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Thread: Homer finally deserves his chance

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Homer finally deserves his chance

    and I am not talking about a 1 or 2 start until Volquez comes back opportunity.

    He may have been rushed before but his recent numbers indicate that he may is ready for success at the major league level. The number before never really gave any hope that he was ready to succeed. Just because he now has the command to succeed doesn't mean that the transition will be instantaneous. At a minimum he need to be in the rotation for an extended period of time. He has so much more upside than Owings(who is not terrible as a 5th starter).
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    HOMER COMING SATURDAY? The Reds have TBA listed for Saturday’s starter against Cleveland.

    Is there a chance Homer Bailey will make that start?

    “He could,” Jocketty said.

    Bailey has been on quite the roll at Triple-A Louisville since learning to throw the split-finger fastball.

    He’s 4-0 with a 0.46 ERA in his last five starts. He’s gone 38 1/3 innings, allowing 30 hits. He’s walked seven and struck out 38.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...tInRPoYpmq8%3D
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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    HOMER COMING SATURDAY? The Reds have TBA listed for Saturday’s starter against Cleveland.

    Is there a chance Homer Bailey will make that start?

    “He could,” Jocketty said.

    Bailey has been on quite the roll at Triple-A Louisville since learning to throw the split-finger fastball.

    He’s 4-0 with a 0.46 ERA in his last five starts. He’s gone 38 1/3 innings, allowing 30 hits. He’s walked seven and struck out 38.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...tInRPoYpmq8%3D
    His BB/K ratio and HR% indicate the time is now. Homer gave up a 6 homers in April but since then he has given up only 4 in~70IP. His K rate has been all year but over the last two months the BBs have plummeted.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    I would've given Homer another few weeks in Louisville but it looks like he'll make the start in Cleveland on Saturday. I think if the Reds are going to bring up Homer, they need to give him more than a couple starts, no matter what the results are. When Volquez returns, push Owings to the bullpen and let Homer make 10-15 starts and then evaluate him.

    Homer just needs to throw strikes and hit his spots. From I remember of his last start, the Indians didn't exactly hit him hard other than the DeRosa HR. He only allowed three hits but he walked six batters. If he throws strikes, he should have success.
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    HS Athletic Director alexad's Avatar
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    I agree, Homer needs to come up and see what he can do over a period of time.
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    The odds are still very low--even with his recent success--that Homer will ever pan out in the majors. But I agree, it's definitely time to give him the most extended look he needs in the majors; this season's toast, so we might as well know whether there's anything there or not. A three month trial is a nice big snapshot for a not-so-young-anymore arm.

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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    It would be HUGE if Homer Bailey could develop into a solid big league starter sometime soon. That would give the Reds three young starters with top-of-rotation talent in Edinson Volquez (age 25), Johnny Cueto (age 23), and Homer Bailey (age 23). Behind them you have Travis Wood (1.27 ERA, 34 BB/78 K in 92 IP at AA) and Zach Stewart (1.70 ERA, 16 BB/57 K, 2.35 GO/FO in AA) as others who could breaking into the majors sometime before 2011. Add in Aaron Harang to that group and it allows the Reds to shop Arroyo for prospects or a bat.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 06-24-2009 at 01:56 PM.
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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The odds are still very low--even with his recent success--that Homer will ever pan out in the majors.
    Homer has a career path that looks somewhat similar to Volquez. The one difference is it looks like Homer may have gotten his arms around the command issue .. the one thing that Volquez still struggles with.

    Harang had marginal minor league numbers and it took a few seasons and until age 27 until he had success in the majors. I think the odds are pretty good Homer will find success at some point, the major issue due to his status is will he find it with the Reds or will it be a few more years before he finds it with someone else.
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    Homer has a career path that looks somewhat similar to Volquez. The one difference is it looks like Homer may have gotten his arms around the command issue .. the one thing that Volquez still struggles with.

    Harang had marginal minor league numbers and it took a few seasons and until age 27 until he had success in the majors. I think the odds are pretty good Homer will find success at some point, the major issue due to his status is will he find it with the Reds or will it be a few more years before he finds it with someone else.
    Command in the minors is not reliably translatable to the majors. It can happen, but because he was able to do it in AAA is nowhere near a guarantee that he will do it in the majors.

    Given his historical and consistent struggles with velocity and command, I'd rank Homer as pretty definitely a long shot.

    What separates Volquez from Homer is that Volquez was able to put up a monstrous K rate in the minors; something that has basically eluded Bailey with the exception of a handful of short streaks ( a long way back in his minor league career).
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 06-24-2009 at 01:26 PM.

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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The odds are still very low--even with his recent success--that Homer will ever pan out in the majors. But I agree, it's definitely time to give him the most extended look he needs in the majors; this season's toast, so we might as well know whether there's anything there or not. A three month trial is a nice big snapshot for a not-so-young-anymore arm.
    If Jocketty believes what you said in the post above, wouldn't the Reds be better served using Homer as a chip in a trade now that they've shined him up in AAA.

    Why expose him at the major league level if you think he's destined to fail. Makes no sense.
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by NJReds View Post
    If Jocketty believes what you said in the post above, wouldn't the Reds be better served using Homer as a chip in a trade now that they've shined him up in AAA.

    Why expose him at the major league level if you think he's destined to fail. Makes no sense.
    I don't think he's "destined" to fail. The right coaching and support can keep his head on straight and help him weather difficulties. And obviously, I have no idea what Jocketty really thinks about Homer.

    At this point, Homer's ceiling is probably more valuable to the Reds than it is in trade, given the tightness of the trade market.

  14. #13
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The odds are still very low--even with his recent success--that Homer will ever pan out in the majors. But I agree, it's definitely time to give him the most extended look he needs in the majors; this season's toast, so we might as well know whether there's anything there or not. A three month trial is a nice big snapshot for a not-so-young-anymore arm.
    23 years old is "not-so-young-anymore"? Yikes.

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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The odds are still very low--even with his recent success--that Homer will ever pan out in the majors. But I agree, it's definitely time to give him the most extended look he needs in the majors; this season's toast, so we might as well know whether there's anything there or not. A three month trial is a nice big snapshot for a not-so-young-anymore arm.
    2008 was really the only year in which Homer struggled mightily for most of the year. He's had pretty good numbers otherwise...even if his command has been a bit off.

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    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Homer finally deserves his chance

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Given his historical and consistent struggles with velocity and command, I'd rank Homer as pretty definitely a long shot.
    his issues may have been due more to being rushed than anything else. He was always promoted faster than his numbers suggested he should have been.

    If you are a HS arm unless you have killer stuff(which is extremely rare) the process of learning how to pitch is going to take at least 4-5 years.

    A kid like Greinke after his struggles over the last 3-4 years has finally figued it out. The transition is almost never smooth and linear. Homer has the stuff, his questions marks were more due to makeup and command and his minor league numbers consistently reflected him not being ready yet the Reds pushed anyway. At least, finally, his minor league numbers indicate that there is at least hope for success. Before it was nothing short of wishing for a miracle.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand


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