Reds Top Prospects- Midseason Edition

[Mario-Rijo]

I think it all depends on what you expectation for D-Mes (I like that) are. D-Mes was a HS catcher drafted from a small town northern (Puxatony) city. Throw in that he was coming off surgery (TJ I believe) and you have a huge prospect. I don't remember a lot of people saying he was drafted way too high and was a later round prospect. I think most admit that he may have been a reach, but IIRC he was a fast riser coming into the draft.

Everything I mention leads me to believe that he had all the raw tools to become a very good catcher, but was on track for a long developmental process. D-Mes is the kind of prospect that I won't rank but won't give up on. If he would have gone the college route next year would have been his Jr. year. After this season you may get a little more information about how he projects as a catcher but I am still going to hold off judgment until next season at the earliest.

I think this is a part of the equation that people seem to forget when talking about his particular development. As we all know kids playing in the north have much less developmental time due to the fact they don't have the luxury of playing year around what with the weather factor. Then you get a kid who lost at least an entire year of HS (if not more) with a serious injury. Yet he still manages to play well enough in his senior year to garner enough attention to get drafted in the 1st round of the draft on his talent level alone.

So then he comes straight into pro ball vastly behind the curve developmentally, plays with 2 injured thumbs and does poorly and we are surprised by that?! Then skips an entire level that he obviously needed and held his own offensively IMO for a catcher who again shouldn't be at that level. Comes into this season and gets to work improving his defense and his plate discipline might I add by leaps and bounds at yet again another level he shouldn't quite be at and in an environment that supresses offense & some are questioning if he will be a bust?

Please people those are not excuses but extremely legitimate reasons why anyone would struggle to put up gargantuan numbers. When you are behind the curve from the start, challenged more than any prospect in recent memory at a position that is notoriously slow developmentally and you are still making positive strides. I'd say for the circumstances he is doing an excellent job of developing. IMO what we have here is a starting catcher in the making and I have yet to see any reasonable argument to the contrary.

[mace]

I think this is a part of the equation that people seem to forget when talking about his particular development. As we all know kids playing in the north have much less developmental time due to the fact they don't have the luxury of playing year around what with the weather factor. Then you get a kid who lost at least an entire year of HS (if not more) with a serious injury. Yet he still manages to play well enough in his senior year to garner enough attention to get drafted in the 1st round of the draft on his talent level alone.

So then he comes straight into pro ball vastly behind the curve developmentally, plays with 2 injured thumbs and does poorly and we are surprised by that?! Then skips an entire level that he obviously needed and held his own offensively IMO for a catcher who again shouldn't be at that level. Comes into this season and gets to work improving his defense and his plate discipline might I add by leaps and bounds at yet again another level he shouldn't quite be at and in an environment that supresses offense & some are questioning if he will be a bust?

Please people those are not excuses but extremely legitimate reasons why anyone would struggle to put up gargantuan numbers. When you are behind the curve from the start, challenged more than any prospect in recent memory at a position that is notoriously slow developmentally and you are still making positive strides. I'd say for the circumstances he is doing an excellent job of developing. IMO what we have here is a starting catcher in the making and I have yet to see any reasonable argument to the contrary.

You make some excellent points here, M-R. I haven't considered Mesoraco among the top prospects in the organization, but your argument provides a reason to rethink that.

[HBP]

I am not concerned with the numbers anyone doesn't put up in the FSL as long as their peripherals look solid. His do.

I for one am and I bet the Reds aren't so enamored with his performance thus far either.

Please people those are not excuses but extremely legitimate reasons why anyone would struggle to put up gargantuan numbers.

I don't think anyone is expecting huge numbers, just looking for anything to show he's improving with the bat.

[Benihana]

I for one am and I bet the Reds aren't so enamored with his performance thus far either.



I don't think anyone is expecting huge numbers, just looking for anything to show he's improving with the bat.

x 2.

I find these arguments pretty ridiculous. On the one hand, some people are arguing to stop worrying about whether he's a bust and attaching unfair expectations to him because of where he was drafted. On the other, people are defending his performance, showing confidence in him only because of where he was drafted.

