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Thread: Good News / Bad News

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Good News / Bad News

    Over the past week, though it's been overshadowed by an inability to get runners in from third base, the Reds' offense has actually been doing rather well.

    In the past seven days, the Reds have a .791 OPS tied for fourth in the National League. This consists of an impressive .309 BA (2nd in the league during that period), solid .354 OBP and despite just two home runs, a good .436 slugging (4th in that timeframe).

    Now here's the only bad news:

    In that same amount of time, of the Reds' 84 baserunners acquired via hit or walk, only 29.8% of those runners have scored - which is only 12th in the league in success rate.

    So now the Reds are getting guys on base again, it's just a matter of converting those opportunities to runs.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #2
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Dusty warned us about this.

  4. #3
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Get them on, get them over, get them...(I can't say it).

    Just Get them.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    That's what happens when you have low slugging. Not enough EBH to cash in the guys on base.

  6. #5
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    The value of BA with RISP has been very controversial for quite awhile.

    Instinct tells us that it should matter. Games are won by scoring runs, most runs are scored by getting hits with men on base. Therefore, teams that have high BA with RISP will win more games than teams with low BA with RISP.

    While no one is really arguing against that point, many argue that stats show that most players with good BA with RISP are just good hitters, period, and that most players with low BA with RISP are just not good hitters period. Basically, there is very little difference between most hitters BA with RISP, and their overall BA.

    Because of this, it is more important to get good hitters, period, players with high OBP, who get on base, since then you will have more RISP. Since player's BA with RISP will even out over time, if you just have more RISP, you will score more runs, and win more games.

    I always took this for gospel, but I never saw any data on it. So I decided to do some research. I looked at every current MLB batter (276) with at least 2000 PA's, and figured out the difference between their overall BA and their BA with RISP. I was very surprised at the results.

    Here is an overview of that data collection:

    These are the numbers of players who's BA is 0-4 points different, 5-9 points different, 10-14 points different, and 15 or more points different.

    0-4

    63

    5-9
    65

    10-14
    58

    15+
    90

    So not only are there more hitters with a 10 point or more spread than those with less than a 10 point spread, but the largest group is the one with at least a 15 point spread. That group makes up nearly one third of all hitters.

    Maybe if I spent a week or so and did this with every MLB player ever with at least 2000 PA's, I would come up with different results. I don't have the time, but would welcome anyone who has links to something similar.

    Anyway, draw your own conclusions.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  7. #6
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    That's what happens when you have low slugging. Not enough EBH to cash in the guys on base.
    The Reds are 4th in the league in slugging in that period of time. In fact, they have 20 doubles in the past week - which leads the league by four doubles. In this past week: 2nd in BA, 4th in OBP, 4th in SLG and 4th in OPS.

    In this particular sample, truly, it's been hitting with runners in scoring position that has hurt the Reds.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #7
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    The Reds are 4th in the league in slugging in that period of time. In fact, they have 20 doubles in the past week - which leads the league by four doubles. In this past week: 2nd in BA, 4th in OBP, 4th in SLG and 4th in OPS.

    In this particular sample, truly, it's been hitting with runners in scoring position that has hurt the Reds.
    Incidental. Still too many bad hitters in the lineup doing too llittle, thus no runs, regardless of where baserunners happen to be when they are at the plate.

  9. #8
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Another stat: The Reds have a .551 OPS with the bases loaded. NL average is .764.

    It seems like it's becoming a daily occurence for the Reds to put a runner on third with less than two outs and not score. It's amazing how much that's happened this season.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #9
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Incidental. Still too many bad hitters in the lineup doing too llittle, thus no runs, regardless of where baserunners happen to be when they are at the plate.
    I don't see how it's incidental. I think getting runners on base and hitting for multiple bases at a time (slugging) are clearly important. But while this sample would most likely even out over time if the Reds continued to hit at this pace, it suggests timing does at least play a small part.

    I don't care the quality of the hitters. If the team were to continue hitting .300, getting on base at a .350 clip and slugging for .436, and otherwise still not scoring runs, then you have to start wondering why the runs are not coming in bunches.

    For starters, let me make it clear that I'm not suggesting this lineup is now fail-proof. What I'm suggesting is that in the past week or so, the Reds have been getting runners on base AND acquiring extra bases. The runs simply aren't tagging along. Mostly it's an issue of sample. But when the OBP and slugging are both there and you're not scoring runs... timing has to be the other explanation, right?

    This team won't sustain those numbers the rest of the season, obviously. It's just interesting to me that since Votto returned, the team is doing most of what people want it to do and it's still not scoring runs at a frenetic pace.

    Last point I'd like to make: I have been relatively pleased with the results the Reds have received since putting Dickerson at lead-off and Taveras in the 2-hole. While I'd rather see Taveras out of the lineup entirely, this modification seems to be for the better.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Small sample. I think the OBP could be a good indicator, regardless, but it's too early to say one way or the other.

  12. #11
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    I think OBI (others batted in) and OBI% are better stats because they tell you the frequency with which runs are plated. BA/RISP only tells you if someone gets a hit with runners in scoring position, not if a run scored.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #12
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I think OBI (others batted in) and OBI% are better stats because they tell you the frequency with which runs are plated. BA/RISP only tells you if someone gets a hit with runners in scoring position, not if a run scored.
    Agree.

    That's why I like my own RBI stat I've been using the last few years which is (RBI-HR) / (RBI+LOB). It's a ratio of runners driven in versus opportunities and does not hurt guys if they get on base without driving a batter in. It only hurts when you make an out.

    Incidently, Joey Votto continues to lead the Majors this year (.395) at this ratio. Albert Pujols (surprise surprise) is second. Pujols has led the NL each of the past few seasons hovering around .30.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  14. #13
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Dusty warned us about this.

  15. #14
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I don't see how it's incidental. I think getting runners on base and hitting for multiple bases at a time (slugging) are clearly important. But while this sample would most likely even out over time if the Reds continued to hit at this pace, it suggests timing does at least play a small part.

    I don't care the quality of the hitters. If the team were to continue hitting .300, getting on base at a .350 clip and slugging for .436, and otherwise still not scoring runs, then you have to start wondering why the runs are not coming in bunches.

    For starters, let me make it clear that I'm not suggesting this lineup is now fail-proof. What I'm suggesting is that in the past week or so, the Reds have been getting runners on base AND acquiring extra bases. The runs simply aren't tagging along. Mostly it's an issue of sample. But when the OBP and slugging are both there and you're not scoring runs... timing has to be the other explanation, right?

    This team won't sustain those numbers the rest of the season, obviously. It's just interesting to me that since Votto returned, the team is doing most of what people want it to do and it's still not scoring runs at a frenetic pace.

    Last point I'd like to make: I have been relatively pleased with the results the Reds have received since putting Dickerson at lead-off and Taveras in the 2-hole. While I'd rather see Taveras out of the lineup entirely, this modification seems to be for the better.
    Well, obviously its timing, but that really doesn't explain anything. Too few good hitters in the lineup is the problem, I imagine Votto has bumped the numbers up in the short run.

  16. #15
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Good News / Bad News

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Well, obviously its timing, but that really doesn't explain anything. Too few good hitters in the lineup is the problem, I imagine Votto has bumped the numbers up in the short run.
    I think it's not just him, but also his presence. I do think there's something to be said for having a hitter like that in your lineup. It certainly makes other hitters better around him (i.e. right now he is giving protection to Willy Taveras and Brandon Phillips has guys in front of him getting on base, etc.)
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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