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Thread: Prospects for Arroyo...

  1. #46
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Mario Rijo,
    I guess the biggest knock with DeJesus is that he has no power and scouts don't really see it showing up to being even average. That also suggests the walks are going to dry up some too leaving him as mostly a average based hitter with solid defense. Not anything wrong with that type of guy, but I don't see it as an upgrade to a guy like Cozart at all.
    Well that's fair I supppose but how they can say that with anything resembling accuracy I'll never know. I mean what are they basing that off of there doesn't seem to be any indication that he can't offset a lack of raw strength with his other skills? I mean I guess I could see it if he were a small guy but he's not at 5'11" 182 lbs. at age 21. Perhaps he does have bat speed issues otherwise I don't get it. All I know is that he slugged .423 (although a bit BA driven) at age 21 in AA over 560 PA's, which isn't setting the world on fire but not bad either. As far as his BB's drying up I understand their reasoning somewhat but he also hit .324 and his BB's well above average. Granted those #'s are not in line with his previous seaons however he is just 21 and his previous #'s show progression to this point.

    Let me just say I understand your stance but I am choosing to ignore their projections until I see more from him. I think he has enough contact ability, discipline and speed to be an average to slightly above average starting SS offensively. And I think they might be shortchanging his pop, certainly the raw power may not be there in great excess but the rest of his skills could offset that IMO. Of course he's injured currently which probably makes my hypothetical offer for him moot anyway.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Well that's fair I supppose but how they can say that with anything resembling accuracy I'll never know. I mean what are they basing that off of there doesn't seem to be any indication that he can't offset a lack of raw strength with his other skills? I mean I guess I could see it if he were a small guy but he's not at 5'11" 182 lbs. at age 21. Perhaps he does have bat speed issues otherwise I don't get it. All I know is that he slugged .423 (although a bit BA driven) at age 21 in AA over 560 PA's, which isn't setting the world on fire but not bad either. As far as his BB's drying up I understand their reasoning somewhat but he also hit .324 and his BB's well above average. Granted those #'s are not in line with his previous seaons however he is just 21 and his previous #'s show progression to this point.
    There is a lot that goes into it, but its probably coupled with his swing plane, bat speed, size and a few other things. As for his SLG, I don't put much into the overall number, I care more about his IsoP (SLG-AVG) and its just around .100. Thats really, really low. Pitchers in the majors won't be worried about throwing him strikes because whats he going to do at worst, hit a double? Unless he bats before the pitcher, I doubt he will walk 50+ times in a season because pitchers simply don't have to fear him doing a ton of damage.

  4. #48
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    There is a lot that goes into it, but its probably coupled with his swing plane, bat speed, size and a few other things. As for his SLG, I don't put much into the overall number, I care more about his IsoP (SLG-AVG) and its just around .100. Thats really, really low. Pitchers in the majors won't be worried about throwing him strikes because whats he going to do at worst, hit a double? Unless he bats before the pitcher, I doubt he will walk 50+ times in a season because pitchers simply don't have to fear him doing a ton of damage.
    The reason I disagree is that in a nutshell he isn't a finished product and he seems to have shown enough in the way of contact to hit for average. If he can do that the walks won't go anywhere. Certainly I understand the ramifications his lack of power will play into both his BA and BB's but plenty of guys who have almost no power whatsoever have managed to hit for avg. quite well. I think he can be solid. Now a guy like Elvis Andrus to me is different because he never showed much in the way of contact ability on top of just ok discipline and no pop.

    I'm not disagreeing with you just feel like he might be undervalued by the scouting community. Chances are I'll probably be wrong but I am not yet ready to concede.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Taylor may be their "best" chip, but saying he is nearly untouchable is definitely not stupid.
    Yes it is.

    From Jayson Stark's latest column posted about an hour ago:

    The Phillies have given indications that they'd part with Michael Taylor and/or Jason Donald in a deal for an impact starter.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...e=MLBHeadlines

    Here's more if you want it:

    Even before they imploded on their last homestand, the Phillies were one of the most aggressive teams out there in hunting for pitching. And interestingly, clubs that have asked them about some of their most ballyhooed prospects, such as outfielder Michael Taylor and infielder Jason Donald, have gotten indications the Phillies would trade either, or both, for an impact starter. (Don't ask who, but that's another story.)

    "They know they have to move somebody big to get what they want," said an official of one team they talked to. "And I think they're willing to do that."

    The six young players the Phillies wouldn't listen on, the same official said: outfielder Dominic Brown, catcher Lou Marson, and pitchers Kyle Drabek, Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo.

