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Thread: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

  1. #1
    Worth The Wait
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    Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    It might only take one folks...the Central and the NL in general is a parity party to say the least. The Dodgers are the only team where I can't find any obvious, major flaws, and we really aren't competing with them anyway.

    I think it is 100% possible that an 83-86 win team is going to make the playoffs this year-- maybe two. Not only is the Central wide open, but I don't see the Marlins, Mets, Giants, or Rockies running away with the wild card either.

    But I do think we'll need at least one legitimate hot streak if we stand a chance. We don't need anything historic, but we will need something like winning 9 of 11 or 10 of 13-- something in that neighborhood.

    But are we capable?

    At this point, I'm leaning towards a solid "no." I think we might simply be the most absolutely average baseball team that was ever assembled. Given our recent history, "painfully average" isn't such a bad thing-- especially if we do it behind a nice core of young players.

    But when you hit the midpoint of the season and you're as close in the standings as we are, you might as well dream a little.

    I don't think we even need to catch lighting in a bottle for the entire second half of the season-- maybe just for two weeks at the right time.

    Figure it like this.....Reds get hot/lucky for two weeks and rattle off 10 wins in 13 games. Right now, that would put us 7 games over .500 and on pace to win 84-85 games for the season. After that two week stretch we could completely fall back into the "win one, lose one" routine we're currently in and be perfectly fine.

    I think that's what keeps me really interested right now....not that I really think this team is a "conteder," but that even just one little hot streak could set us up for our first serious playoff run in 10 years.

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    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Reds have been riddled with bad luck and very very subpar/ limited performances from key offensive contributors (EE, JB, JV,WT)

    I think the offense is going to improve, greatly. If Bailey is for real, Volquez can come back and be a sub 4 ERA guys....they can do a lot.

    When things fall into place, I see them running quite a few series wins out there....with a few sweeps thrown in.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  4. #3
    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    If it happens, it'll happen against other Central opponents, which is good. I don't think this team is capable of running off a bunch of wins against the East or West. Can they? Sure. Any team can put it all together for two weeks. The question is whether they can continue to stop right on the brink of 4-5 game losing streaks. Otherwise a hot run won't matter.

    I'm circling the 4 game set at home with Milwaukee after the all star break. I think we'll learn a lot about this team in the second half from that. Tread water until the break and that's where the move can start.
    "I saw Wedding Crashers accidentally. I bought a ticket for Grizzly Man and went into the wrong theater. After an hour, I figured I was in the wrong theater, but I kept waiting. Thatís the thing about bear attacks. They come when you least expect it."-Dwight K. Schrute

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    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    If Volquez comes back healthy and pitches like he was before he got hurt (3.47 ERA, .99 WHIP, 8.0 K/9), and Bailey can pitch like he did in his last start at least half of the time, then that combined with Cueto and Harang holding steady for a few weeks, then yes.

    Hot streaks nearly always are based on the starting rotation getting hot. The Reds have the arms to go on a solid streak, so it is possible. Not sure how probable it is, but it is possible.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #5
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Quote Originally Posted by guttle11 View Post

    I'm circling the 4 game set at home with Milwaukee after the all star break. I think we'll learn a lot about this team in the second half from that. Tread water until the break and that's where the move can start.
    Totally agree- that's what I'm thinking as well. But I am a bit nervous about these 7 games prior to the break: 3-4 is the minimum acceptable for me to still feel good about our chances in the second half. I fear if we blow this road trip that it could spell lights out.

  7. #6
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    As of this morning the Reds have three teams ahead of them in their division and 5 teams ahead of them for the wild card. Also, the Reds just aren't all that good.

    The Reds are actually facing a pretty big climb.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #7
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    As of this morning the Reds have three teams ahead of them in their division and 5 teams ahead of them for the wild card. Also, the Reds just aren't all that good.

    The Reds are actually facing a pretty big climb.
    I agree that the REDS aren't that good. But neither is anyone else, really.
    Every team out there has some serious flaws.
    BP puts the REDS postseason odds today at 10.4%. That sounds realistic, I'd say. 10-1 is still a longshot, but you never know.
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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    As of this morning the Reds have three teams ahead of them in their division and 5 teams ahead of them for the wild card. Also, the Reds just aren't all that good.

    The Reds are actually facing a pretty big climb.
    Only b/c the Reds are in the NL Central are we remotely "contending".

    I have full faith that 2 weeks from now, we'll clearly be sellers before the deadline, and we'll see some desperately needed roster turnover.

    The worst thing this team could do is not make a move one way or another (adding pieces to make a run, or selling pieces to reshuffle for next year).

  10. #9
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    In a word no.

    Sure, anything can happen, yaneverknow, lady luck will shine and all that.

    There are just far too many holes on the team for them to blast off a long string of wins. There's too many below replacement/at replacement level players, too many guys who go into prolonged slumps, a couple of rookies trying to figure things out, and too many guys using up and/or giving away too many outs.

    Someone else suggested this a ways back, but my guess is they will win a couple, lose a couple, win a couple, lose a couple with probably a couple of skids tossed in for good measure. The reality, whether we want to face it or not, is we are fighting to be a .500 team, not for the WC or the division.

    There are just far too many stars that have to perfectaly align for us to be at the top of the heap come October. We can hope those stars align, but there's no reasonable expectation they will.

    And then you have "the Dusty factor". It's often said his weaknesses as a manager "only" cost us a game or three every year. Well.....will this be the year where that makes the difference between playing more games or going home? I tend to doubt it (only because we'll be more than 2 or 3 out) but if the division continues to limp along this might be the year where those 2 or 3 Dusty-disasters become really important.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  11. #10
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Only b/c the Reds are in the NL Central are we remotely "contending".

    I have full faith that 2 weeks from now, we'll clearly be sellers before the deadline, and we'll see some desperately needed roster turnover.

    The worst thing this team could do is not make a move one way or another (adding pieces to make a run, or selling pieces to reshuffle for next year).
    The NL East is worse, and unless one team does significant improvements by the deadline, I think the NL Central winner will be better than the East winner.

  12. #11
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    The NL East is worse, and unless one team does significant improvements by the deadline, I think the NL Central winner will be better than the East winner.
    On paper I like the Mets and the Phillies much better than anything the NL Central has to offer.

  13. #12
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    No.

    They have the pitching to do it but the need another plus bat.

  14. #13
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    Yes. Teams who pitch and field well are always capable of winning streaks during an offensive hot streak. A 15-5 run is certainly doable for a team that pitches well.

  15. #14
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    I dunno. It doesn't seem like they have the pitching or hitting. And when they maybe, barely, almost have the hitting, the defense suffers.

    That being said, they don't seem capable of prolonged cold streaks either. They've topped out their "streaks" at 4 games either won or lost.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #15
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    Re: Are We Capable of a Hot Streak?

    With our pitching if the bats get hot we can get on one of those 7 or 8 of 10 streaks I think would put us in major competition for a playoff spot. This team in the playoffs could be interesting with their pitching.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!


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