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Thread: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

  1. #46
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Where will Fleury be next year? Top college catcher, fourth rounder; he's at Billings and, last time I looked, struggling mightily. UNC's catcher from last year, Fedorowicz, high draft of the RedSox last year, is somebody I watch at High A in the Carolina league; last time I noticed his OPS was below .600. Just from a rough check of the Sarasota roster, looked to me like the median age for our FSL pitchers is about 25. Wouldn't surprise me if a very ordinary 25 year old pitcher could fool the s--- out of a kid two years out of high school baseball just learning to use a wooden bat--a pitcher that, with another year of familiarity, he'll absolutely kill. In short, I think it might be said that Mes (and I'll add I was no fan of the draft pick, nor of Krivsky's drafts generally) is more than one level higher than he might be, that all the sample sizes are far too small at this point to mean much of anything, that if he's been promoted much faster than Frazier it might be because somebody besides just Wayne sees something very impressive in the kid, and that really about the only thing for us to keep an eye on at this point is whether he's improving.

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  3. #47
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Your scenario dies here.

    If Mesoraco were to re-enter the 2010 draft, he wouldn't go in the Top 5 rounds.
    Ouch, but that wasn't the point of my scenario. I was just pointing out that had he gone to college and then drafted in 2010, he would be just starting out at or below the level he is at now.

    Say he is the all-world catcher out of college and he's taken top 10 in the 2010 draft. He would be placed in Dayton or Sarasota, after he signed, and if he put up a .700-ish OPS he wouldn't automatically be considered a bust. If he put up .800 or more, he'd be considered on his way.

    Mesoraco could still do that by 2010. I don't consider him a slam dunk prospect, but I'm not writing him off yet either.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 07-31-2009 at 12:11 PM.

  4. #48
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    All this should be put to rest next year. He will (hopefully) repeat High A, and it will be put up or shut up time in terms of his ability to hit (not to mention his defense.)

    Of course catchers have a longer development cycle, and I'm not expecting him to fast-track it to the big leagues next year, but one more year of this sub-.750 OPS and I think we'll know what to call it.

    Again, not saying he has no hope or zero future. Just saying relative to where he was drafted, he is/will be a colossal disappointment.
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    I highly doubt he would be this bad at a college level with an aluminum bat. That is entirely pessimistic guessing on your part
    No, it's actually based partially on his performance to date. Stating that he'd be doing well would be entirely optimistic guessing on your part - essentially that he'd be doing something totally unlike what he's done to date in pro ball.

    FWIW, if anyone here is asserting that he should have gone to college, I agree.
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Say he is the all-world catcher out of college and he's taken top 10 in the 2010 draft. He would be placed in Dayton or Sarasota, after he signed, and if he put up a .700-ish OPS he wouldn't automatically be considered a bust. If he put up .800 or more, he'd be considered on his way.

    Mesoraco could still do that by 2010. I don't consider him a slam dunk prospect, but I'm not writing him off yet either.
    Again, you are assuming something in your hypothetical scenarios that just doesn't hold. If Mesoraco demonstrated a skill set in the last 2+ years in the organization that could convince me that he'd have a chance at being an "all-world catcher out of college" or a "high draft pick in 2010" then I'd buy your argument. He just hasn't- not since the day he was drafted.

    In your scenario, the fact that Mesoraco has sucked for two years prior to this "hypothetical 2010 draft" cannot be ignored in evaluating his performance going forward.
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  7. #51
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    FWIW, if anyone here is asserting that he should have gone to college, I agree.
    I don't know that I do. If the point is that he was pyrite from the get-go after putting up huge numbers in a boondocks Pennsylvania high school league, I'm not sure what college would have done for him.

    From a developmental standpoint, going to college isn't that different than playing in the Rookie Leagues. In fact, you could argue that the latter is more helpful, as it teaches you to hit with a wood bat. And you might also benefit from the professional instruction.

    I can't imagine going to college would have improved his draft status at all, and as a result, he'd be a whole lot poorer financially for having done so.

    However if you are arguing that he should have gone to college because his future career is not as a major league baseball player, you may be on to something.
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Where will Fleury be next year? Top college catcher, fourth rounder; he's at Billings and, last time I looked, struggling mightily. UNC's catcher from last year, Fedorowicz, high draft of the RedSox last year, is somebody I watch at High A in the Carolina league; last time I noticed his OPS was below .600. Just from a rough check of the Sarasota roster, looked to me like the median age for our FSL pitchers is about 25. Wouldn't surprise me if a very ordinary 25 year old pitcher could fool the s--- out of a kid two years out of high school baseball just learning to use a wooden bat--a pitcher that, with another year of familiarity, he'll absolutely kill. In short, I think it might be said that Mes (and I'll add I was no fan of the draft pick, nor of Krivsky's drafts generally) is more than one level higher than he might be, that all the sample sizes are far too small at this point to mean much of anything, that if he's been promoted much faster than Frazier it might be because somebody besides just Wayne sees something very impressive in the kid, and that really about the only thing for us to keep an eye on at this point is whether he's improving.
    Top college catcher? He was a fourth round pick. That's a far cry from the #15 pick overall.

