What prospects to trade?

[Kc61]

I don't think you trade Bailey. Volquez isn't healthy, Arroyo has a 5.5 ERA, Harang has been inconsisent, Owings is fifth starter. I just don't see enough pitching to trade off Bailey who finally has had success at AAA.

The obvious trade candidates are Alonso, Stubbs, Heisey, Cozart, Frazier, Wood. Frankly, I'd hold onto Wood more than the rest, pitching depth is key for any team. I'd also hold onto Cozart unless a better shortstop prospect comes back.

I think the Reds have to dangle some combination of Alonso, Stubbs, Heisey and Frazier to be players for a major hitter. Plus, maybe, one of their veteran pitchers.

I'm sure people would rather trade Francisco or maybe Soto or maybe others who haven't yet achieved at the high levels. I just don't think you get a major hitter in return unless the prospect has shown something at AAA or AA, or in the case of Alonso is a top rated guy.

Would Harang and Alonso plus lesser prospects bring back Matt Holiday? Reds would need an extension for Holliday or they can't do it, no rentals.

Views?

[lollipopcurve]

For me, I'd be more willing to deal Stubbs and Francisco than the other guys you mention. I'd prefer to keep Frazier, Heisey, Cozart, Alonso and the pitchers.

[Kc61]

For me, I'd be more willing to deal Stubbs and Francisco than the other guys you mention. I'd prefer to keep Frazier, Heisey, Cozart, Alonso and the pitchers.

In the real world, Stubbs (now below .280 at AAA) and a young, raw Francisco doesn't get you back a major hitter. I'm talking about a realistic effort to get a guy who would hit in the middle of the Reds order for a few years and actually improve the team.

[Benihana]

I don't think you trade Bailey. Volquez isn't healthy, Arroyo has a 5.5 ERA, Harang has been inconsisent, Owings is fifth starter. I just don't see enough pitching to trade off Bailey who finally has had success at AAA.

The obvious trade candidates are Alonso, Stubbs, Heisey, Cozart, Frazier, Wood. Frankly, I'd hold onto Wood more than the rest, pitching depth is key for any team. I'd also hold onto Cozart unless a better shortstop prospect comes back.

I think the Reds have to dangle some combination of Alonso, Stubbs, Heisey and Frazier to be players for a major hitter. Plus, maybe, one of their veteran pitchers.

I'm sure people would rather trade Francisco or maybe Soto or maybe others who haven't yet achieved at the high levels. I just don't think you get a major hitter in return unless the prospect has shown something at AAA or AA, or in the case of Alonso is a top rated guy.

Would Harang and Alonso plus lesser prospects bring back Matt Holiday? Reds would need an extension for Holliday or they can't do it, no rentals.

Views?

I don't think the Reds or the A's would have any interest in a Harang-for-Holliday deal. If the A's deal Holliday, they want young, cheap prospects in return. Which brings us back to the topic of the thread:

I'd trade Heisey first. He's the perfect sell-high candidate, and he's stuck behind Dickerson and Stubbs on the organizational depth chart. His value has never been higher, and will likely only go down from here.

Under normal circumstances, I'd trade Alonso next given his high trade value. Although with the injury and the new promotion to Carolina, he is undervalued right now IMO. I'd wait until he regains his health and starts mashing at AA before considering him for a trade. I believe Alonso will be a quality bat at the major league level. That said, he really doesn't have a spot in Cincy if Votto stays entrenched at 1B. If you can move him for an impact LF or SS, you pull the trigger.

Juan Francisco would be next on my list, and although you said he wouldn't bring much in return, yesterday's Jayson Stark article seems to indicate otherwise. Apparently other teams' scouts have an affinity for guys like Francisco and Matt Maloney, who I would also trade in a second. I think a pitching-starved young team like Washington would have real interest in Maloney. I'd like to take Willingham and/or Milledge off of their hands.

I would trade Stubbs next, assuming you hang onto Heisey, however I don't see the Reds trading Stubbs after all they have invested in him. Like Heisey, he is producing at an all-time high right now. However, I believe he'll get a shot in Cincinnati before he goes anywhere via trade.

I would consider moving Wood after all of these guys, as his value may never be higher as well. However I would like to hang onto him due to the dearth of lefties in the system. I think Wood, Stewart, and Leake (once/if he signs) will form a nice trio of young guns, quite similar to what Volquez/Cueto/Bailey were heading into last season.

I would also like to keep Frazier, who despite terrible organizational mismanagement still provides the most versatile option for the franchise, being a realistic option for 2010 at both 3B and LF. His professional approach at the plate coupled with his good character make him a great candidate to be a very popular Red for many years to come. I could see him forming a captain-like trio with Votto and Bruce.

I would not trade Cozart given the complete lack of any SS options in the organization, at least until Valaika gets back over the Mendoza line. Unless the Reds acquire another solution at SS, you cannot move Cozart at this time. I also do not think there is another organization to which he would represent nearly as much value as he does to the Reds.

So, given their current values, I would trade these prospects in the following order:

1. Heisey
2. Alonso (only after he starts mashing in AA)
3. Francisco
4. Maloney
5. Stubbs
6. Wood
7. Frazier
8. Cozart

[lollipopcurve]

In the real world, Stubbs (now below .280 at AAA) and a young, raw Francisco doesn't get you back a major hitter. I'm talking about a realistic effort to get a guy who would hit in the middle of the Reds order for a few years and actually improve the team.

I'd say in the real world teams don't trade the middle of the order hitter who's under team control for several years. The available MOO hitters will be expensive vets, probably short timers. I think Stubbs/Francisco, plus maybe an arm, has a shot for a player like that.

