Reds Top Prospects- June Edition (post-draft)

[Benihana]

I expect Francisco to play in the major leagues. I have my doubts that he will be at third.

I've been clamoring for some time now for the Reds to try him behind the plate. Unfortunately it may be too late for that, but I still think it would be an interesting move for him. He has the footwork ability and the arm...

[Benihana]

One thing that may be worth considering is that Buchholz completely skipped A-ball. If he were putting up solid numbers in Dayton, I can't help but think he would've made your list.

And if you're going to let Dorn's platoon splits have such a big effect, what's with the middle relievers who would have a much smaller impact than Dorn?

I understand where you're coming from with Buchholz. I liked his debut a lot last year before he got hurt and I'll continue to keep an eye on him. Both he and Reed are 21, however, and that is usually the right age for Sarasota.

As far as the middle relievers go, Pedro Viola is the only example of this- and one could make a strong argument (as others have) that he doesn't belong on this list. Manuel is one to keep an eye on mainly because of the numbers he has put up fairly consistently over the last two years. However, by most accounts, his stuff isn't all that great.

[fearofpopvol1]

First, I said that Soto could be the second best hitting prospect. And it's true. I like Frazier a lot, and he is more likely to make the majors than any player in the Reds' system right now. However, his lack of power so far this year is a little troubling. Granted, he's getting on base at an impressive clip and a lot of his doubles could turn into dingers as he progresses, Frazier strikes me more of a very solid major leaguer, maybe similar to a Sean Casey, while Soto appears to have more upside. It just depends on what you prefer- Frazier is the safer pick while Soto has potentially more upside. I still ranked Frazier ahead of Soto as a prospect due to Soto's young age and inconsistency so far this year, but don't be surprised if Soto is an All-Star someday. (Also don't be surprised if he never makes it as a regular starter- that's why they're harder to read the younger they are.)

Doubles are still considered "power." Frazier's home run totals may be down, but the doubles count for something. And Frazier has hit a LOT of them this year. Sean Casey had a year or two where he hit for some power...but he was primarily a singles hitter. Frazier has shown more.

[Benihana]

Doubles are still considered "power." Frazier's home run totals may be down, but the doubles count for something. And Frazier has hit a LOT of them this year. Sean Casey had a year or two where he hit for some power...but he was primarily a singles hitter. Frazier has shown more.

I agree, and that's why I said in my post that hopefully a lot of those doubles could turn into dingers.

As far as Casey goes, I believe that a lot of the reason he was primarily a singles hitter (as opposed to doubles) was attributable to his Bo Diaz-like speed.

I don't think that Frazier and Casey are identical players at all- Frazier is significantly more valuable defensively and probably has more power. I just made the comp because I wouldn't be surprised if they put up similar numbers as pros and have similar very solid careers.

Soto OTOH is the more volatile asset to forecast- with both his floor and his ceiling.

[Benihana]

Viola is better than a C. He has not "fallen apart" in the last month. He had two bad outings in mid-May and after that has been very effective. He could cut down on walks but he is not hurting himself with them.

Alonso is struggling to find his bat in AA and that's just about where I see him. I don't think that earns an A.

While we don't know where Valaika would be if he didn't break his hand, he didn't show me anything at AAA except his glove. Even then, he had too many errors. Maybe C is too kind.

Heisey should be an A, no question.

Soto is young for A+ but I'd give him a C.

Mesoraco doesn't rate a C.

Carson Kainer might get a mention but he's a little old for A+.

Drew Sutton should get a mention.

Richar has shown a lot of improvement in my eyes. He may turn out to be a player afterall.

I rated Viola as a C because he projects to a middle reliever/LOOGY at the big league level. Many people have argued that because of this, he doesn't even belong on this list. That said, I do see him in Cincy by the end of the year.

Alonso has true All-Star ability. He has less than three months under his professional belt, and he has not disappointed so far. I expect him to start hitting in Carolina any day now.

Valaika will at least get a shot at the major league level, I'm pretty confident giving him a C grade.

While his numbers this year have been off the charts, I'm not ready to say that Heisey is a Grade A prospect and potential All-Star. Most people agree that he grades out similar to Stubbs, who at this point probably has the edge due to his projection and higher level. While Stubbs may profile to a major league starter, I'd be surprised if he makes multiple All-Star teams at the big league level. Therefore Heisey is not, in my opinion, "an A no question."

Some people may agree with you that Soto is ranked too high, but I am high on him. While he provides no guarantees, his ceiling gets him into the B category on my board.

You may be right about Mesoraco. He is certainly not one of my favorite players, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point. However, if he's putting up similar numbers in Sarasota at this point next year, you won't see him on any of my lists.

