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View Poll Results: Which is the best trade for the Reds?

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  • To New York for RHP Phillip Hughes and C/1B/3B Jesus Montero

    4 9.09%
  • To Los Angeles for OF Matt Kemp

    24 54.55%
  • To Philadelphia for OF Michael Taylor and LHP J.A. Happ

    9 20.45%
  • To Milwaukee for SS Alcides Escobar and LHP Manny Parra

    7 15.91%
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Thread: Return on Harang

  1. #1
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    Return on Harang

    I have been a strong opponent of dealing Aaron Harang in recent weeks. However, with the Reds' recent performance and Bronson Arroyo's implosion, it is becoming more and more evident that Harang will end up on the trading block as we approach the end of the month. Given the Halladay rumors/thread and the Harang/Kemp thread, I was thinking about potential suitors and a proper return. Published reports seem to indicate the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers are the most interested parties in acquiring a player like Harang (the Rangers likely can't afford his contract.) So my question is this- what do you look for in a realistic return for Harang at this point? Which one of the above deals would you like best? Are they too much or too little for a workhorse like Harang? Keep in mind this appears to be a sellers' market, and the losers of the Halladay derby may be inclined to overpay. Is there any way the Reds would deal with Milwaukee and keep him in the division?

    EDIT: I should have added a fifth and sixth option:

    5. ALL OF THE ABOVE
    6. NONE OF THE ABOVE

    Feel free to include these in text below.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-07-2009 at 12:08 PM.
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  3. #2
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    Re: Return on Harang

    The Phillies would never give up that package in return.

  4. #3
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    Brewers wouldn't either. Escobar is "untouchable", or so they say.

  5. #4
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    The best trade for the Reds is the one to the Brewers.

    I'm not sure how good that trade is for the Brewers though.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  6. #5
    I'm gettin paper Homer Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    The Yanks weren't willing to give up Hughes to get Johan. I seriously doubt they would be willing to give him up to get Harang.

  7. #6
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    Re: Return on Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    The Yanks weren't willing to give up Hughes to get Johan. I seriously doubt they would be willing to give him up to get Harang.
    As has been pointed out countless times, that's faulty logic. That was over a year ago, and things have changed.

    (See the Reds refusal to trade Pokey Reese for KGJ as an example of this logic)
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  8. #7
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    Re: Return on Harang

    All of the above are solid options, but I think I take the safe bet and get the known commodity in Kemp. With acquiring Kemp we could roll into 2010 with this outfield:

    LF-Kemp
    RF-Bruce
    CF-Dickerson/Taveres/Stubbs

    Rotation
    1)Cueto
    2)Volquez
    3)Owings
    4)Arroyo-we wont be able to unload!!!!
    5)Bailey

  9. #8
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    Re: Return on Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by schroomytunes View Post
    All of the above are solid options, but I think I take the safe bet and get the known commodity in Kemp. With acquiring Kemp we could roll into 2010 with this outfield:

    LF-Kemp
    RF-Bruce
    CF-Dickerson/Taveres/Stubbs

    Rotation
    1)Cueto
    2)Volquez
    3)Owings
    4)Arroyo-we wont be able to unload!!!!
    5)Bailey
    No offense, but I don't think any team can expect to compete with Owings as their #3, especially with the modern-day Arroyo as their #4. IMO, the Reds probably need to fetch at least one young starter back in a deal for Harang. If not, they will need to sign someone to occupy that role.
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  10. #9
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    I'm not sure any team on your list would be willing to give up the players you list. I wish they would

  11. #10
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    I can't see anyone other than possibly the Dodgers who would be willing to do a deal like that.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #11
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    No offense, but I don't think any team can expect to compete with Owings as their #3, especially with the modern-day Arroyo as their #4. IMO, the Reds probably need to fetch at least one young starter back in a deal for Harang. If not, they will need to sign someone to occupy that role.
    Not so. If you want to put numbers on starters then that is fine. IMO if Bailey continues to develop then Owings wouldn't be the #3 starter, rather a 4 or 5. We are also assuming that Arroyo continues to stink and doesn't bounce back, which he has done every year he is a Red.

