if we sell then who do we sell?

[*BaseClogger*]

What offensive power hitter w/nt want to play half of their games in GABP!!! Imagine the #'s you could put up here if you were a power hitter!!! Now if you said Petco Park I would agree, but not GABP!

Seriously?

Matt Holliday is going to get at least 100 million dollars as a free agent this offseason. The Reds are not going to be anywhere close to that in contract negotiations...

[KronoRed]

What offensive power hitter w/nt want to play half of their games in GABP!!! Imagine the #'s you could put up here if you were a power hitter!!! Now if you said Petco Park I would agree, but not GABP!

It's not about the numbers it's about the money, Boras will make sure Holliday hits the FA market and gets the most expensive deal possible.

[*BaseClogger*]

players waive their NTC all the time. to say 'there is no way we could trade Cordero because he has a NTC' is just plain wrong.

All the time? Jake Peavy disagrees.

He has to go to a contender, because those are the only teams interesting in adding 34 year-old relief pitchers with $24M left on their contract.

Cordero is only going to accept a trade to a team that offers him the closer role because lets face it, the 'save' as a stat category is the only reason he makes $12M a year. Most contending teams already have a closer.

And that assumes Cordero is even interested in winning. Based on the fact he chose the Reds, I'm thinking no...

[corkedbat]

I've said in other threads that I'd consider trading several veterans for kids that improve us now, but more importantly in the near future if possible. Holding on to Arroyo would not be a bad thing, especially if you believe we are contrenders this year (I don't).

The danger of not moving them is that neither will probably have the value on the market that they now have and ou run the risk of ending up with both in the roster in a couple of years in the place of better youngster simply because of moenyowed them. I don't give either away, but If I get offered an attractive young guy or two for either, I make the deal

If somone offers me anything of any future value for Phillips I jump on it before they come to their senses, but then, I've always said that he should've been moved a year ago (if not sooner) just to get him out of the cleanup spot. Even if they were to make a deal for Holiday, Dusty would still bat him sixth and leave Phillipsin thefour hole

I'm not talking about a firesale where you just move salary for what you can get. I want legitimate young talent im return to blend with Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez and the boys down on the farm.

For those that disagree withthis approach, take heart. Despite, my previous stated optomism that Walt will soon be making a mjor deal to stamp his mark on this team, his remarks of the past few days have lead me to believe that he will follow the half-arsed path of Dan0 & Krivs.

He has a salary figure he can live with and the team is with in 10 games of the wildcard, so he can tell the fans they are contenders and in it to win it. He'll avoid moving any of the older, higher-paid guys for youngsters to avoid causing those fans to scream bloody murder. At the same time, he won't deal for a big bat that might actually help them actually make a run, due to salary. Why add another #10M when you can just tell them that this team is a contender and its just a matter of waiting for WillyT returns to form? The most we see will probably be Arroyo for a couple of middling prospects.

[Rojo]

Agree. After we're out of it

Nice one, Vince Lombardi.

[redsfandan]

As much as I dislike his contract I don't think Cordero won't be moved this season and I doubt he'll be moved in the offseason because of that contract.
Here's a few closers that were signed last offseason with contract details.

Francisco Rodriguez rhp
3 years/$37M (2009-11), plus 2012 option
signed by NY Mets as a free agent 12/9/08
$2M signing bonus
09:$8.5M, 10:$11.5M, 11:$11.5M, 12:$17.5M option ($3.5M buyout)

2012 option becomes guaranteed with:
55 games finished in 2011, and
100 games finished in 2010-11, and
doctors declare Rodriguez healthy after 2011
Rodriguez receives $3.5M termination buyout if 2012 option does not become guaranteed

annual performance bonuses, 2009-11: $0.15M each for 50, 55 GF; $0.2M for 60 GF

2012 performance bonuses:
$0.3M each for 50, 55 GF; $0.4M for 60 GF
limited no-trade clause allowing Rodriguez to block deals to 10 clubs

Kerry Wood rhp
2 years/$20.5M (2009-10), plus 2011 option
signed by Cleveland as a free agent 12/13/08
09:$10M, 10:$10.5M, 11:$11M vesting option
2011 option guaranteed with 55 GF in 2009 or 2010 (becomes a club option if it does not vest)

