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Thread: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

  1. #16
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    My 1st thought is tough to help a couple guys who seem to have found a way to stay right smack in the middle of the plate whenever they are not clearly outside it. Those guys will likely have a higher than normal LD% is my assumption. Tough to stop a bullet LD over the IF's heads and dropping before it reaches the OF. 2 other thoughts on Homer, hitters seem to hit the ball right back up the gut on him more than any other guy we have and with authority. Tough to defend that. And the other would be that it's such a small sample size for Homer that we can't really make anything of it. Just seems to me when I think of all the times Homer has pitched I see that hard 2 hopper right back up the middle time and again.
    Yeah, I agree about the sample size. The guy on the frowning side of the D with a large enough sample size is Bronson. But, his FIP is almost the same as his ERA so I don't think he's being hurt too badly by the D.

    That does go to your point because when he's off, aside from Owing, I think he's the starter that gets hit the hardest.
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  3. #17
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Rhodes and Cueto seem to have been "picked up" by the defense most often while Homer Bailey and Jared Burton have been "let down."
    The defense completely screwed Paul Janish!
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  4. #18
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    The defense completely screwed Paul Janish!
    Yeah there is some era our staff will never get back.
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  5. #19
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Sure, we can try it.

    Defensively, Cincinnati seems to have employed the Theo Epstein Approach, in that he's looking for at least average players at as many positions as possible. Too, he has primarily focused on OF defense.

    In the offseason, I did some research and discovered most playoff teams had excellent defensive OFs (or at least above average OF D). Jocketty's MO as a GM is to focus on outfield leather and assume decent offensive production while focusing on IF bats with decent gloves. This season all three OF spots grade out of above average. For all the teeth gnashing about Taveras' bat, his glove ranks as just above league average and that's with a week long sulk wherein he's really struggled out there. Bruce has been great since the first couple of weeks and the LF quartet has been downright awe-inspiring. (The difference between 08's LF D and 09's LF D is staggering.)

    This worked quite well until Votto got.. whatever Votto got.

    Gonzalez has been solidly above average, especially considering how poorly Reds' SS performed last season. Phillips and Votto looked great. 3B remained a problem, espcially with Hairston. (In fact, Hairston is the one guy who's really struggled with the leather, at both 2b and the hot corner, aside from Encarnacion.)

    Overall, Jocketty's plan (scouts mixed with a few numbers) has worked wonders.

    Why are they struggling to play D behind specific pitchers? Perhaps because they've got two guys playing out of position (Herandez and Hairston) and small sample size issues.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  6. #20
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by RichRed View Post
    The defense completely screwed Paul Janish!
    Now he'll get hosed in arbitration!
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #21
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Rhodes and Cueto seem to have been "picked up" by the defense most often while Homer Bailey and Jared Burton have been "let down.
    Cueto is likely due for a correction in both his LOB% and HR/FB rates and I'm hoping we don't have to wade through "what is wrong with Cueto" threads during the second half of the season unless he actually does pitch worse (i.e. he could easily pitch similarly and have the results be worse).

    I also think that now is the time to sell on Rhodes too...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #22
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Why are they struggling to play D behind specific pitchers? Perhaps because they've got two guys playing out of position (Herandez and Hairston) and small sample size issues.
    I think M-R's post was on point about this. Guys the D can't help are guys who couldn't hit the corners, albeit in very small sample sizes. Otherwise, the defense is generally very helpful this year.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  9. #23
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Cueto is likely due for a correction in both his LOB% and HR/FB rates and I'm hoping we don't have to wade through "what is wrong with Cueto" threads during the second half of the season unless he actually does pitch worse (i.e. he could easily pitch similarly and have the results be worse).
    I can dig it. His K-rate seems down too. I guess those two things could be slightly related because if he's not striking them out, then the defense has to catch the ball.

    I also think that now is the time to sell on Rhodes too...
    Interesting ramifications. Would that indicate they're punting this season? Who would replace him?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  10. #24
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    It wouldn't indicate punting the season at all and there are interesting arms that could replace him, but the casual fan would complain (as would sports' radio), so it likely won't happen.

    Though I agree selling high on Rhodes would be a good idea.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  11. #25
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Cueto is likely due for a correction in both his LOB% and HR/FB rates and I'm hoping we don't have to wade through "what is wrong with Cueto" threads during the second half of the season unless he actually does pitch worse (i.e. he could easily pitch similarly and have the results be worse).

    I also think that now is the time to sell on Rhodes too...
    I'm not real sure that Rhodes, as a 40 year-old reliever, is going to get the kind of return that makes taking his production out of our pen worthwhile, unless he's a pot sweetener. Even then, seems like so much churning to me.

  12. #26
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I'm not real sure that Rhodes, as a 40 year-old reliever, is going to get the kind of return that makes taking his production out of our pen worthwhile, unless he's a pot sweetener. Even then, seems like so much churning to me.
    It depends on how much a team that's "close" needs bullpen help.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #27
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Interesting ramifications. Would that indicate they're punting this season? Who would replace him?
    I meant from the standpoint that he's likely to give up more runs going forward.

    The Reds should be adding production not subtracting it so no to the punt IMHO.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #28
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    It depends on how much a team that's "close" needs bullpen help.
    The demand for quality back end relief help is at an all time high right now. I think it was Rosenthal who said recently that the Rockies could probably get more for Huston Street right now than Oakland could get for Matt Holliday. That said I disagree that trading Arthur wouldn't indicate a punting unless it immediately improved us elsewhere and I doubt a trade like that would happen.
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  15. #29
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post

    I also think that now is the time to sell on Rhodes too...
    With Viola dealing in AAA,

    3.21ERA 28.0IP 15H 18BB 32K 1.18WHIP

    Trading Rhodes makes sense. The Pirates got Brian Giles for a hot lefty reliever. Teams always need good lefty relievers.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #30
    Mr.Redlegs is my homeboy Eric_the_Red's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs: Letting others do the work

    I don't think selling high on Rhodes and selling low on Rhodes would net drastically different returns. "If it ain't broke..."


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