    Top college catchers are guys like Buster Posey and Matt Weiters. Where will they be next year?
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  9. #53
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Again, you are assuming something in your hypothetical scenarios that just doesn't hold. If Mesoraco demonstrated a skill set in the last 2+ years in the organization that could convince me that he'd have a chance at being an "all-world catcher out of college" or a "high draft pick in 2010" then I'd buy your argument. He just hasn't- not since the day he was drafted.

    In your scenario, the fact that Mesoraco has sucked for two years prior to this "hypothetical 2010 draft" cannot be ignored in evaluating his performance going forward.
    And AGAIN, you are missing my point. I wasn't saying he'd be a top college catcher had he gone to college. My point was that ANY top college catcher starts out at A (where he is) or Low A.

    My point is that he is playing at a level that is right at or above where he'd be starting out in 2010, IF he came out of college. To speculate whether the kid would be a stud in college is pure conjecture and nobody really knows for sure. Some guys go crazy with aluminum and can't hit wood. I do think he's demonstrated decent power for a kid coming out of HS. In his first 600+ PA's, he's hit 17 HR's at a level higher than he's be playing in college. Personally, if you put a gun to my head, I'd bet he would do fine in college and by year three (2010) would be a top 5 round pick.

    I'm not sure we're in much disagreement here, other than I think there is still hope. I'm not arguing that the kid has been great to this point. I have been disappointed as well and was never in favor of the pick. But it is what it is now, and I was just trying to see some glimmer of hope.

  10. #54
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    I'm not sure we're in much disagreement here, other than I think there is still hope. I'm not arguing that the kid has been great to this point. I have been disappointed as well and was never in favor of the pick. But it is what it is now, and I was just trying to see some glimmer of hope.
    I agree, I hope he can turn into a serviceable big leaguer. But I highly doubt he'll ever live up to his status as a Top 15 pick, and therefore by definition I do think he'll be a bust.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-31-2009 at 12:58 PM.
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Any pick that makes the majors is a good pick, regardless of where they were picked. Except perhaps the top five in each draft.

    That's where baseball's draft is different than other sports.
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  12. #56
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    C and SS are both blackholes in this org. and there is no evidence that anything is changing anytime soon. But, we do have a Hanigan/Tatum tandem going for us.

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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    C and SS are both blackholes in this org. and there is no evidence that anything is changing anytime soon. But, we do have a Hanigan/Tatum tandem going for us.
    Cozart's had a semi-Denorfian bounce back after his initial struggles in pro ball, which were mighty. I don't know that he profiles as a full-time SS, but he looks to be better than Janish, which could make him a reasonable utility IF.
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Top college catcher? He was a fourth round pick. That's a far cry from the #15 pick overall.

    Top college catchers are guys like Buster Posey and Matt Weiters. Where will they be next year?

    Note I said above that I thought Mes was overdrafted, I didn't like the draft, I think most of what Krivsky did in the draft has been highly overrated by too optimistic RZers. I said Fleury is a top college catcher; nobody got Wieters or Posey witn a 15th pick either. Fleury was drafted in the top five rounds out of an absolutely top line college program. He's a top college catcher. Mes is outperforming him currently at two levels higher in the minor leagues. I just don't think we have anything that's terribly meaningful data about Mes. What's meaningful data about a kid two years out of high school baseball facing much more experienced pitchers? I'd suggest that under such circumstances the meaning of the data, as well as its meaningfulness itself, is changing nearly every day as Mes becomes more experienced.

  15. #59
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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Devin will be fine if he keeps doing what he is doing right now and has been for the last 3 months. Throwing runners out, walking half as often as he strikes out and post a .163 IsoP will get it done.

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    Re: Will Devin Mesoraco be a bust?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Note I said above that I thought Mes was overdrafted, I didn't like the draft, I think most of what Krivsky did in the draft has been highly overrated by too optimistic RZers. I said Fleury is a top college catcher; nobody got Wieters or Posey witn a 15th pick either. Fleury was drafted in the top five rounds out of an absolutely top line college program. He's a top college catcher. Mes is outperforming him currently at two levels higher in the minor leagues.
    Wow, 49 AB- great sample size!

    I just don't think we have anything that's terribly meaningful data about Mes. What's meaningful data about a kid two years out of high school baseball facing much more experienced pitchers? I'd suggest that under such circumstances the meaning of the data, as well as its meaningfulness itself, is changing nearly every day as Mes becomes more experienced.
    Are you trying to set the world record for meaningful uses of the word meaningful?
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