roughly 110 heads, i'd adjust my assessment and assume the coin isn't honest (i.e. the true expectation of the outcome isn't 50:50)
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.

    IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.
    Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?[/QUOTE]

    Given your example, my new estimate for the total number of heads would be the current number of heads, 110, plus the number I expect to see in the remaining 800 flips based on my knowledge of the "true skill" of the flip -- 50% of 400 heads.

    So my new estimate for the number of heads in THIS sample of 1000 flips is 510. That's what you're missing, this season is still just a sample against that "true skill". His true skill is not what his number will be at some point in time (say, the end of the season), but rather what his performance will be moving forward. At the beginning of the season, with 0 PA under his belt, .330 was our best guess. But at this point in the season, with a ~200 PA of a ~.300 OBP already having occurred, our estimate for his end of the season number changes. You are fixing .330 as his end of the season number when it's actually his rest of the season number.

    It's actually simple. We're talking about 3 numbers.
    1) OBP to date
    2) OBP moving forward
    3) OBP at the end of the season

    The formula we've been discussing is 3 = 1 + 2. His OBP at the end of the season (3) is a combination of how his current OBP (1) and the OBP he puts up the rest of the way (2).

    #1 is completely simple. We know what his OBP so far is and in how many PA.

    #2 is what we've been calling is "true skill". This number doesn't change unless we think he actually has become a worse or better hitter. This whole conversation is based on the assumption that his actually ability to hit doesn't change throughout the course of the season. It's his performance that varies. These are two different things. A streak of 6's doesn't mean you've gotten better at rolling 6's -- just that you rolled a few 6's.

    #3 is based on a combination of #1 and #2. At the beginning of this season, #1 was zero, since he didn't have any plate appearances. Thus #2 and #3 were the same thing (.330). But now that he's had a few hundred plate appearances, the math changes.

    Beginning of the season:
    (.000 OBP in 0% of his PA this season) + (.330 OBP in 100% of his PA this season) = .330 OBP this season

    Now
    (.294 OBP in 35% PA this season) + (.330 OBP in 65% of his PA this season) = .317 OBP this season.

    Again, the trick is that we only expect this season's OBP to be the same as his true skill when we have no information about how he's performed so far. They are not fated to be equal. It's just our best guess absent any other information. But if we know how well he's performed this far, that doesn't change how we expect him to perform moving forward. Our anchor point is .330 moving forward, not .330 by the time he accrues 600 PA.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Say you're rolling a die and you've gone 30 throws without throwing a 6. You know that since there's a 1/6 chance of throwing a 6 on any given roll. Thus, in that time period you expected to have seen 5 6's, on average. So you surmise that you're "due" and expect a run of 6's sometime in the near future to "balance things out"... right?

    This is called the gambler's fallacy. Probability simply doesn't work that way. In reality, what's likely to happen is that from this point forward, you'll see 1/6 of your rolls showing up as 6's.

    So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.

    The mistake is made because we forget our assumptions. The most likely result of future events is based on the player's skill level. The player's skill level doesn't change because of what he did yesterday, or last month. Taveras won't be a better hitter tomorrow because he struggled yesterday. So if we want to know what is likely to happen moving forward, if he's the same player he was on April 1st, we expect a .330 OBP moving forward. If want to know what to expect by the end of year, we simply take the sample we've observed and add it to our best guess about what's likely to happen moving forward.

    So, given that we know that his OBP through 218 PA is .294, and we would predict a .330 OBP over the remainder of his PA (say 350), we would expect his final OBP to be around .316.
    Re-read what I said. The key is that I am talking about moving his career number back to his true skill level, .330, not having this season's number end at .330.

    The difference between a players stats and the odds of a coin flip, is that the odds of the coin flip are taking into account every coin flip in the history of time, as you pointed out. The odds of Taveras getting on base is based only on his PA's, which are finite, and have a beginning and an end. That changes the effect the odds have on his remaining PA's, if we are too assume that the .330 number is fixed and reflects his true skill level.

    Let's say that this is the only coin in the world, and we are going to flip it 1000 times. And the odds are fixed, so that it over the 1000 times, it will end up heads 500 times and tails 500 times. If the first 500 are 300 heads and 200 tails, the next 500 would have to be 200 heads and 300 tails.

    That is exactly what you are saying when you are saying that Taveras' skill level is .330. You are saying that at the end of his career, he will have an .330 OBP. Therefore, if his career numbers are at .327 right now, in order for him to reach .330 at the end of his career, he must hit better than .330 to get back to his true skill level. (And I am hoping that he doesn't have too many more PA's as a Red.)

    Now all of this is predicated on believing that his numbers represent his true skill level, and that they are fixed, like the odds of a coin. I think no one in this discussion believes that. However, that was the premise from which I was working.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Let's say that this is the only coin in the world, and we are going to flip it 1000 times. And the odds are fixed, so that it over the 1000 times, it will end up heads 500 times and tails 500 times. If the first 500 are 300 heads and 200 tails, the next 500 would have to be 200 heads and 300 tails.

