Thursday 6/18/09 minor league updates

[fearofpopvol1]

I think that's mostly leftover feelings of distaste that the Reds used a 2nd round pick for a relief pitcher.

I would argue that any player selected in any round that makes it to the major leagues that contributes positive numbers to the team is a sound pick.

I could maybe see the beef if he was a first round pick...but as a 2nd rounder or higher? Not so much.

I think it's severely underestimated the amount of players that don't ever reach the bigs or contribute anything of value to teams...in all rounds.

[GOYA]

Birmingham came through with 2 in the bottom of the 9th to beat Huntsville 5-4. Carolina is a half game back with full head of steam.

[Benihana]

I would argue that any player selected in any round that makes it to the major leagues that contributes positive numbers to the team is a sound pick.

I could maybe see the beef if he was a first round pick...but as a 2nd rounder or higher? Not so much.

I think it's severely underestimated the amount of players that don't ever reach the bigs or contribute anything of value to teams...in all rounds.

Sound? Maybe.

But exciting or even better than status quo? Nope.

A team like the Reds needs to produce average to above average major leaguers on a good amount (more than the league average) of their top 50 selections* if they ever want be more than a .500 team. Other teams can afford to whiff (or even bunt as I liken drafting a relief pitcher in the Top 50) on their top selections, but the Reds can't- at least, not at a league average pace.

Right now, Sean Watson projects to be neither. While he has had some success this year in his second season in AA, he'll be lucky if he ever spends a full season on a big league roster. If he does, it will most likely not be as a closer or even a set-up man. That is not a sound Top 50 draft pick IMO, at least not for a small-market team that needs those picks to deliver.

I'm hoping Boxberger fares significantly better.


*Watson was drafted 52nd overall

[RedlegJake]

If you're a fan of the Peter Principle it seems LeCure and Jukich, who looked fairly good in AA (as in possible EOR starters) have reached that magic level of incompetence at AAA. I hope time and perhaps another year help but it sure looks like they've plateaued short of the mark as prospects.

[RedlegJake]

A team like the Reds needs to produce average to above average major leaguers on a good amount (more than the league average) of their top 50 selections if they ever want be more than a .500 team.

Other teams can afford to whiff (or even bunt as I liken drafting a relief pitcher in the Top 50) on their top selections, but the Reds can't- at least, not at a league average pace.

I agree with #1 but disagree with #2. EVERY team whiffes on their top selections a whole lot more than they hit. To me the importance isn't how well your top guys turn out but how well the overall draft turns out. That means getting an impact player (All Star caliber) every couple years and better than average numbers of solid major league players regardless whether that is starters or good competent utility men. Even utility guys help a lot because you can save a bundle if you're paying league minimum for those guys out of your system rather than 2-4 mill a year for veteran filler.
Getting that superstar top pick is almost pure luck. When it comes to the top picks almost everyone is in the same boat. Years where you punt like Sowers are the kind of picks the Reds can't afford. One of the reasons I like the Leake pick at the top is because he has good upside but is a safer bet than higher upside pitchers like Scheppers or Crow.

[traderumor]

I just see a post in Sun Deck that Yonder broker his hand in last night's game. He was still hitting in the 12th. Anyone?

[dougdirt]

I just see a post in Sun Deck that Yonder broker his hand in last night's game. He was still hitting in the 12th. Anyone?

He even played for 2 at bats in game 2. My guess is, something happened in game 2.

[fearofpopvol1]

Sound? Maybe.

But exciting or even better than status quo? Nope.

A team like the Reds needs to produce average to above average major leaguers on a good amount (more than the league average) of their top 50 selections* if they ever want be more than a .500 team. Other teams can afford to whiff (or even bunt as I liken drafting a relief pitcher in the Top 50) on their top selections, but the Reds can't- at least, not at a league average pace.

Right now, Sean Watson projects to be neither. While he has had some success this year in his second season in AA, he'll be lucky if he ever spends a full season on a big league roster. If he does, it will most likely not be as a closer or even a set-up man. That is not a sound Top 50 draft pick IMO, at least not for a small-market team that needs those picks to deliver.

I'm hoping Boxberger fares significantly better.


*Watson was drafted 52nd overall

I agree with the premise that the Reds shouldn't intentionally try to draft relievers in the 1st or 2nd rounds. With that said, if they do and if they make it to the Show...I think it's hard to complain too much.

And your last statement...is just that...a "projection." There's no real way of knowing what will happens until it actually does. Until he starts to falter, I think it's hard really say much of anything.

[Benihana]

And your last statement...is just that...a "projection." There's no real way of knowing what will happens until it actually does. Until he starts to falter, I think it's hard really say much of anything.

Of course it is, but isn't that the point of the Minor League Forum? To discuss the play of minor leaguers and how they project to the major league level?

Consider some context:

In four minor league season, Watson has an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.29- not exactly earth-shattering numbers for a minor-league reliever who was drafted in the 50th round let alone drafted in the first 52 picks.

As a comparison, Robert Manuel, a college pitcher who went undrafted and who many believe still not to be a prospect has delivered a 2.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with virtually the same K rate over the same time period as Watson. And he's now delivered a 1.84 ERA over almost 40 innings in AAA, a full level ahead of where Watson is sporting an ERA almost two runs higher in his best season yet.

