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Thread: Reds looking for right handed bat

  1. #46
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    It also wouldn't hurt if he magically turned into a competent defender at third base -- as it stands, his inability to play defense robs his bat of the impact it might otherwise have.

    Looking at his errors alone, he gave the opposition almost a game's worth of free Outs last year (23), and that doesn't even get into his limited range at third base and all the balls that a better defender WOULD get to that turned into base hits or doubles down the line.

    Encarnacion is the best of whats around when it comes to third basemen on the Reds 40 man roster -- but he isn't so far above replacement level or so good that the Reds shouldn't actively be pursuing a better player for his spot.

    As it stands, their pursuit of DeRosa is a pretty fair indicator that the Reds probably value Encarnacion appropriately.
    THIS.

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  3. #47
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    I think this little valuation table from Fangraphs sums it up nicely. EE is certainly an imperfect player, but he's a huge upgrade over the level of production we've gotten so far and it would be expensive for us to acquire somebody who is a marked upgrade from him.
    Code:
    Season	Team	Batting	Fldg	Rplmt	Pos	RAR	WAR	Dollars	Salary
    
    2005	Reds	-0.9	 0.8	 7.8	1.1	 8.8	 0.9	 $3.0	 
    2006	Reds	 8.9	-9.4	15.6	1.6	 16.7	 1.6	 $6.0	$0.3
    2007	Reds	 7.4	-11.7	18.7	2.1	 16.6	 1.6	 $6.6	$0.4
    2008	Reds	 9.4	-9.8	19.4	2.3	 21.3	 2.1	 $9.5	$0.5
    2009	Reds	-6.0	-3.5	 2.6	0.3	-6.7	-0.7	-$3.0	
    
    Total*	- - -	 18.9	-33.6	64.0	7.4	 56.7	 5.6	 $22.1	$1.2
    Here's a link for the background on these numbers. These are park adjusted runs, fwiw. In short, EE is an above average bat, a below average fielder, and overall a 1.5-2.0 win (above replacement) player. His bat has shown the potential to push his overall value up by a win or so; but that remains to be seen.

    Since busting out in a full time role in 2006, DeRosa has been roughly a 3 win player. So assuming EE merely replicates what he's averaged and does not improve, DeRosa is something on the order of .5 win better than EE for the rest of the season. Not anything to get worked up over -- and certainly not an upgrade worth trading away legitimate major league talent for.

    With Gomes finally in the majors and crushing the ball and Dickerson establishing himself as a verifiable major leaguer, SS is the glaring issue. Holliday would be nice to have if he were cheap, but he won't be. I think he'd hit much better in GABP and he is a plus defender. However, he's not going to sign an extension and it's just not worth the price. One guy who would at least be a decent SS replacement, is likely available, has some upside, and wouldn't cost the farm is Stephen Drew.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-29-2009 at 10:09 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #48
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    I'd go hard after Drew if he's really available. I'd pay a lot and try to get Doug Davis at the same time (FCB would love it).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #49
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Maloney, Wood, Valiaka, Stubbs, Frazier and Roenicke for Drew and Davis.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #50
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    It also wouldn't hurt if he magically turned into a competent defender at third base -- as it stands, his inability to play defense robs his bat of the impact it might otherwise have.

    Looking at his errors alone, he gave the opposition almost a game's worth of free Outs last year (23), and that doesn't even get into his limited range at third base and all the balls that a better defender WOULD get to that turned into base hits or doubles down the line.

    Encarnacion is the best of whats around when it comes to third basemen on the Reds 40 man roster -- but he isn't so far above replacement level or so good that the Reds shouldn't actively be pursuing a better player for his spot.

    As it stands, their pursuit of DeRosa is a pretty fair indicator that the Reds probably value Encarnacion appropriately.
    And as I've been saying for years now, when the Reds find an actual replacement for Edwin at 3rd base, somebody who is you know, better at baseball than he is, I'll be all for replacing him.

    I understand EE is a bad defender, and also understand he's going to OPS around .800 every year. There's a chance he improves, and probably very little chance he gets any worse anytime soon.