    That is exactly what you are saying when you are saying that Taveras' skill level is .330. You are saying that at the end of his career, he will have an .330 OBP. Therefore, if his career numbers are at .327 right now, in order for him to reach .330 at the end of his career, he must hit better than .330 to get back to his true skill level. (And I am hoping that he doesn't have too many more PA's as a Red.)

    Now all of this is predicated on believing that his numbers represent his true skill level, and that they are fixed, like the odds of a coin. I think no one in this discussion believes that. However, that was the premise from which I was working.
    You're still missing it. The odds of that coin going 50% heads and 50% tails is not determined by the number of times we flip it. It's a fundamental characteristic of the coin itself. You're working backwards.

    I'm not saying that Taveras will have a .330 OBP at the end of his career. I'm saying that if he had an infinite number of plate appearances, he would hit .330. But he won't and can't have an infinite number of plate appearances. So he'll end up an OBP that is more or less .330. Generally speaking, the more plate appearances he gets, the closer to .330 that cumulative OBP will get. However, over any finite number of plate appearances, our best guess of his OBP for that sample will always be .330. We can't fix it at an arbitrary end point such as the end of the season. I know it's sort of counter-intuitive, but that's where infinity comes in play. As the denominator increases, the small sample of plate appearances we've seen so far becomes increasingly insignificant such that the current sample becomes meaningless.

    To put it another way, a hitter with a true skill level of .330 OBP might end up with a career value of .327. Your true skill level is not determined by your performance. Rather it is something that already exists as a function of your ability. Your performance is simply that "true skill" in action, producing variable results over time around that mean. How quickly your performance nears your true skill varies from skill to skill, some regress faster than others. But even a full career doesn't guarantee that your performance will match your true skill, let alone a full season -- this is the assertion you're trying to make.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-12-2009 at 05:22 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You're still missing it. The odds of that coin going 50% heads and 50% tails is not determined by our 1000 flips. It has nothing to do with how many times we choose to flip it. It's a fundamental characteristic of the coin itself.
    Right. Not arguing that. Read what I wrote. I will put it in here again.


    The difference between a players stats and the odds of a coin flip, is that the odds of the coin flip are taking into account every coin flip in the history of time, as you pointed out. The odds of Taveras getting on base is based only on his PA's, which are finite, and have a beginning and an end. That changes the effect the odds have on his remaining PA's, if we are too assume that the .330 number is fixed and reflects his true skill level.

    Let's say that this is the only coin in the world, and we are going to flip it 1000 times. And the odds are fixed, so that it over the 1000 times, it will end up heads 500 times and tails 500 times. If the first 500 are 300 heads and 200 tails, the next 500 would have to be 200 heads and 300 tails.
    If Taveras had an infinite career (very scary thought ) then the rules of the coin flip would apply to his OBP. But it is not, thank God, so if we are to say that his OBP is fixed, but within a finite number of PA's, it is just like the example above of the only coin in the world.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    Right. Not arguing that. Read what I wrote. I will put it in here again.

    If Taveras had an infinite career (very scary thought ) then the rules of the coin flip would apply to his OBP. But it is not, thank God, so if we are to say that his OBP is fixed, but within a finite number of PA's, it is just like the example above of the only coin in the world.
    Except we aren't saying that his actual OBP is fixed, just his skill level which produces the OBP. In the coin flip example, the odds of hitting heads stays at 50% as a function of the coin itself. It has nothing to do with how many times you flip it. It's the coin itself, it's design and the process of flipping, that determines those odds. Whether you've previously flipped heads or tails doesn't change those things which actually determine your odds of getting a heads or tails in the future. And as soon as you take a sample of X observed flips (or plate appearances), as you must do in the real world, there's a range of possible outcomes centered around the true skill level.

    The gamblers fallacy points out that the odds don't change simply because you have a certain sample in the bag already. The odds are fixed determined by those conditions of the game. A sample simply provides you real life evidence of what those true odds (or true skill) might be. As the sample gets bigger, the more confident you can be that what you've observed is close to the real odds. If for some reason you know what the real odds are, then you're all set. Your best guess about what's likely to happen in the future is based on those odds and is completely independent of what has happened so far.

    We are surmising that just like the coin has a "true skill" of 50% heads based on the nature of coin itself and act of flipping it, we're surmising that Taveras has a true skill of 33% on base based on the nature of his abilities and the act of getting on on base. That he's flipped his 33% coin 218 this year and ended up with a 29.5% rate of "on base" doesn't change the odds moving forward.

    It's not like Taveras has a bag with 5,000 plate appearances in it with 1,650 times on base among them. If this were the case, you'd be correct. The odds would change after each plate appearance. But the bag of plate appearances from which he's drawing isn't the finite number which he'll get in his career or in this season, but rather an infinite number. That you've pulled 218 from the bottomless bag doesn't change the odds of the next 1, 100, or 1000 of being on base. They all remain 33%.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-12-2009 at 05:37 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    I would be ecstatic if Walt was somehow able to trade away Dusty's favorite toy. But seeing as how Walt was the one who signed him to a 2 year deal in the first place...
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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Say you're rolling a die and you've gone 30 throws without throwing a 6. You know that since there's a 1/6 chance of throwing a 6 on any given roll. Thus, in that time period you expected to have seen 5 6's, on average. So you surmise that you're "due" and expect a run of 6's sometime in the near future to "balance things out"... right?