Brian Fuentes lhp
2 years/$17.5M (2009-10), plus 2011 option
signed by Angels as a free agent 12/31/08
09:$8.5M, 10:$9M, 11:$9M vesting option
2011 option guaranteed with 55 GF in 2010
award bonuses

Trevor Hoffman rhp
1 year/$6M (2009)
signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 1/8/09
up to $1.5M in performance bonuses based on games finished

Compare those contracts to Cordero who is owed $24m over the next two years plus a $1m buyout for 2012.
Here is who is eligible for free agency after this season (with age in parenthesis):

Mike Gonzalez (32)
Trevor Hoffman (42)
J.J. Putz (33) - $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Rafael Soriano (30)
Jose Valverde (30)
Billy Wagner (38) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ryan Franklin (37) - $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout
Kevin Gregg (32)

None of those guys is in the same class as Rodriguez. So instead of a team trading for an expensive Cordero they could have one of these guys and quite possibly pay them ALOT less. Face it, we're probably stuck with one really bad contract until at least next summer before another team would consider taking it off our hands.:thumbdown

[PuffyPig]

I would concentrate on a package including Arroyo, Weathers, perhaps Chris Heisey who is having a big year at AA, and maybe one other prospect.

That's a strange package.

Arroyo and Weathers would have value, presumably, to a contender who was making a serious run at the playoffs.

Heisey would have a value to a rebuilding team, and would only be traded if we were making a serious run at a playoff spot.

Both groups won't be traded.

[Roy Tucker]

As much as I like the scrappiness of this years' patchwork Reds, I think at very very very best, they are a very marginal playoff team. Primarily because of their starters.

I think Jocketty needs to use all of his GM wisdom and mojo and make a good trade to recycle Harang (who is a very good MLB starter) and Arroyo (a good starter) to a contender at the trading deadline for good young arms. We've seen the boost this team has gotten from live arms like Cueto and Volquez. *That* is what will make a difference in this team into the future. I like to watch balls fly out of the park as much as the next guy, but guys that make pitches that miss bats is where its at.

[redsfandan]

d)Bronson Arroyo-yes he's solid, durable, and would be a welcome addition to any team down the stretch....say Boston!!!! but it would take solid prospects in return for his services!!!

Boston is the last team that needs a starting pitcher. Smoltz is ready to help and Buchholz is ready in AAA.

Selling off viable & productive parts of the big club aren't what I'm interested in. I'd rather see us sell from surplus to fill holes. And that surplus is in the minors.

If we're not a contender in July the teams that are in contention won't want minor league players. They'll want players that can help them NOW. As far as the rotation call me crazy but I really like the idea of Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, & Owings/Maloney/etc in 2011. That could be a really good rotation to keep together and we'd probably have less $ devoted to the rotation in 2011 than we do now. If we can unload Cordero's last year than we'd have even more $ to spend elsewhere.

...I don't deal starting pitchers. This staff has the potential to go the route of the Braves back when it was Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, Avery. ...would there be a better 3rd & 4th starter tandem in the league than Harang & Arroyo? I sure don't see it.

Again, I'll take Bailey & Leake at the #3 & #4 spots. I can see them matching Harang/Arroyo in production and at a much cheaper price.

...Reds trade-Yonder Alonso as a PTBNL, Josh Roenicke, Chris Dickerson, and Dallas Buck(AA)

...

Oakland trades- Matt Holliday and Michael Wuertz(RHRP) But Walt can nix the deal if we can't sign Holliday to long-term deal within 72 hours.

I'd rather have Alonso, Roenicke, Dickerson, & Buck. I think Holliday is overrated by some. He's a good player but $100m good? I'm skeptical. Playing in Colorado helped him. And as has been mentioned, Holliday WILL be a FA. Besides, we could have Votto, Stubbs, Heisey, etc up for the outfield and our biggest need (for 2010) is a ss. Thanks but no thanks to Holliday.

That's a strange package.

Arroyo and Weathers would have value, presumably, to a contender who was making a serious run at the playoffs.