    Meanwhile, we're hearing the Phillies have knocked Pittsburgh's Ian Snell and Arizona's Doug Davis off their shopping list.

    • Shoes to Phil: One scout's review of the two rookie left-handers in the Phillies' rotation: J.A. Happ and Bastardo: "Both of those guys are guys I'd like to have. But here's the problem: When you're built for today, you can't afford the growing pains. And that team is built to win today. So they need another starter."
    Bronson Arroyo for Michael Taylor and either Jason Donald or J.A. Happ. Done and done!
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-25-2009 at 05:27 PM.
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  6. #50
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Is Arroyo considered an impact starter? Impact to me means a #1 or #2 type, which is not Bronson.

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Is Arroyo considered an impact starter? Impact to me means a #1 or #2 type, which is not Bronson.
    In the current market he probably is, although not if he keeps laying eggs like last night.
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    When Justin Lehr came back to the Reds, where did he come from? I ask because his stats--current ones--are now showing on the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs (Phillies AAA) stat sheet. He's not on Louisville roster but isn't on Lehigh Valley either. But is something going on?

  9. #53
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    When Justin Lehr came back to the Reds, where did he come from? I ask because his stats--current ones--are now showing on the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs (Phillies AAA) stat sheet. He's not on Louisville roster but isn't on Lehigh Valley either. But is something going on?
    The Reds bought him from the Phillies.

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Yes it is.

    From Jayson Stark's latest column posted about an hour ago:

    The Phillies have given indications that they'd part with Michael Taylor and/or Jason Donald in a deal for an impact starter.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...e=MLBHeadlines

    Here's more if you want it:



    Bronson Arroyo for Michael Taylor and either Jason Donald or J.A. Happ. Done and done!
    For a return like that I would be fine to part with Harang or Arroyo. Offer Arroyo and some mid level guy up first but if that doesn't get it done see if Harang can swing something.

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    The Reds bought him from the Phillies.
    Thanks, answers that. I thought he was still overseas.

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by Schmidty623 View Post
    For a return like that I would be fine to part with Harang or Arroyo. Offer Arroyo and some mid level guy up first but if that doesn't get it done see if Harang can swing something.
    I wouldn't deal Harang for Taylor and Happ.
    I would, however, deal Arroyo and their choice of Francisco/Heisey/Maloney.

    Bailey replaces Arroyo as your fourth starter, and Happ becomes your fifth starter, sending Owings to the pen once Volquez returns. Nix and Gomes finish the year in a platoon, but Michael Taylor solves your LF quandary for 2010 and beyond:

    2010 (Alonso, Stewart & Wood start in Louisville)

    Stubbs/Dickerson CF
    Phillips 2B
    Votto 1B
    Taylor LF
    Bruce RF
    Encarnacion/Frazier 3B
    Hanigan C
    Valaika/Janish/Cozart? SS

    SP1 Cueto R
    SP2 Harang R
    SP3 Volquez R
    SP4 Bailey R
    SP5 Happ L

    RL Owings R
    RL Roenicke/Fisher R
    RL Bray/Viola L
    RL Herrera L
    RL Burton R
    CL Cordero R

    Last edited by Benihana; 06-26-2009 at 11:57 AM.
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Yhe Reds really need to be shrewd and get the next several months right. I like a lot of our younger pieces, but still think we could use a couple of pieces (a RH bat in LF and a SS would be my choices, maybe a 3B and any solid arms are always welcomed).

    Unlike some of the past few years, the Reds may have several veterans and prospects that they can turn into something useful. I love Harang and Arroyo, but htis franchise cannot afford to get caught in a year or two. with 1/3 of their payroll tied up in two starters, with younger better options, left out of the rotation becasue of contracts. It won't be easy and there's definitely risks, but that's the price of playing with the big boys. At least on from among Aaron & Bronson must go if they can get a solid return. Phillips and Encarnacion would be gone by the start of ST 2010 too, unless I was sure Baker would not bat Phillips any higher than sixth in the lineup.

    If Arroyo can be dealt for Michael Taylor, I'll drive he and his guitar to Philly myself.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 06-26-2009 at 01:13 PM.

  14. #58
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Thanks, answers that. I thought he was still overseas.
    Lehr is the guy who taught Homer Bailey the splitter, so the trade may have already paid off.

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Lehr is the guy who taught Homer Bailey the splitter, so the trade may have already paid off.

    Or if it wrecks Homer's arm, we may wish the Phils had kept Lehr.

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    Re: Prospects for Arroyo...

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Or if it wrecks Homer's arm, we may wish the Phils had kept Lehr.
    No regrets- I'm not sure he was going to be much in Cincy without the splitter.
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