While he is a good story, I'd like to see more out of Kainer at the higher levels.

Sutton does get mention in the original post- he's just too old to be included on the list. I think he deserves a shot in Cincy this summer. In fact I wouldn't argue if he is promoted this month and Frazier replaces him as the 3B in Louisville.

Richar screams fringe to me. At best he is a utility guy, and I like Sutton, Valaika and Rosales better.

[mth123]

Beni, this is a nice discussion. I like threads like this and mostly agree with your assessment.

So lets consider the situation for a minute. The Reds currently are struggling mightily to score runs and the future of the offense depends on big time production from a 22 year old kid who seems to be struggling a lot under the pressure and a currently sidelined young hitter whose situation suggests that he probably doesn't need the pressure of being the centerpiece. Many would like to see the Reds trade some vets and bring in more young talent, but with all their problems, the Reds are 2.5 back in the Central and only 1 back in the wild card. I just don't see this team dealing off guys like Arroyo, Harang, Cordero or Weathers and dumping the season. I think its more likely that the Reds will be dealing off some of the near ready minor league depth to bring in a bat or two. Its a win now move, but if the new guys become the focal point, it may end up paying dividends down the road if Votto can get back in there without having to be the savior and Bruce can continue to develop without trying to hit 5 run homers every time up.

That begs the question of who to deal. I think your idea of eliminating guys over 25 is probably a place to start and some deeper areas also need to be considered. IMO the Reds probably could deal from the following areas:

Bullpen arms: Fisher is up and seems like a keeper, Masset is still young and doing well, Herrera has been pretty good and Burton is looking better lately. With Cordero, Weathers and Rhodes probably in place for contention it seems like there won't be room for kids on the verge like Roenicke, Manuel and Viola. With Bray on the DL and guys like Ramirez capable of pen duty and Stewart a potential impact guy should the Reds need to make that move down the stretch, there is enough depth to deal a couple. I'd say Roenicke, Manuel and maybe Logan Ondrusek and Sean Watson would be guys to try to deal for some major league help.

Mid-Level Hitters looking for a position: Chris Valaika, Todd Frazier and Drew Sutton fall into this group. In all probability, there will be a super sub spot for one of these guys and if EdE is dealt maybe two. I think at least one of these guys could be moved and whichever one completes the best overall deal from the Reds perspective should be the one to go,

Third Base Depth: Juan Francisco and Netalfi Soto look like players who may command some return back and IMO neither may ever be better than EdE is now. I'd deal at least one (my preference is keep Soto and deal Francisco).

Centrfielders: Heisey and Stubbs. Stubbs and Heisey. With Dickerson available to platoon if the one the Reds keep falls short, I'd deal one for sure and groom the other. I still think Stubbs probably has the most trade value even though Heisey may not be far off. I'd include Stubbs in a deal and attempt to make Heisey the guy. If Heisey hits a wall, he could platoon with Dickerson and the combo would probably still provide adequete offense and defense at the position on the cheap until Yorman Rodriguez is ready.

Near Ready Starters I'm one of the few who still thinks Homer Bailey is the best long term option of the minor league starters, but he will be out of option years after the season and if he can make a deal happen that brings something back for multiple seasons he may need to go. Matt Maloney has looked OK but his HR tendancies are concerning. He's another guy I'd part with if necessary. Micah Owings has been OK as a back end guy, but he's replaceable and with Maloney and Bailey (as well as Wood, Stewart and Ramirez) around to backfill, he's a good candidate to deal if he can fetch a nice return back. Mike Leake will be coming on the scene and may make it easier to deal one or two of the AAA or AA starters.

In summary, I'd deal for a couple of bats. One that can play OF or 3B and hopefully a younger guy who can play SS. The guys I'd deal: Roenicke, Manuel, Watson, Ondrusek, Stubbs, Francisco, Valaika and one of Maloney or Owings. I'd deal Bailey, Wood, Frazier and/or Soto only if the return was for multiple years at a position of need. I wouldn't deal Alonso or Stewart at this point. Anyone not mentioned would probably not have much value.

[Benihana]

Beni, this is a nice discussion. I like threads like this and mostly agree with your assessment.

So lets consider the situation for a minute. The Reds currently are struggling mightily to score runs and the future of the offense depends on big time production from a 22 year old kid who seems to be struggling a lot under the pressure and a currently sidelined young hitter whose situation suggests that he probably doesn't need the pressure of being the centerpiece. Many would like to see the Reds trade some vets and bring in more young talent, but with all their problems, the Reds are 2.5 back in the Central and only 1 back in the wild card. I just don't see this team dealing off guys like Arroyo, Harang, Cordero or Weathers and dumping the season. I think its more likely that the Reds will be dealing off some of the near ready minor league depth to bring in a bat or two. Its a win now move, but if the new guys become the focal point, it may end up paying dividends down the road if Votto can get back in there without having to be the savior and Bruce can continue to develop without trying to hit 5 run homers every time up.