All you have to do is ask yourself this: if he wasn't a first round pick, would his performance thus far (including all the "improvements" you speak of) put him on anyone's prospect radar? I think not.

[camisadelgolf]

x 2.

I find these arguments pretty ridiculous. On the one hand, some people are arguing to stop worrying about whether he's a bust and attaching unfair expectations to him because of where he was drafted. On the other, people are defending his performance, showing confidence in him only because of where he was drafted.

All you have to do is ask yourself this: if he wasn't a first round pick, would his performance thus far (including all the "improvements" you speak of) put him on anyone's prospect radar? I think not.

Drew Stubbs might be this forum's favorite minor leaguer if he weren't drafted in the first round. He plays exceptional defense, gets on base at a high rate, and steals bases very effectively. Even if Chris Heisey were drafted in the first round, people would find ways to be disappointed with the pick so far.

[Benihana]

Drew Stubbs might be this forum's favorite minor leaguer if he weren't drafted in the first round. He plays exceptional defense, gets on base at a high rate, and steals bases very effectively.

Disagree. I don't see much pining for Felix Pie around these parts. He does pretty much all of those things you said, slugs significantly better, and entered the majors three years younger than what Stubbs is now.

Even if Chris Heisey were drafted in the first round, people would find ways to be disappointed with the pick so far.

Also disagree. This year, Heisey is putting up better numbers than Jay Bruce did in the minors. True, he is a few years older than Bruce was, but I don't recall many people finding ways to be disappointed with Bruce (who was a first round pick) when he was discussed down in this forum.

--

However, it is true that most people judge prospects based off of where they were drafted. And my point is that right now, Mesoraco looks disappointing whether you do (he has underperformed as a first round pick) or you don't (he wouldn't be considered a serious prospect with his current production if not for his draft status.)

[dougdirt]

On the other, people are defending his performance, showing confidence in him only because of where he was drafted.

All you have to do is ask yourself this: if he wasn't a first round pick, would his performance thus far (including all the "improvements" you speak of) put him on anyone's prospect radar? I think not.

If he wasn't a first rounder but still had the same tools he does have? Then yes, he would be on peoples radar. I am not sure there has been anyone defending his performance because he was a first rounder. I think its because, at least in my case, he has shown strong secondary skills at the plate that are likely to move forward with him. As for his defensive improvements, I think they largely speak for themselves.

[Benihana]

If he wasn't a first rounder but still had the same tools he does have? Then yes, he would be on peoples radar. I am not sure there has been anyone defending his performance because he was a first rounder. I think its because, at least in my case, he has shown strong secondary skills at the plate that are likely to move forward with him. As for his defensive improvements, I think they largely speak for themselves.

I'm not sure scouts all over baseball are currently drooling over Mesoraco's "tools."

[camisadelgolf]

Disagree. I don't see much pining for Felix Pie around these parts. He does pretty much all of those things you said, slugs significantly better, and entered the majors three years younger than what Stubbs is now.

Why would we pine for Pie when we already have Stubbs (and Heisey)? Stubbs is a much better defender, runs the bases much better, and gets on base more. True, he slugs less, but he compensates for that with other parts of his game. And remember when catching was a glaring weakness for the Reds? Around that time, people wouldn't shut up about Taylor Teagarden.

Also disagree. This year, Heisey is putting up better numbers than Jay Bruce did in the minors. True, he is a few years older than Bruce was, but I don't recall many people finding ways to be disappointed with Bruce (who was a first round pick) when he was discussed down in this forum.

Okay, that's a very good point. I should have said that some people have a bias against Stubbs because he's not the player RZ wanted to be drafted in draft slot.

However, it is true that most people judge prospects based off of where they were drafted. And my point is that right now, Mesoraco looks disappointing whether you do (he has underperformed as a first round pick) or you don't (he wouldn't be considered a serious prospect with his current production if not for his draft status.)

I agree for the most part. I think Mesoraco'd still be a serious prospect, but he'd be a bit of a dark horse.

[dougdirt]

I'm not sure scouts all over baseball are currently drooling over Mesoraco's "tools."

Drooling over them? No. He isn't Matt Wieters, Buster Posey or Carlos Santana. He has good tools though, especially as a catcher. He has some pop although some remains in the raw power department. He has a good arm. He has soft hands behind the plate. He has good feet.

