Yea those guys that dont believe luck is a factor obviously never played.Originally Posted by ukwazoo
Yea those guys that dont believe luck is a factor obviously never played.
BECAUSE LINE DRIVES ARE HARD TO CATCH AND MORE LIKELY TO FALL, this is why BABIP is lame. Yeah Taveras's BABIP is horrible because he has a weak bat and hits routine ground balls even though he is super fast, Votto his lasers which typically fall He isn't "lucky" he is just a solid all around hitter. Not to the .375 variety or whatever he is at, but definitely to the .330 to maybe a .350 variety on a good year.
The league average player pulls a lot of ground balls to shortstop that should go to the opposite field, Votto hits these balls the opposite way solidly.
Or am I just misunderstanding BABIP as a stat?
It doesn't really work unless you look at a few other things as well. For example, line drive percentage. If a player is hitting an unsustainable number of line drives, paired with a high BABIP, you can pretty much guarantee he might be playing a little over his head. True, there is something to be said for hitting the ball hard and making good contact. But that only goes so far.
As far as Bruce being unlucky, that's been discussed at a length here. He hits a lot of fly balls and not a lot of line drives, meaning his type of batted balls are going to go for hits less often (fly balls usually end up as outs or home runs.) That said, he does have a low BABIP on line drives (can't find the exact number, not sure where to look for that), which does suggest maybe some bad luck.
EE's career batting average is .261, The national league's average last season was .260. Guess is is not that unlucky after all
You kinda get it. Even with his high BABIP its simply unsustainable. No player in the history of baseball can continuously put up a .410 BABIP. Even with the line drives which he still has had a bit of luck when it comes to bloops and bleeders.
Manny Ramirez who many view as on of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball has only had one .400+ babip season, his career average is .345.
Babe Ruth career BABIP .340 just like Manny only 1 year of a BABIP over .400.
No one is saying BABIP is only luck based because its not. FB% GB% and LD% all factor in but you can look at Albert Pujols numbers in 2002 and 2003.
LD%
2002: 21.9
2003: 22.5
GB%
2002: 42.9
2003: 41.4
FB%
2002: 35.1
2003: 36.1
Now those numbers are all pretty close. One thing isnt though his 2002 BABIP is .310, while his 2003 BABIP is .350. He certainly didnt hit a whole lot better or worse those 2 years but he gained 40 points in BABIP.
People are suggesting that flyballs turn into outs more often, and they do, but if it wasnt luck based then how could you explain those numbers. Does that .6 of a line drive % really make up that much and is it that much better than 1% more fly balls?
No its luck based. Even the best hitters have luck and bad luck.
Votto is having good luck, hes not a .360 hitter overall, hes just been lucky. Being lucky doesnt mean you are a goign to be a bad hitter it simply means you are getting gifts from the baseball gods more than you normally would.
Wow, and his defense definitely makes him worth that 1 batting average point, good point
This thread is obviously a response to the "Jay Bruce has been unlucky" thread on both boards.
No, I don't think Joey Votto sucks and that wasn't the point of this thread. I think he's a great hitter and have no problems with him.
I do have problems with people defending a .209 hitter because he's "unlucky" and yet I'm the one who's seen as a clown. You know you've been losing for a long time when the majority of the "intelligent" fans are just accepting mediocrity from the biggest prospect this organization has seen in a long, long time.
thats probably the nicest way I have ever seen someone straight up insult someone on the board for using facts.
I don't think anyone is accepting this as Jay Bruce's finished product but the facts are present for why the numbers are so poor. He has the lowest BABIP in baseball, by far.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2015 Attendance Record: 2-0
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1
DT, you used sublity and irony and you criticised TheBruce. None of that goes around here.
There's only one "fact" that counts: the guy plays in the best hitters park in baseball and hes hitting .209.
I know Votto's BABIP is pretty rediculously high so far this season, but I would like to see how his other stats look such as high GB, FB, and LD%'s. What is a good place to look at these? This year it just seems as if Votto has been a hitting machine and really not even been that lucky, it seems like usually he just hits a liner into the gap for a double, or a homerun, or a bloop into no mans land into shallow left center.
Another sort of unrelated topic that would be interested is looking as these stats for a lefthanded power hitter to see how the shift effects the BABIP.
2 games under .500 and you wanna bash one of our only rays of light so far for being too lucky? Gimme a break.
Last edited by corwinator3407; 06-27-2009 at 01:25 PM.
Fangraphs is probably the best stat site in the world.
as for Votto his numbers from 2008 and 2009 are pretty much the same. Hes hit 3% more flyballs this year than he did last year other than that its all the same.
His BABIP has corrected itself some its now around .350 but in 2008 it was .297.
you also have to take into the account what the league average is because simply D might be crappier the year before or after.
I concur.
Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH%
2007 Reds 0.59 26.1 % 27.5 % 46.4 % 6.3 % 12.5 % 15.8 % 0.0 %
2008 Reds 1.44 25.2 % 44.1 % 30.7 % 3.8 % 18.5 % 2.7 % 50.0 %
2009 Reds 1.24 25.2 % 41.4 % 33.3 % 2.7 % 24.3 % 4.3 % 0.0 %
Total * - - - 1.27 25.3 % 41.7 % 32.9 % 4.0 % 18.6 % 4.0 % 50.0 %
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