    You have no idea where the Reds were planning on playing DeRosa if they got him, so you can't say it's a fair indicator of anything.
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  7. #51
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think this little valuation table from Fangraphs sums it up nicely. EE is certainly an imperfect player, but he's a huge upgrade over the level of production we've gotten so far and it would be expensive for us to acquire somebody who is marked upgrade from him.
    Code:
    Season	Team	Batting	Fldg	Rplmt	Pos	RAR	WAR	Dollars	Salary
    
    2005	Reds	-0.9	 0.8	 7.8	1.1	 8.8	 0.9	 $3.0	 
    2006	Reds	 8.9	-9.4	15.6	1.6	 16.7	 1.6	 $6.0	$0.3
    2007	Reds	 7.4	-11.7	18.7	2.1	 16.6	 1.6	 $6.6	$0.4
    2008	Reds	 9.4	-9.8	19.4	2.3	 21.3	 2.1	 $9.5	$0.5
    2009	Reds	-6.0	-3.5	 2.6	0.3	-6.7	-0.7	-$3.0	
    
    Total*	- - -	 18.9	-33.6	64.0	7.4	 56.7	 5.6	 $22.1	$1.2
    Here's a link for the background on these numbers. These are park adjusted runs, fwiw. In short, EE is an above average bat, a below average , and overall a 1.5-2.0 win (above replacement) player. His bat has shown the potential to push his overall value up by a win or so; but that remains to be seen.

    Since busting out in a full time role in 2006, DeRosa has been roughly a 3 win player. So assuming EE merely replicates what he's averaged and does not improve, DeRosa is something on the order of .5 win better than EE for the rest of the season. Not anything to get worked up over -- and certainly not an upgrade worth trading away legitimate major league talent for.

    With Gomes finally in the majors and crushing the ball and Dickerson establishing himself as a verifiable major leaguer, SS is the glaring issue. Holliday would be nice to have if he were cheap, but he won't be. I think he'd hit much better in GABP and he is a plus defender. However, he's not going to sign an extension and it's just not worth the price. One guy who would at least be a decent SS replacement, is likely available, has some upside, and wouldn't cost the farm is Stephen Drew.
    Again, you hit the nail on the head. I don't understand why it is so hard for some people to accept what EE is at this point in his career, a slighty above average major league player (at the age of 26) with a chance of getting better. 3rd base isn't a need for the Reds right now compared to SS and even LF.
    Last edited by reds44; 06-29-2009 at 08:37 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  8. #52
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Maloney, Wood, Valiaka, Stubbs, Frazier and Roenicke for Drew and Davis.
    lets simplify things:

    Drew was good last year. 21 HRs. OPS+ 110. This year his OPS+ is 87.
    why the drop off? I don't know what he is like defensively.
    Question #1: if Drew really is available do we want him?

    Question #2: what would it take to get him & is it worth it for the Reds?

    Question #3: what other shortstops are available and what would it take to get them?
    .

  9. #53
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    I'd love to see the Reds explore Brandon Wood from the Angels. I think he makes a lot of sense for the Reds.

    First, he is an excellent defensive player. I watched quite a bit of the guy play shortstop a few years ago and was impressed with his fluidity and footwork. Before I witnessed his game, I assumed he was a Felipe Lopez type defensive player but was really surprised. His defense is very smooth. He is not is not in Erik Aybar's class, but he is good. He can play shortstop for the Reds or move to third and win a Gold Glove.

    His offense could also be a plus. Forget the 43 homeruns a few years ago. He would be a thirty plus homerun guy in the GABP.

    I would love to see this 24-year old bring his right handed bat between Votto and Bruce for the next several years. He could play short or third and provide a productive right handed bat to the line-up.

    Would they take Arroyo?
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  10. #54
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Again, you hit the nail on the head. I don't understand why it is so hard for some people to accept what EE is at this point in his career, a slighty above average major league player (at the age of 26) with a chance of getting better. 3rd base isn't a need for the Reds right now compared to SS and even LF.
    The issue is, as always, cost and value to the team to acquire better players.

    Acquiring a SS that can hit and field would likely cost the team a fair amount of talent -- they're scarce prospects and teams that do successfully develop true SS prospects don't give them up easily.

    Acquiring a 3B that can hit and field, on the other hand, is usually a fair sight easier. Improving 3B to plus-defense and above-average offensive production would free the Reds to deploy a more defensive-oriented SS in their lineup -- either via someone in-house like Paul Janish or via a trade for a glove-ready SS prospect with some possible bat-upside (which teams are usually more willing to part with).

    The decision is really a no-brainer for me -- be on the lookout for a good deal to improve SS if a good opportunity comes along, but set your sights on improving 3B. Focus on talent you don't have to overpay to acquire.
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  11. #55
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The issue is, as always, cost and value to the team to acquire better players.

    Acquiring a SS that can hit and field would likely cost the team a fair amount of talent -- they're scarce prospects and teams that do successfully develop true SS prospects don't give them up easily.
    Except you don't need that. You just need to find a SS that's better thsn Paul Janish or whichever utility player is chosen to play SS for the day. The Reds actually have a respectable starter at 3rd, making improving SS an easier task.

  12. #56
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    You're focusing on trying to improve a position that doesn't need improvement. Edwin is not the issue, SS is. Why spend talent to acquire a 3rd baseman when you already have an above average 3rd baseman? The Reds most obvious needs are 1. SS and 2. LF.