    This is called the gambler's fallacy. Probability simply doesn't work that way. In reality, what's likely to happen is that from this point forward, you'll see 1/6 of your rolls showing up as 6's.

    So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.

    The mistake is made because we forget our assumptions. The most likely result of future events is based on the player's skill level. The player's skill level doesn't change because of what he did yesterday, or last month. Taveras won't be a better hitter tomorrow because he struggled yesterday. So if we want to know what is likely to happen moving forward, if he's the same player he was on April 1st, we expect a .330 OBP moving forward. If want to know what to expect by the end of year, we simply take the sample we've observed and add it to our best guess about what's likely to happen moving forward.

    So, given that we know that his OBP through 218 PA is .294, and we would predict a .330 OBP over the remainder of his PA (say 350), we would expect his final OBP to be around .316.
    You deserve 10,000 imaginary probabilistic rep points for this post.

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Except we aren't saying that his actual OBP is fixed, just his skill level which produces the OBP. In the coin flip example, the odds of hitting heads stays at 50% as a function of the coin itself. It has nothing to do with how many times you flip it. It's the coin itself, it's design and the process of flipping, that determines those odds. Whether you've previously flipped heads or tails doesn't change those things which actually determine your odds of getting a heads or tails in the future. And as soon as you take a sample of X observed flips (or plate appearances), as you must do in the real world, there's a range of possible outcomes centered around the true skill level.

    The gamblers fallacy points out that the odds don't change simply because you have a certain sample in the bag already. The odds are fixed determined by those conditions of the game. A sample simply provides you real life evidence of what those true odds (or true skill) might be. As the sample gets bigger, the more confident you can be that what you've observed is close to the real odds. If for some reason you know what the real odds are, then you're all set. Your best guess about what's likely to happen in the future is based on those odds and is completely independent of what has happened so far.

    We are surmising that just like the coin has a "true skill" of 50% heads based on the nature of coin itself and act of flipping it, we're surmising that Taveras has a true skill of 33% on base based on the nature of his abilities and the act of getting on on base. That he's flipped his 33% coin 218 this year and ended up with a 29.5% rate of "on base" doesn't change the odds moving forward.

    It's not like Taveras has a bag with 5,000 plate appearances in it with 1,650 times on base among them. If this were the case, you'd be correct. The odds would change after each plate appearance. But the bag of plate appearances from which he's drawing isn't the finite number which he'll get in his career or in this season, but rather an infinite number. That you've pulled 218 from the bottomless bag doesn't change the odds of the next 1, 100, or 1000 of being on base. They all remain 33%.
    I understand your point, now. You were working under the assumption that Taveras' skill level is fixed, and I was working under the assumption that his OBP is fixed.

    Obviously, neither is the case, since nothing in human dynamics is fixed like it is with a coin flip. I guess the next step is to discuss the relationship between a players skill level and his actual numbers, but I gotta go. Maybe later?

    Thanks for the lively, informative discussion. I know I enjoyed it
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    I understand your point, now. You were working under the assumption that Taveras' skill level is fixed, and I was working under the assumption that his OBP is fixed.

    Obviously, neither is the case, since nothing in human dynamics is fixed like it is with a coin flip. I guess the next step is to discuss the relationship between a players skill level and his actual numbers, but I gotta go. Maybe later?

    Thanks for the lively, informative discussion. I know I enjoyed it
    It's fixed in the sense that the estimate of his true skill is fixed over a projection sample. There are obviously developmental curves, aging curves and injuries etc. Those effects are largely built into the projection of his true skill. Also the estimate of a player's true skill is constantly effected by new performance data.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    And to get off topic...Taveras is in the lineup, leading off against a RHP and Dickerson sits - with the DH. I think Dusty's doing this just to try and prove people wrong, seriously.
    This place use to be fun

  16. #75
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?

    Willy Taveras OPS is .595

    Not a "league average" .760 or so for a CF.

    Not an "OK if he's cheap and plays good "D" .725

    Not an "all right if I have no one else" .700

    not even a "well he's a bench player who plays a PR/Defensive replacement/designated bunter role" .650

    he has a "why am I even in the majors at all?" .595.

    Arguing that he should start over anyone is beyond reason. The Reds have 8 players in the organization to turn to in CF if Dickerson should prove to be a total bust who would provide a better game than Willy (Nix, Bruce, Hairston, McDonald, Hopper, Stubbs, Heisey and Henry) and every one of them is as good or better defensively.

    A number of baseball figures did stupid things to ruin their legacy. Pete Rose gambled, Joe Jackson conspired, a whole bunch juiced, Bill Buckner misplayed a ground ball. Walt Jocketty may go down as the guy who signed Willy.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-12-2009 at 07:10 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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