John Sickels on the Reds draft

[OnBaseMachine]

Cincinnati: While some might consider Arizona State RHP Mike Leake an overdraft at eighth overall, I don't; I think that's an excellent pick. He has very good stuff, and his excellent pitchability makes it all play up. USC RHP Brad Boxberger in the supplemental round needs to sharpen his control, but he is also an experienced college pitcher with good stuff, and also a legitimate pick in that spot. Second round Mississippi prep shortstop Billy Hamilton is an incredible athlete; quite raw, but with very high upside. University of Houston lefty Donnie Joseph looks like a sound choice in the third round, on the basis of his low-90s fastball, good slider, and strong college numbers. Fourth round UNC catcher Mark Fleury has decent power, a measure of patience, and should be solid with the glove. Dan Tuttle, fifth round North Carolina HS RHP, is a raw arm, but adds some youth to a college-oriented draft. Sixth round Oral Roberts RHP Mark Serrano and seventh round Cal State Fullerton OF Josh Fellhauer are steady college performers who won't be stars but should get to the majors in some capacity. I like the mixture of skill picks with some tool picks.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/...-central-draft

[kfm]

Cincinnati: While some might consider Arizona State RHP Mike Leake an overdraft at eighth overall, I don't; I think that's an excellent pick. He has very good stuff, and his excellent pitchability makes it all play up. USC RHP Brad Boxberger in the supplemental round needs to sharpen his control, but he is also an experienced college pitcher with good stuff, and also a legitimate pick in that spot. Second round Mississippi prep shortstop Billy Hamilton is an incredible athlete; quite raw, but with very high upside. University of Houston lefty Donnie Joseph looks like a sound choice in the third round, on the basis of his low-90s fastball, good slider, and strong college numbers. Fourth round UNC catcher Mark Fleury has decent power, a measure of patience, and should be solid with the glove. Dan Tuttle, fifth round North Carolina HS RHP, is a raw arm, but adds some youth to a college-oriented draft. Sixth round Oral Roberts RHP Mark Serrano and seventh round Cal State Fullerton OF Josh Fellhauer are steady college performers who won't be stars but should get to the majors in some capacity. I like the mixture of skill picks with some tool picks.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/...-central-draft

Thanks for posting this. Looks like someone likes the Reds draft.

[KoryMac5]

I think folks will warm to the draft based on what they see these kids do at each stop in the minors. Personally at the time I wasn't very excited about some of these kids, but I am starting to warm slowly as new information on these players becomes available. I mean how many years did it take for people to warm to Drew Stubbs?

[GIDP]

John Sickels always seems to like the Reds.

[Mario-Rijo]

I wasn't happy with the Boxberger pick and don't know if I'll ever be, I also thought Joseph was a bit of a reach where he was selected and Hamilton as well to a much lesser extent. Had they shifted those guys around a bit I'd have been completely content. Something like Leake, insert high upside high talent and highly skilled player here, Hamilton, Boxberger and then Joseph i'd have been a lot happier. That said guys like Silva, Marrero, Perez, Tuttle, Fellhauer, Fleury, Barnhart, Pearl, Serrano, Johnson and Fowler more than make up for it. Assuming of course they can actually sign all or most of them. It's really hard not to like what they have done here. Although an arm or 2 who can consistently hit mid to high 90's sure would have been nice to have gotten. But overall if they sign Marrero, Perez, Silva, Tuttle and Barnhart (along with the collegians) I'll be ecstatic about this draft.

[redsmetz]

I wasn't happy with the Boxberger pick and don't know if I'll ever be, I also thought Joseph was a bit of a reach where he was selected and Hamilton as well to a much lesser extent. Had they shifted those guys around a bit I'd have been completely content. Something like Leake, insert high upside high talent and highly skilled player here, Hamilton, Boxberger and then Joseph i'd have been a lot happier. That said guys like Silva, Marrero, Perez, Tuttle, Fellhauer, Fleury, Barnhart, Pearl, Serrano, Johnson and Fowler more than make up for it. Assuming of course they can actually sign all or most of them. It's really hard not to like what they have done here. Although an arm or 2 who can consistently hit mid to high 90's sure would have been nice to have gotten. But overall if they sign Marrero, Perez, Silva, Tuttle and Barnhart (along with the collegians) I'll be ecstatic about this draft.

Not trying to be snide, but I'm perplexed about the highlighted statement. Regardless of how it shakes out, we still have the same players. While I understand draft position will impact signability and bonuses, if we sign all of these guys (and Hamilton and Joseph are in the fold) what difference does it make?

