Immediate Promotions

[Benihana]

There is no reason to call up one of your top hitting prospects to 'ease him in'. All that is likely to do is slow down the time in which he is ready to play full time, especially if he is starting 2 nights a week in which you happen to get a lefty on the mound.

I'm not sure if Stubbs is really a "top hitting prospect." I would consider him more of a "top fielding prospect" that isn't bad with the stick. I think he would provide value to the Reds this year with his glove, and at the same time get a feel for major league pitching. Like Bruce, he's going to have growing pains- probably much worse than Bruce. Like Bailey (and Bruce), I'd rather go through those now while you're not in contention vs. next season when you (hopefully) are- and the team needs you to step up and contribute in a major way.

Finally, and I acknowledge that this is very low on the priority list for reasons to promote Stubbs, but it does create an opening for Heisey, who certainly doesn't have anything left to prove in AA. That said, my hope is that they sell high and package Heisey at the deadline before promoting him (and possibly exposing a weakness.) If they don't move Heisey in the next month, he has to be in Louisville immediately- and it is becoming more apparent every day that he'll only get there once they promote Stubbs to Cincy.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

TOP (non-pitching) prospects:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Heisey (stock is UP!)
4. Stubbs
5. Soto
6. Cozart (stock is UP!)
7. Francisco
8. Valaika (could be dropping)
9. Mesoraco (needs to get the OPS above .700 in tough hitter's league)
10. Henry
11. Puckett
12. Reed
13. Rojas
14. Sappelt
15. Wiley

Rodriguez, Duran, and Hamilton will filter up this list (hopefully) as they log some playing time in Rookie ball.

[SMcGavin]

I keep hearing the call for Stubbs. Dare I say I am with TRF that I leave him down for a while still? Not that I think he has a lot to prove down there, but why make the move when he isn't likely an upgrade to Chris Dickerson right now who is already on the roster?

Yeah, that's the thing. Even if you think Stubbs is ready now, an optimistic projection of his current ability is basically a right-handed Dickerson.

[dougdirt]

I'm not sure if Stubbs is really a "top hitting prospect." I would consider him more of a "top fielding prospect" that isn't bad with the stick. I think he would provide value to the Reds this year with his glove, and at the same time get a feel for major league pitching. Like Bruce, he's going to have growing pains- probably much worse than Bruce. Like Bailey (and Bruce), I'd rather go through those now while you're not in contention vs. next season when you (hopefully) are- and the team needs you to step up and contribute in a major way.

Finally, and I acknowledge that this is very low on the priority list for reasons to promote Stubbs, but it does create an opening for Heisey, who certainly doesn't have anything left to prove in AA. That said, my hope is that they sell high and package Heisey at the deadline before promoting him (and possibly exposing a weakness.) If they don't move Heisey in the next month, he has to be in Louisville immediately- and it is becoming more apparent every day that he'll only get there once they promote Stubbs to Cincy.

Well no matter how you want to slice it, he is a top prospect who hits every day. You don't 'ease' those guys into the line up.

As for Heisey having nothing left to prove at AA, I will disagree slightly. His first 200 PA he walked 25 times and struck out just 14 times. His last 80 he has struck out 18 times and walked 7. Certainly a fine ratio by itself, but its a drastic change to what he has been doing. Have pitchers found a weakness to exploit.

[Benihana]

TOP (non-pitching) prospects:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Heisey (stock is UP!)
4. Stubbs
5. Soto
6. Cozart (stock is UP!)
7. Francisco
8. Valaika (could be dropping)
9. Mesoraco (needs to get the OPS above .700 in tough hitter's league)
10. Henry
11. Puckett
12. Reed
13. Rojas
14. Sappelt
15. Wiley

Rodriguez, Duran, and Hamilton will filter up this list (hopefully) as they log some playing time in Rookie ball.

Looks pretty good, although I think Alex Buchholz should be on there somewhere, probably ahead of at least a couple of those guys at the bottom of the list.

[bucksfan2]

Well no matter how you want to slice it, he is a top prospect who hits every day. You don't 'ease' those guys into the line up.

As for Heisey having nothing left to prove at AA, I will disagree slightly. His first 200 PA he walked 25 times and struck out just 14 times. His last 80 he has struck out 18 times and walked 7. Certainly a fine ratio by itself, but its a drastic change to what he has been doing. Have pitchers found a weakness to exploit.

I tend to agree with this. When Stubbs makes it up to the Reds he is doing so as the starting CF. His defensive abilities as well as his ability to find first base will allow him to hit against both righties and lefties.

IMO the Reds should buy Willy T a plane ticket to Japan and bring Stubbs up to play everyday CF. If he struggles send him back down to AAA with knowledge on what he needs to work on. I don't think the Reds view Dickerson as the answer in CF and I think he should start to get more and more playing time in LF as the season continues.

[Benihana]

I tend to agree with this. When Stubbs makes it up to the Reds he is doing so as the starting CF. His defensive abilities as well as his ability to find first base will allow him to hit against both righties and lefties.

IMO the Reds should buy Willy T a plane ticket to Japan and bring Stubbs up to play everyday CF. If he struggles send him back down to AAA with knowledge on what he needs to work on. I don't think the Reds view Dickerson as the answer in CF and I think he should start to get more and more playing time in LF as the season continues.