    Acquiring an above average SS will improve the team by a lot. You're going to have to get a top 10 3rd baseman (if not better) in the majors to improve 3rd base to give yourself anywhere near the improvement you would from just trading for a decent SS.

    I understand your point about it taking more resources to acquire a SS than a 3rd baseman, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I've said throughout the course of the thread even if the Reds acquire a guy like Escobar, I think they are still an impact bat away from being legit contenders. If the Reds can acquire a 3rd baseman who is an impact bat, I'd be all for it.

    However, for their careers:
    DeRosa: .278/.347/.425/.772
    Encarnacion: .261/.343/.445/.789

    For his career, DeRosa in 12 seasons has OPS'd above .800 twice. EE has done the same thing in 5 seasons. DeRosa's career OPS+ is 98, where as Edwin's is 101. DeRosa wouldn't have been worth the resources they would have given up if he was going to play 3rd base. Not to mention EE is 26 compared to DeRosa at 34. If the Reds would have acquire DeRosa they would have been best served to move Phillips to SS and play DeRosa at 2B. You would have filled your SS hole by acquiring a 2nd baseman.

    Focus on acquiring a SS who can hit and field. The less black holes you have in the lineup the better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Except you don't need that. You just need to find a SS that's better thsn Paul Janish or whichever utility player is chosen to play SS for the day. The Reds actually have a respectable starter at 3rd, making improving SS an easier task.
    Yes, the Reds would have to acquire a much better 3rd baseman to improve the team to the level by acquiring a halfway decent SS. I think that should kill the it would take more resources to acquire a SS than 3rd baseman.
    Last edited by reds44; 06-30-2009 at 12:01 AM.
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  13. #57
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The issue is, as always, cost and value to the team to acquire better players.

    Acquiring a SS that can hit and field would likely cost the team a fair amount of talent -- they're scarce prospects and teams that do successfully develop true SS prospects don't give them up easily.

    Acquiring a 3B that can hit and field, on the other hand, is usually a fair sight easier. Improving 3B to plus-defense and above-average offensive production would free the Reds to deploy a more defensive-oriented SS in their lineup -- either via someone in-house like Paul Janish or via a trade for a glove-ready SS prospect with some possible bat-upside (which teams are usually more willing to part with).

    The decision is really a no-brainer for me -- be on the lookout for a good deal to improve SS if a good opportunity comes along, but set your sights on improving 3B. Focus on talent you don't have to overpay to acquire.
    No, I focus on shortstop. We need to find our next long term answer there. That up the middle defense is essential, and he needs to be able to hit too. We need another Larkin or Concepcion to build the next Reds dynasty. I am surprsised we haven't tried to draft a top line shortstop the last couple years.

    Baseball America's 2009 Prospect Handbook lists the following as the Reds depth chart in the minors at short:
    1. Chris Valaika "Valaika continues to survive at shortstop, and has the bat to profile at 2nd base if he needs to move. Valaika doesn't have the quick feet clubs want at short, though his quick release and strong arm help make up for the lack of range..." Valaika is struggling badly at Louisville, hitting .194/.237/.310 for an OPS of .547. Chris was injured for much of May and the first half of June.
    2. Paul Cozart "Managers rated him the best fielding shortstop in the Midwest League in 2008..." Cozart is hitting very well at Carolina in AA ball, .287/.371/.454 for an OPS of .825.
    3. Paul Janish. We know about Paul, good glove, little hitting.

    In the 2009 draft, the first shortstop the Reds took was in the 2nd round, where we took Billy Hamilton. They have signed him, and he has been assigned to the GCL Reds. After five games, he is 8 for 20. He was only a high school player, so he will be several years away. Hamilton was ranked as the 99th best high school draft prospect, so the Reds reached to draft him in the second round.

    All of this simply goes to show that we need a shortstop. Cozart offers some hope, and I haven't given up on Valaika.
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  14. #58
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    I agree that updating EE with DeRosa is not that much of an upgrade, but mostly because DeRosa is not that much of a better defender than EE. I also agree that SS is a more important upgrade, since neither Janish nor Hairston are above replacement level at that position as a starter.

    However, I do think that if EE continues with the defense we have seen the last few years, he needs to be replaced. I really don't care that his bat equals out his glove according to UZR/150 or WAR, or any other stat.

    Not having a 3B who can make the regular plays puts too much stress on the pitching staff, which causes all sorts of problems that UZR or any current defensive stat can't measure. It's not just higher pitch counts, it's lack of confidence in your team's defense, and changing your pitching philosophy because of it.