That begs the question of who to deal. I think your idea of eliminating guys over 25 is probably a place to start and some deeper areas also need to be considered. IMO the Reds probably could deal from the following areas:

Bullpen arms: Fisher is up and seems like a keeper, Masset is still young and doing well, Herrera has been pretty good and Burton is looking better lately. With Cordero, Weathers and Rhodes probably in place for contention it seems like there won't be room for kids on the verge like Roenicke, Manuel and Viola. With Bray on the DL and guys like Ramirez capable of pen duty and Stewart a potential impact guy should the Reds need to make that move down the stretch, there is enough depth to deal a couple. I'd say Roenicke, Manuel and maybe Logan Ondrusek and Sean Watson would be guys to try to deal for some major league help.

Mid-Level Hitters looking for a position: Chris Valaika, Todd Frazier and Drew Sutton fall into this group. In all probability, there will be a super sub spot for one of these guys and if EdE is dealt maybe two. I think at least one of these guys could be moved and whichever one completes the best overall deal from the Reds perspective should be the one to go,

Third Base Depth: Juan Francisco and Netalfi Soto look like players who may command some return back and IMO neither may ever be better than EdE is now. I'd deal at least one (my preference is keep Soto and deal Francisco).

Centrfielders: Heisey and Stubbs. Stubbs and Heisey. With Dickerson available to platoon if the one the Reds keep falls short, I'd deal one for sure and groom the other. I still think Stubbs probably has the most trade value even though Heisey may not be far off. I'd include Stubbs in a deal and attempt to make Heisey the guy. If Heisey hits a wall, he could platoon with Dickerson and the combo would probably still provide adequete offense and defense at the position on the cheap until Yorman Rodriguez is ready.

Near Ready Starters I'm one of the few who still thinks Homer Bailey is the best long term option of the minor league starters, but he will be out of option years after the season and if he can make a deal happen that brings something back for multiple seasons he may need to go. Matt Maloney has looked OK but his HR tendancies are concerning. He's another guy I'd part with if necessary. Micah Owings has been OK as a back end guy, but he's replaceable and with Maloney and Bailey (as well as Wood, Stewart and Ramirez) around to backfill, he's a good candidate to deal if he can fetch a nice return back. Mike Leake will be coming on the scene and may make it easier to deal one or two of the AAA or AA starters.

In summary, I'd deal for a couple of bats. One that can play OF or 3B and hopefully a younger guy who can play SS. The guys I'd deal: Roenicke, Manuel, Watson, Ondrusek, Stubbs, Francisco, Valaika and one of Maloney or Owings. I'd deal Bailey, Wood, Frazier and/or Soto only if the return was for multiple years at a position of need. I wouldn't deal Alonso or Stewart at this point. Anyone not mentioned would probably not have much value.

Great post mth123, I agree with almost all of it.

The only places where I might take issue are as follows:

First, I would prefer not to deal Todd Frazier, as I think he is the likely 3B for the next 5+ years. I would also prefer to hang onto Soto if possible, but like almost everyone else he could definitely be had in the right deal.

I also agree that the Reds should probably trade Stubbs or Heisey, but my guess is Heisey goes between the two and I'm fine with that. Now would be a great time to sell high on Heisey.

I would target a LF (preferably one that hits righty but not mandatory) and a young SS. With the 3B's in the pipeline, I don't think that position needs to be upgraded for the long term- unless of course they believe Frazier is a LF and not a 3B. I would also like to see if Ryan Hanigan continues to produce at his current level all year. If so, that may take care of the backstop problem for next year, although finding a backup would be necessary.

But other than these minor quibbles, I think your analysis is spot-on and couldn't agree more.

[mth123]

Great post mth123, I agree with almost all of it.

The only places where I might take issue are as follows:

First, I would prefer not to deal Todd Frazier, as I think he is the likely 3B for the next 5+ years. I would also prefer to hang onto Soto if possible, but like almost everyone else he could definitely be had in the right deal.

I also agree that the Reds should probably trade Stubbs or Heisey, but my guess is Heisey goes between the two and I'm fine with that. Now would be a great time to sell high on Heisey.

I would target a LF (preferably one that hits righty but not mandatory) and a young SS. With the 3B's in the pipeline, I don't think that position needs to be upgraded for the long term- unless of course they believe Frazier is a LF and not a 3B. I would also like to see if Ryan Hanigan continues to produce at his current level all year. If so, that may take care of the backstop problem for next year, although finding a backup would be necessary.