While I like Dickerson, there's no way he'll ever hit enough to be a starting LF on a legitimate team. Same with Heisey IMO. That's why the Reds should make a decision and package at least one of those three for a bigger need. If it was me, I'd sell high on Heisey.

[camisadelgolf]

I keep hearing the call for Stubbs. Dare I say I am with TRF that I leave him down for a while still? Not that I think he has a lot to prove down there, but why make the move when he isn't likely an upgrade to Chris Dickerson right now who is already on the roster?

Unlike Dickerson, Stubbs doesn't have a .448 OPS against left-handers this year. Still, I wouldn't call up Stubbs unless he's going to play everyday, and with Taveras on the team, I don't see that happening just yet.

[dougdirt]

While I like Dickerson, there's no way he'll ever hit enough to be a starting LF on a legitimate team. Same with Heisey IMO. That's why the Reds should make a decision and package at least one of those three for a bigger need. If it was me, I'd sell high on Heisey.

I do think its interesting that Heisey is on the futures team. Not that he isn't a fine prospect, but its worth noting that some teams use the Futures Game as a showcase for talent they may want to move.

[GOYA]

Here are the AAA variables:

Kevin Barker - AA doesn't have a 1B ready to send up - he stays (and he's on fire)
Hopper/McDonald - at least one needs to go to clear a spot for Heisey/Frazier
Luis Bolivar - needs to go when Cozart is ready for AAA (or Frazier if he plays IF)
Brian Peterson - needs to go when Denove is ready for AAA
Adam Pettyjohn - just needs to go. Maybe Ondrusek can take his spot?
Camilo Vazquez - not sure he belongs in AAA
Jeff Kennard - needs to go when a reliever is ready at AA (Lutz?)

Assuming Homer goes to Cincy, the AAA rotation is:

Maloney
Lehr
LeCure
Ramirez
Thompson (soon)

The one guy that is not considered a prospect here is Lehr. IMO, he's simply too good to just cut to make room for Wood. The Reds might use him. 31 isn't that old.

So, looking at the guys in AA ready to come up, there's really one area that isn't blocked by a real prospect and that's the outfield. And I'm not so sure Heisey is ready for AAA anyway.

All this could be solved if Walt would just package some guys up for a needed big league bat.

edit: forgot to mention, Stubbs is not ready to move up.

[membengal]

Well no matter how you want to slice it, he is a top prospect who hits every day. You don't 'ease' those guys into the line up.

As for Heisey having nothing left to prove at AA, I will disagree slightly. His first 200 PA he walked 25 times and struck out just 14 times. His last 80 he has struck out 18 times and walked 7. Certainly a fine ratio by itself, but its a drastic change to what he has been doing. Have pitchers found a weakness to exploit.

oh good gravy, you're kidding, right, Doug?

I know you love Stubbs, but, c'mon. If you think that is evidence that Heisey has "things to work on" at AA, then Stubbs would never have been promoted from Low A ball. Gracious.

[dougdirt]

oh good gravy, you're kidding, right, Doug?

I know you love Stubbs, but, c'mon. If you think that is evidence that Heisey has "things to work on" at AA, then Stubbs would never have been promoted from Low A ball. Gracious.

Are you saying a guys strikeout rate tripling after 2 months in a league isn't something that makes you stop and think 'hmm, maybe we should let him work his way out of it at that level'?

It has nothing to do with Stubbs. It has to do with perhaps pitchers finding something to exploit in his swing finally. Obviously its not a huge thing because his strikeout rate is still fine, but its a dramatic difference from the first two months of the season. Of course maybe its just something that Heisey was controlling or not controlling because of something he did. I don't watch him play every day. But something certainly changed in June with his plate appearances, be it self inflicted or something pitchers started noticing.

[SMcGavin]

I'm happy with the season Stubbs is having but let's not act like he is killing AAA. He is at .284/.369/.393 for the season. That's solid but not exactly knocking down the door, especially for a guy who is 24.

[mth123]

TOP (non-pitching) prospects:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Heisey (stock is UP!)
4. Stubbs
5. Soto
6. Cozart (stock is UP!)
7. Francisco
8. Valaika (could be dropping)
9. Mesoraco (needs to get the OPS above .700 in tough hitter's league)
10. Henry
11. Puckett
12. Reed
13. Rojas
14. Sappelt
15. Wiley

Rodriguez, Duran, and Hamilton will filter up this list (hopefully) as they log some playing time in Rookie ball.

Agree with the top 8 (but may bump Cozart ahead of Soto). I'd make Henry 9, Dorn 10, Puckett 11, Rojas 12, Sappelt 13, Wiley 14, Mesoraco 15 and Reed 16

[membengal]

Are you saying a guys strikeout rate tripling after 2 months in a league isn't something that makes you stop and think 'hmm, maybe we should let him work his way out of it at that level'?

It has nothing to do with Stubbs. It has to do with perhaps pitchers finding something to exploit in his swing finally. Obviously its not a huge thing because his strikeout rate is still fine, but its a dramatic difference from the first two months of the season. Of course maybe its just something that Heisey was controlling or not controlling because of something he did. I don't watch him play every day. But something certainly changed in June with his plate appearances, be it self inflicted or something pitchers started noticing.

I am saying that those same kinds of issues in Stubbs never caused you to raise a flag of "concern". I find it silly. And I love your stuff, but that's a really odd thing to grab onto to say that Heisey, who is doing stuff at AA that Stubbs never came remotely close to, should hang at AA to "work on". That's just ridiculous.