[Homer Bailey]

Not trying to be snide, but I'm perplexed about the highlighted statement. Regardless of how it shakes out, we still have the same players. While I understand draft position will impact signability and bonuses, if we sign all of these guys (and Hamilton and Joseph are in the fold) what difference does it make?

I think he is referring to the fact that Boxberger was taken a bit too early, especially when there was a guy like Scheppers still on the board. If we could have gotten a talent like Scheppers at 43, then added the guys that we got a little bit later down the road, he would be much more happy. And I agree with that 100%.

[dougdirt]

I think he is referring to the fact that Boxberger was taken a bit too early, especially when there was a guy like Scheppers still on the board. If we could have gotten a talent like Scheppers at 43, then added the guys that we got a little bit later down the road, he would be much more happy. And I agree with that 100%.

Well it would be hard to disagree with his statement because we then would have gotten all of the talent we did get a round later. However none of those guys would have been available a round later. I still don't understand why there is so much hate on Boxberger. What is the difference between Boxberger and a guy like Alex White who was rumored to go inside the top 10 and ultimately went 15th to the Indians? I don't see the difference at all.

[Mario-Rijo]

I think he is referring to the fact that Boxberger was taken a bit too early, especially when there was a guy like Scheppers still on the board. If we could have gotten a talent like Scheppers at 43, then added the guys that we got a little bit later down the road, he would be much more happy. And I agree with that 100%.

Yeah pretty much what I meant HB, thanks. Although not necc. Scheppers but plenty other guys right there to take. Obviously I'd have had to lose one of the guys we got somewhere down the line but who really knows where. As far as them not being available later I don't know that to be true. This being a little different from the NFL and NBA drafts where teams can have vastly different views of players they very well could have had a guy drop a round. 2 rounds, maybe not but again not a big fan of Boxberger so if he was the guy I lost for picking up another so be it. I mean could we have done better than Sean Watson at the time? What about Tyler Cline, Scott Carroll? It may be premature to question these choices but so far their track record in reaching for arms early in drafts is mostly miss.

[jojo]

John Sickels always seems to like the Reds.

I think he's generally pretty fair and unbiased (at least he'll admit when a bias colors his projection).

Look how he graded Seattle's draft. The temptation might have been to give some grade inflation due to the proven record of the new guys running the Ms draft. I don't think he's guilty of pulling any punches on his assessment.

He's always a great read.

[11larkin11]

Quick question. If a team doesn't sign a sandwich pick, do they get compensation the next round. e.g. if we don't sign Boxberger, do we get a pick next year for it?

[princeton]

Quick question. If a team doesn't sign a sandwich pick, do they get compensation the next round. e.g. if we don't sign Boxberger, do we get a pick next year for it?

I found this:



Compensation for Failure to Sign High Draft Picks

Teams that fail to sign a first or second round pick will be compensated by receiving a virtually identical pick (plus one) in the following year's draft (ex., a team that fails to sign the No. 5 pick in 2006 receives the No. 6 pick in 2007). A team that fails to sign a second round pick gets virtually the identical pick the following season regardless of the round (for example, if Boston fails to sign pick #62, it will receive pick #62A (~63) in the next year's draft, regardless of whether pick #62A falls in the supplemental round, the second round, or the third round). A team that fails to sign a third-round pick receives a sandwich pick between the third and fourth rounds. None of these picks may be forfeited. Additionally, these compensation picks do not count as a pick when counting picks 1-15 in the first round that are protected from Type A compensation.



my take is yes, but failure to sign sandwich round selections isn't specifically mentioned.

[dougdirt]

BTW, Stewart pitches tomorrow at 7:15pm. You can listen live here (not likely to work until about 7:00 or 7:05 though) if you want and listen for some velocities being mentioned throughout the broadcast (assuming the gun is working in Tennessee). We know his slider is a plus pitch. We know he gets a ton of groundballs (rates pushing 60% this year).

[HokieRed]

A note on previous "stuff" guys taken number 1 by our organization: Howington, Sowers, Wagner, Gruler. Three projectable Number 1's and a high profile reliever (even thought of as a possible starter, as some will remember). No guarantees in the first round or anywhere else. I'm happy with Leake.

[princeton]

A note on previous "stuff" guys taken number 1 by our organization: Howington, Sowers, Wagner, Gruler. Three projectable Number 1's and a high profile reliever (even thought of as a possible starter, as some will remember). No guarantees in the first round or anywhere else. I'm happy with Leake.

you're incorrect on Wagner (RP only) and Sowers (not a stuff guy, not a number 1). Gruler/Bailey is probably more what you're thinking.

high school arms do get hurt. Bowden's team was particularly adept at finding the injuries. might have been better to have Costanza'd the first rounders and picked opposite to what they liked.