    It's no coincidence that Cueto's confidence changed greatly this year. Sure part of it was just growing up, but i think a large part of it was him seeing that he could let the hitters hit the ball and his fielders would make the plays behind him.
    Owings really hasn't pitched that great, but has had decent results due to the teams solid defense behind him. And look at the relievers that have done well this year, Rhodes, Weathers, Herrera, Masset. None of them are striking guys out at a record pace, but they all have been throwing strikes and letting hitters get themselves out.

    You know the old saying, "A chain is only as strong as its weakest link." I really think that if EE was starting, and making the errors that we are used to, at the same rate as previous years, the Reds pitching staff would not have been nearly as successful, and some might have been much worse.

    Who knows, maybe EE puts it together and can play close to league average defense the rest of the year? But if he continues with 20+ errors as season, it will be hard for the Reds to compete. I personally think it would be very difficult for any team to contend all year with a starting infielder whose defense is that bad.
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  15. #59
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    No, I focus on shortstop. We need to find our next long term answer there. That up the middle defense is essential, and he needs to be able to hit too. We need another Larkin or Concepcion to build the next Reds dynasty. I am surprsised we haven't tried to draft a top line shortstop the last couple years.
    You're really answering your own question issue here, though.

    I don't disagree with the notion that the Reds need to find the next Larkin or Concepcion. I think you do exactly what you suggest, and what the Reds did with Larkin and Concepcion -- draft him or sign him as an international FA.

    Look at the top OPS performers at SS last season (min 350 PAs), and see how they were acquired by their various teams (bold indicates player was drafted and developed or signed and developed by his current team):

    1. Hanley Ramirez FLA -- Recieved from BOS as part of package for Josh Beckett / Mike Lowell
    2. Stephen Drew ARI -- Drafted by ARI
    3. Mike Alives KAS -- Drafted by KAS
    4. Jose Reyes NYM -- Signed and developed by NYM as an amatuer free agent
    5. JJ Hardy MIL -- Drafted by MIL
    6. Jhonny Peralta CLE -- Signed and developed by CLE as an amatuer free agent
    7. Alexei Ramirez CHW -- Signed as an amatuer free agent by CHW (Cuban defector)
    8. Jimmy Rollins PHI -- Drafted by PHI
    9. Christian Guzman WAS -- Signed as a FA
    10. Derek Jeter NYY -- Drafted by NYY
    11. Yunel Escobar ATL -- Drafted by ATL
    12. Ryan Theriot CHC -- Drafted by CHC
    13. Troy Tulowitzki COL -- Drafted by COL
    14. Miguel Tejada HOU -- Received via trade from BAL
    15. Nick Punto MIN -- Signed as a FA

    So, what does this list tell us? First of all, it tells us that if you want a top-flight shortstop, you better have a spare Cy Young candidate and World Series MVP sitting around, or you really need to think about investing heavily in the scouting department.

    I agree that the team should be focusing on acquiring a franchise shortstop, but the time to focus on that is in the buildup to the draft and/or in the international signing period IMO.
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 06-30-2009 at 02:30 AM.
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    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Reds looking for right handed bat

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    You're focusing on trying to improve a position that doesn't need improvement. Edwin is not the issue, SS is. Why spend talent to acquire a 3rd baseman when you already have an above average 3rd baseman? The Reds most obvious needs are 1. SS and 2. LF.

    Acquiring an above average SS will improve the team by a lot. You're going to have to get a top 10 3rd baseman (if not better) in the majors to improve 3rd base to give yourself anywhere near the improvement you would from just trading for a decent SS.

    I understand your point about it taking more resources to acquire a SS than a 3rd baseman, and I don't necessarily disagree with it. I've said throughout the course of the thread even if the Reds acquire a guy like Escobar, I think they are still an impact bat away from being legit contenders. If the Reds can acquire a 3rd baseman who is an impact bat, I'd be all for it.

    However, for their careers:
    DeRosa: .278/.347/.425/.772
    Encarnacion: .261/.343/.445/.789

    For his career, DeRosa in 12 seasons has OPS'd above .800 twice. EE has done the same thing in 5 seasons. DeRosa's career OPS+ is 98, where as Edwin's is 101. DeRosa wouldn't have been worth the resources they would have given up if he was going to play 3rd base. Not to mention EE is 26 compared to DeRosa at 34. If the Reds would have acquire DeRosa they would have been best served to move Phillips to SS and play DeRosa at 2B. You would have filled your SS hole by acquiring a 2nd baseman.

    Focus on acquiring a SS who can hit and field. The less black holes you have in the lineup the better.


    Yes, the Reds would have to acquire a much better 3rd baseman to improve the team to the level by acquiring a halfway decent SS. I think that should kill the it would take more resources to acquire a SS than 3rd baseman.

    My name is Ron Madden and I approve of this post.


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