Why trade a Frazier or an Alonso when they very well may be the MOO hitters you're looking to acquire, within a year or two? Francisco's a longer shot to be that kind of hitter, but he too has a chance to become one (thus his attractiveness to a team trying to deal a good vet bat, in combination with the strong defensive CF in Stubbs).

[Benihana]

Why trade a Frazier or an Alonso when they very well may be the MOO hitters you're looking to acquire, within a year or two?

I would trade Yonder Alonso the 1B for Yonder Alonso the LF, if that makes any sense. In other words, I would trade him for a guy like Matt LaPorta, Jason Heyward, or Mike Stanton.

I would love to trade him for Gordon Beckham.

[JaxRed]

Don't trade prospects. Trade expensive vets.

[mace]

To me, the guys who pack extra value are the ones whose numbers are complemented by either great makeup (Frazier, Heisey, and/or Stubbs/Alonso/Cozart/Valaika) or scarcity (Wood, as a lefty, possibly Fairel and Horst for the same reason, and maybe Maloney, although, if his lefthandedness would place a premium on his exchange rate, I'd have to strongly consider it). Not sure who that leaves. Bailey, maybe. Possibly Alonso/Francisco/Soto/Stewart/Roenicke/Fisher/Thompson. But that'd be my guideline. Of course, any remote assessment of makeup can be way off.

[dougdirt]

I would trade Yonder Alonso the 1B for Yonder Alonso the LF, if that makes any sense. In other words, I would trade him for a guy like Matt LaPorta, Jason Heyward, or Mike Stanton.

I would love to trade him for Gordon Beckham.

Heyward, Stanton and Beckham aren't going anywhere (and I wouldn't trade him for the latter two btw). Its not likely that LaPorta is either. My issue is, you say you would trade Alonso for the LF equivalent.... but isn't that kind of whats going to happen when he gets to the majors and we then get Votto in LF?

[Benihana]

Heyward, Stanton and Beckham aren't going anywhere (and I wouldn't trade him for the latter two btw). Its not likely that LaPorta is either. My issue is, you say you would trade Alonso for the LF equivalent.... but isn't that kind of whats going to happen when he gets to the majors and we then get Votto in LF?

Who knows?

Many on this board have assumed (and I too have been guilty of this on occasion) that Votto will simply move to LF once Alonso is ready. But has there been any indication whatsoever from any credible source that this might actually happen? What if the Reds have no intention of moving Votto (like moving Phillips to SS)? What if Votto doesn't want to move (like Dunn a few years back)? My point is there is no legitimate reason to assume Joey Votto is moving to LF, other than messageboard hypotheticals.

That is why I'd rather trade Alonso for a real LF (or SS, etc.)

[dougdirt]

Who knows?

Many on this board have assumed (and I too have been guilty of this on occasion) that Votto will simply move to LF once Alonso is ready. But has there been any indication whatsoever from any credible source that this might actually happen? What if the Reds have no intention of moving Votto (like moving Phillips to SS)? What if Votto doesn't want to move (like Dunn a few years back)? My point is there is no legitimate reason to assume Joey Votto is moving to LF, other than messageboard hypotheticals.

That is why I'd rather trade Alonso for a real LF (or SS, etc.)

I don't think the team took Alonso in the top 10 of the draft without talking to Votto about a potential move to LF. He has played there in the past, albeit in a brief stint. Sure, no one has come out and said anything officially, but until Alonso gets here, they aren't going to say it because well, anything can happen and maybe something crazy does and he doesn't make it.

[Benihana]

I don't think the team took Alonso in the top 10 of the draft without talking to Votto about a potential move to LF.

I do.

Joey Votto was a platooning rookie when they drafted Alonso. In fact I would almost guarantee they didn't talk to Votto or get his permission before they drafted Alonso. That's just not how these things work.

If the draft was today, it might be possible that they would consult someone like Votto (yet still questionable at best.) But Joey has come a long way from where he was last June. I think the team consulted Votto before drafting Alonso just as much as they consulted Jay Bruce before signing Juan Duran. In other words, there was zero input.

[dougdirt]

I do.

Joey Votto was a platooning rookie when they drafted Alonso. In fact I would almost guarantee they didn't talk to Votto or get his permission before they drafted Alonso. That's just not how these things work.

If the draft was today, it might be possible that they would consult someone like Votto (yet still questionable at best.) But Joey has come a long way from where he was last June. I think the team consulted Votto before drafting Alonso just as much as they consulted Jay Bruce before signing Juan Duran. In other words, there was zero input.

I don't think they asked Votto about drafting Alonso, but once they did I bet they talked to him about a potential move to LF. He either went to them and asked 'why are we drafting a 1B?' or they went to him and said 'Joey, we just couldn't pass on this kid, he is the guy we think can help the Reds the most in the future but in order for that to happen we think you might need to move to LF because you have the athleticism to do so'. To think one of those two things didn't happen is burying your head in the sand.

[camisadelgolf]

I'd rather the Reds put more effort toward competing in 2011 and 2012. With that said, if the Reds part with someone listed above, I'd want it to be someone who is far away from contributing. What do you think a package of Juan Francisco, J.C. Sulbaran, and Justin Reed could bring in?

[Benihana]

I don't think they asked Votto about drafting Alonso, but once they did I bet they talked to him about a potential move to LF. He either went to them and asked 'why are we drafting a 1B?' or they went to him and said 'Joey, we just couldn't pass on this kid, he is the guy we think can help the Reds the most in the future but in order for that to happen we think you might need to move to LF because you have the athleticism to do so'. To think one of those two things didn't happen is burying your head in the sand.

Burying my head in the sand? Ok doug...

These conversations are getting more and more futile. I suppose you have some (even the slightest bit) of evidence to back any of this up? Or you're just making it all up on pure conjecture due to all of your front office experience?