But other than these minor quibbles, I think your analysis is spot-on and couldn't agree more.

So what could a Stubbs or Heisey, Roenicke, Owings, Valaika and Francisco package bring back? I'd think that would interest a lot of teams. The A's might like Stubbs OBP, Roenicke's stuff, Valaika's utility and may be creative enough to try Owings as a Pitcher/DH combo who would have a lot more value than the normal 5th starter or part time DH. The A's are 8 games back in last place and behind a bunch of teams in the wild card, and while I'm not one of the many that are clamoring for a rental of Holiday, the A's may be the most likely team to value what the Reds have to offer. I wouldn't deal Bailey, Wood, or Frazier for a rental, but given the positive impact it may have on Bruce and Votto, parting with Stubbs, Owings, Valaika and Roenicke wouldn't bother me at all.

Stubbs, Owings, Vailaka and Roenicke for Holiday. Heisey moves to AAA, Volquez takes Owings spot with Maloney staying in the rotation and moving Roenicke clears a bit of the logjam in the pen.

Dealing young pitching like Roenicke and Owings is a little scary, but youth is relative and Roenicke is 27 in August and Owings will be 27 in September. Bailey and Ramirez are still in AAA for depth with Wood, Stewart, Jordan Smith, hopefully Mike Leake and even the suddenly possible James Avery at AA. Scott Carroll is back, along with Jeremy Horst and even filler arms like Jukich, Lecure and Smit to provide depth. In the pen there is still Manuel, Viola, Ondrusek, Watson, and overlooked guys like Ramon Geronimo, Ruben Medina and the still young Phil Valiquette. For next season the system should have Darryl Thompson, Dallas Buck, Bill Bray and Kyle Lotzkar to add to the mix. This team can spare an arm or two, especially when there are younger, better ones to backfill. The question is really whether the arms we'd like to deal would really get anything back.

[Benihana]

So what could a Stubbs or Heisey, Roenicke, Owings, Valaika and Francisco package bring back? I'd think that would interest a lot of teams. The A's might like Stubbs OBP, Roenicke's stuff, Valaika's utility and may be creative enough to try Owings as a Pitcher/DH combo who would have a lot more value than the normal 5th starter or part time DH. The A's are 8 games back in last place and behind a bunch of teams in the wild card, and while I'm not one of the many that are clamoring for a rental of Holiday, the A's may be the most likely team to value what the Reds have to offer. I wouldn't deal Bailey, Wood, or Frazier for a rental, but given the positive impact it may have on Bruce and Votto, parting with Stubbs, Owings, Valaika and Roenicke wouldn't bother me at all.

Stubbs, Owings, Vailaka and Roenicke for Holiday. Heisey moves to AAA, Volquez takes Owings spot with Maloney staying in the rotation and moving Roenicke clears a bit of the logjam in the pen.

Dealing young pitching like Roenicke and Owings is a little scary, but youth is relative and Roenicke is 27 in August and Owings will be 27 in September. Bailey and Ramirez are still in AAA for depth with Wood, Stewart, Jordan Smith, hopefully Mike Leake and even the suddenly possible James Avery at AA. Scott Carroll is back, along with Jeremy Horst and even filler arms like Jukich, Lecure and Smit to provide depth. In the pen there is still Manuel, Viola, Ondrusek, Watson, and overlooked guys like Ramon Geronimo, Ruben Medina and the still young Phil Valiquette. For next season the system should have Darryl Thompson, Dallas Buck, Bill Bray and Kyle Lotzkar to add to the mix. This team can spare an arm or two, especially when there are younger, better ones to backfill. The question is really whether the arms we'd like to deal would really get anything back.

I like it, although I don't think Valaika would be in the deal. The A's two most recent first round picks were near ready/big-time college middle infielders with Grant Green and Jemile Weeks. Plus, I think a package of Stubbs/Heisey, Owings and Roenicke would be enough. I'd probably prefer to trade Heisey instead of Stubbs, but whatever works.

I'd look to acquire Rios before Holliday, but I'd be happy with doing that deal for Holliday.

Off topic, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds take a snag at Andy Marte and let him play 3B until EdE/Frazier are ready. I've been jonesing for him for a while, and he's tearing up AAA right now. Would Robert Manuel be enough? We already traded Cleveland a minor league reliever for one faded star prospect infielder who turned into an All-Star, can lightning strike twice?

If not Marte, I think Drew Sutton is ready for his shot. Let him play 3B until Edwin comes back, and let Fraizer play 3B in Louisville.