Heisey would have a value to a rebuilding team, and would only be traded if we were making a serious run at a playoff spot.

Both groups won't be traded.

Why not? Arroyo/Weathers for prospects and Heisey for a prospect that plays a different position. I'm not saying I want Heisey dealt but we have outfield depth in the minors. We could use more depth at ss/c/p.

Fwiw, I'd be open to trades of Weathers, Hernandez, either Arroyo or Harang, Hairston, Gomes, & Gonzalez. (Nix intrigues me)
Weathers would only be on the books for a few months for any team that acquires him with a small buyout of 2010($0.4M buyout). Deal him to a contender so he can have a chance to retire on a team in the playoffs.

Rhodes is only owed $2m for next season. For that price I'd probably keep him unless a team made an offer I couldn't refuse.

Hernandez has to be available for the right price. Cueto wouldn't like it but the Mets might like that upgrade for the playoff chase. No harm in seeing what he'd bring.

Arroyo or Harang (I wouldn't deal both this year) would also interest the Mets who need pitching badly (among others) and would benefit from their pitcher friendly home park. I've thought for awhile that either pitcher would be dealt before their contracts run out after 2010 and forget about the 2011 options being picked up. We'll need that money for Volquez, Votto, Bruce, Cueto. The open spot in 2010 goes to Bailey, the 2011 open spot to Leake. They won't bring a LaPorta but they should be able to net something.

[flyer85]

Harang/Arroyo

[Jpup]

Arroyo, Phillips, Gonzalez, Tavares, Hernandez, Rhodes, Weathers, Hairston, & Gomes would all be available if someone was interested. Sad to say, but I think Rhodes would be the easiest to trade and your not going to get much for any of the others. I would trade Volquez or Alonso in the right deal.

[Kc61]

That's a strange package.

Arroyo and Weathers would have value, presumably, to a contender who was making a serious run at the playoffs.

Heisey would have a value to a rebuilding team, and would only be traded if we were making a serious run at a playoff spot.

Both groups won't be traded.

Not trading groups, trading players.

If the Reds want a highly rated prospect or two, the other team might want a sweetener beyond Arroyo and Weathers. They might want a prospect in the deal as well.

Heisey is having a great year. His value is very high now. He plays the same position as Stubbs. He's a perfect guy to trade if the return is high.

So, hypothetically, let's say the Reds target a top shortstop prospect who is major league ready along with a solid pitching prospect. The other team wants more than Arroyo and Weathers. You can put Heisey in that deal.

[flyer85]

He plays the same position as Stubbs. He's a perfect guy to trade if the return is high.

the guy to trade is the player who has value but is less likely to succeed at the ML level. That may be Heisey but looking at the numbers there is a lot more to like about Heisey than there is Stubbs. These kind of decisions are the ones that Braves have always been so good at. They have done a tremendous job of evaluating their own prospects and knowing which ones should be dealt. The Reds for the longest time have not had enough prospects to have to make these kind of decisions.

With Frazier moving to LF and Bruce in RF making the correct choice about CF is imperative.

[Kc61]

the guy to trade is the player who has value but is less likely to succeed at the ML level. That may be Heisey but looking at the numbers there is a lot more to like about Heisey than there is Stubbs. These kind of decisions are the ones that Braves have always been so good at. They have done a tremendous job of evaluating their own prospects and knowing which ones should be dealt. The Reds for the longest time have not had enough prospects to have to make these kind of decisions.

With Frazier moving to LF and Bruce in RF making the correct choice about CF is imperative.

I didn't mean to turn this into Heisey versus Stubbs. If the Reds don't like Stubbs as much, then he is the one to trade. Personally, I'd move Heisey but I'd trust the Reds' scouts to make that decision.

Point is that one of the two young centerfielders is good trade bait and, since they both are having excellent years, it is a good time to make the move. For the same reason, there are several Reds prospects I would not move right now -- their season numbers don't reflect their potential value.

[flyer85]

but I'd trust the Reds' scouts to make that decision.

not sure that I do.

I do agree that now is the time to do something. The time not to do something is after is bringing a player to the majors and their shortcomings made obvious for all to see(which is what I expect from the Reds).