Statistical Analysis with regards to lineups has always intrigued me, so I began to think about the impact that taking a bat like Joey Votto's out of the lineup has on a lineup such as the Reds'. Using Baseball Musings' Lineup Tool and yesterday's lineup, I inserted Votto into the lineup. First of all, the lineup that the Reds ran out on the field with yesterday:
WT
Hairston
Phillips
Gomes
Hernandez
Bruce
Hanigan
Rosales
Harang
This lineup will produce (on average) 4.067 runs/game.
Next I introduced Votto into the lineup, forcing Hernandez out and leaving Hanigan to catch. Using this lineup:
WT
Hairston
Votto
Phillips
Gomes
Bruce
Hanigan
Rosales
Harang
The Reds would average 4.680 runs/game. Taking this same idea and adding EE to the lineup with his career averages boosts the lineup up to a theoretical 4.872 runs/game.
This is nearly a full run per game difference in offense. This may not sound like much, but the difference between the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup (4.97 R/G) and the Reds lineup (4.21 R/G) is about the same difference between the Votto/Votto-less lineups above. If you look back at our recent schedule and have been watching recent games, you know the impact that a single run per game can have. Once Votto and/or EE return I expect this offense to be much more potent; there is NO WAY that I am giving up on this team yet.