[fearofpopvol1]

Of course it is, but isn't that the point of the Minor League Forum? To discuss the play of minor leaguers and how they project to the major league level?

Consider some context:

In four minor league season, Watson has an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.29- not exactly earth-shattering numbers for a minor-league reliever who was drafted in the 50th round let alone drafted in the first 52 picks.

As a comparison, Robert Manuel, a college pitcher who went undrafted and who many believe still not to be a prospect has delivered a 2.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with virtually the same K rate over the same time period as Watson. And he's now delivered a 1.84 ERA over almost 40 innings in AAA, a full level ahead of where Watson is sporting an ERA almost two runs higher in his best season yet.

I understand all that, but I think you're writing off Watson prematurely. If he continues to thrive over the rest of this season (which may or may not happen), then he could be useful at the major league level.

[dougdirt]

Of course it is, but isn't that the point of the Minor League Forum? To discuss the play of minor leaguers and how they project to the major league level?

Consider some context:

In four minor league season, Watson has an ERA of 3.76 and a WHIP of 1.29- not exactly earth-shattering numbers for a minor-league reliever who was drafted in the 50th round let alone drafted in the first 52 picks.

As a comparison, Robert Manuel, a college pitcher who went undrafted and who many believe still not to be a prospect has delivered a 2.93 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with virtually the same K rate over the same time period as Watson. And he's now delivered a 1.84 ERA over almost 40 innings in AAA, a full level ahead of where Watson is sporting an ERA almost two runs higher in his best season yet.

I would argue that any 50th round pick that has made it to AA is earth shattering in itself, much less kept an ERA under 4 and a WHIP under 1.40. Still, what Watson has done has little to do with what he may do. His numbers aren't worth a whole lot because well, he is in the minors and working to improve things. Numbers get overstated for minor leaguers at times. They are what they are, but they don't always project going forward in a good or bad way because one little tweak here or there can dramatically change the career of a player. Watson has put up decent numbers through the minors. They haven't been great, but for the most part, they haven't been bad either. Those numbers though don't tell us anything about his future as a major leaguer (if he gets there) though. They tell us what he did as a minor leaguer at that specific point in time.

[Benihana]

I would argue that any 50th round pick that has made it to AA is earth shattering in itself

So you're saying Robert Manuel is earth-shattering? He's worse than a 50th round pick- he went undrafted.

Still, what Watson has done has little to do with what he may do. His numbers aren't worth a whole lot because well, he is in the minors and working to improve things. They are what they are, but they don't always project going forward in a good or bad way because one little tweak here or there can dramatically change the career of a player...Those numbers though don't tell us anything about his future as a major leaguer (if he gets there) though. They tell us what he did as a minor leaguer at that specific point in time.

Um, then what's the point of ever following the minor leagues?

I'm not saying numbers in the minors are everything- they certainly aren't. There is certainly something to scouting and projection. But numbers (particularly in the higher minors) do tell an important part of the story, especially when they have never been extraordinary at any level.

[dougdirt]

So you're saying Robert Manuel is earth-shattering? He's worse than a 50th round pick- he went undrafted.

It is. The number of guys who go undrafted but sign to play in the minors are incredibly high. The number of guys who reach AAA of that group is incredibly low. So yeah, the fact that Manuel has reached AAA, much less done very well while doing so is pretty incredible.

Um, then what's the point of ever following the minor leagues?

I'm not saying numbers in the minors are everything- they certainly aren't. There is certainly something to scouting and projection. But numbers (particularly in the higher minors) do tell an important part of the story, especially when they have never been extraordinary at any level.

We all follow the minor leagues for different reasons, but the minor leagues are more for learning and improving than they are for having good stats. What good does it do player X to put up good stats if he is doing it in a way that isn't going to make him a good major leaguer? It doesn't do them much good. Its nice when guys can learn and put up good numbers at the same time, but thats not always the case. Especially with pitchers, something as simple as the way a coach says something to you may be the thing that takes you from good arm/no clue how to use it to good arm/good pitcher. Is that whats going on with Watson? I have no idea. But looking at stats, particularly ones that haven't come recently, doesn't tell me much at all about a player because minor leaguers, ones at a reasonable age, can change very quickly.

[Benihana]

We all follow the minor leagues for different reasons, but the minor leagues are more for learning and improving than they are for having good stats. What good does it do player X to put up good stats if he is doing it in a way that isn't going to make him a good major leaguer? It doesn't do them much good. Its nice when guys can learn and put up good numbers at the same time, but thats not always the case. Especially with pitchers, something as simple as the way a coach says something to you may be the thing that takes you from good arm/no clue how to use it to good arm/good pitcher. Is that whats going on with Watson? I have no idea. But looking at stats, particularly ones that haven't come recently, doesn't tell me much at all about a player because minor leaguers, ones at a reasonable age, can change very quickly.

Sure, they can change at the flip of a switch. But in the interest of probability, a four-year minor league track record of mediocrity, especially when you're talking about a relief pitcher from a big-time college program, is more of an indication of future success than you seem to be implying.

If Leake or Boxberger is a reliever in AA four years from now with a career ERA of 3.76, I'll be disappointed with the pick, period.