  13. #12
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    Re: Return on Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Not so. If you want to put numbers on starters then that is fine. IMO if Bailey continues to develop then Owings wouldn't be the #3 starter, rather a 4 or 5. We are also assuming that Arroyo continues to stink and doesn't bounce back, which he has done every year he is a Red.
    Trust me, I hope you're right. I just think it's pretty risky to take Harang out of the equation, replace him with nothing, and expect to contend for a WS title next year. I really hope that Bailey continues to develop and progress, but relying on him to be your #3 guy next year (especially in a potential playoff series) is quite the risky proposition, especially at this stage in the game.

    The Reds got very lucky last year when they relied on two rookies to be mid-rotation guys, and even with a guy like Dunn powering the offense the rookies' success still didn't get them to the playoffs (let alone through it.) Usually that reliance on young, unproven arms to be stalwarts in the rotation doesn't work out and can explode in your face, and I would cite 2000-2007 as evidence: Remember when Jose Acevedo was supposed to be the #2?
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-07-2009 at 01:01 PM.
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  14. #13
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    Re: Return on Harang

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'm not sure any team on your list would be willing to give up the players you list. I wish they would
    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    I can't see anyone other than possibly the Dodgers who would be willing to do a deal like that.
    If they aren't, then I'm not trading Harang. That's all there is to it.
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  15. #14
    On the brink of disaster acredsfan's Avatar
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    Re: Return on Harang

    I'm not even thinking of dealing anyone until we are 5 games out, especially since we are thin enough with starters. Volquez is on the DL, I can't see how they will keep Arroyo active if his trend continues, and Cueto is sketchy just because he had back trouble in his last start and bombed yesterday. The Reds are still in contention in a very weak division, I don't see why you would give up your shot at the playoffs even if it is only around 10%.

    People always want to say baseball is a business and you have to build for the future, but business is always about money. Most business people will take a shot at more money now, rather than the chance of money later. If we sell out better players and throw in the towel, revenues at the park are going to fall along with giving up your shot at hosting some post season games, which would be a big boost to the wallets of the owners. Lets face it, more revenue this year means more money next year.

    You can argue all you want that we are better set up for a run in the future, but that depends on a TON of variables. Health, consistent perfromance from prospects translating to the bigs, and many other things that you just can't guarantee over a long period of time. As long as we have the slightest chance this year you have to ride this for all it's worth. A shot at this season also means you have to have a veteran who can eat innings and give you a better shot at winning than Maloney, Owings, and Arroyo, and guess who that is. Aaron Harang is vital to this ownership group's chance at making more money.

    This isn't to say that if the right deal came along that would fill the void left by Harang he shouldn't be traded, but that is very unlikely. Consider the fact that even if you got a bat like Kemp, you would more than likely be replacing Harang's sub 4 ERA with someone like Maloney's 6+ ERA. That makes almost a 2.5 run differential that even with the one extra bat in the lineup, it would be impossible to overcome every 5th day. Lets also remember that Harang will probably be no problem to trade after the deadline because teams are cautious to pick up his salary, so we would probably hold more bargaining power when the races are more definitive and someone needs a very effective starter.

    Sorry for rambling on, but I'm just presenting a realistic counter argument besides I don't want to trade this player because I like him, or trade this player because he sucks right now.
    Last edited by acredsfan; 07-07-2009 at 01:05 PM.
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  16. #15
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    Re: Return on Harang

    The Reds might as well trade Harang. A few years ago, they signed Harang and Arroyo, it was unanimous on RedsZone -- even for those who had issues with these deals -- that the Reds finally had a couple of bona fide major league starters which could yield more success.

    Now, here we are, and the Reds have had these good pitchers and have still failed to win. The front office has slowly and cautiously moved the team incrementally toward, maybe, a .500 year if they hold on.

    So, soon Harang and Arroyo will probably be gone and there will be another period of optimism based on a new round of a few good players and some prospects in Carolina or Dayton.

    They did have two major assets in this period, Dunn and Griffey who earned meaningful dollars. The Reds held them until they had little value, got a decent return, but failed to redeploy the cost savings of eliminating these contracts into acquisitions of new proven talent.

    The same will happen with the next round of "good, solid pitchers" and a couple of good hitters like Votto. It's a never ending cycle unless at some point you make the bold moves to add high level talent and try to win.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-07-2009 at 01:16 PM.


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