[Benihana]

Drooling over them? No. He isn't Matt Wieters, Buster Posey or Carlos Santana.

Or Jason Castro.
Or JP Arenciba.
Or Jeff Clement.
Or Hank Conger.
Or Brandon Snyder.
Or just about any of the other catchers drafted in the first round in the last 5 years.

In fact, in looking at all of the catchers drafted in the first round since 2005, only Maxwell Sapp has put up as dismal of a career performance as Mesoraco has at his age- and Sapp is still a few months younger. But, oh, those tools!


OK, I'm done ripping Devin. I hope he kills it the rest of this season, and pulls a Travis Wood when he repeats the league next year. All I'm saying is that until he gives me a reason to keep him on The Top 15 Prospects list for the Reds organization, his production (or lack of it) has him in grave danger of falling off the list. My list (and others like it) combines ceiling with likelihood (and proximity) of reaching that ceiling in order to prioritize and rank payers. At this stage in the game, Mesoraco's combination of those attributes leaves a lot to be desired. That said, he definitely does have plenty of time to correct that before he falls into the organizational fodder category.

[dougdirt]

Or Jason Castro.
Or JP Arenciba.
Or Jeff Clement.
Or Hank Conger.
Or Brandon Snyder.
Or just about any of the other catchers drafted in the first round in the last 5 years.

Jason Castro is a top 50 prospect in all of baseball. I don't think anyone is suggesting Devin is on that level at all, especially right now.

Arencibia may have some tools but he is Juan Francisco with a little more contact and not nearly as much power. He may be able to get away with a sub .300 OBP because he is a catcher but lets not put him on some high level like he is something special. He can hit the ball a mile when he gets into one, but he has the plate approach of Juan Francisco without the power. Defensively he isn't any better than Mesoraco is, the difference is that Mesoraco has gotten a lot better while Arencibia has stayed about the same defensively for the last 2+ years.

Jeff Clement is an interesting case. He hits the cover off the ball in the minors but has really struggled in the majors. Defensively I am not sure he is better than Mesoraco is either.

Hank Conger can hit, but he has never been viewed as a catcher in the past. The stats look good this year though behind the plate. I might have to actually shoot an email to a guy who scouts the TL after this and get a report on him to see if he has truly improved and how much.


Brandon Snyder hasn't caught a single game since 2006. Why is he in this discussion?

The only guy you even named that wasn't a college catcher was Conger. While he may have run for President (real funny video he made, might still be on youtube) he is the only guy you have named so far that is really a comparable guy.

Devin's skillset right now, where are the problems with it? Don't tell me about his numbers that are influenced by luck, tell me about his skills. Tell me that he doesn't do this well enough or he does this ok.


You can talk about performance all you want, but how many times have you seen him play this year? How many people have you talked to who have seen him play this year? You are talking about results, not what has gone into acquiring those results, the skills that he uses on the field. Those are what project forward, not the fact that he has a BABIP under .270 despite a high line drive rate that has sapped his slash line.

[Benihana]

You can talk about performance all you want, but how many times have you seen him play this year? How many people have you talked to who have seen him play this year? You are talking about results, not what has gone into acquiring those results, the skills that he uses on the field. Those are what project forward, not the fact that he has a BABIP under .270 despite a high line drive rate that has sapped his slash line.

Oh boy.

Isn't this the exact opposite argument to what you made when we discussed Stillwell and Larkin? You claimed that it didn't matter that you weren't old enough to see them play or hear first-hand accounts at the time because you can read their stat lines to know how they were going to project.

I said on my last post that I'm done ripping Devin- at least for the time being, so I'm not going to address your other concerns. I'm rooting (and rooting hard) for the kid, but how he performs going forward remains to be seen. I hope I'm wrong and you're right. There is still plenty of time for him. We will see...

[dougdirt]

Oh boy.

Isn't this the exact opposite argument to what you made when we discussed Stillwell and Larkin? You claimed that it didn't matter that you weren't old enough to see them play or hear first-hand accounts at the time because you can read their stat lines to know how they were going to project.

I could read their stat lines to determine their skillsets at that time. Stillwell could walk and make very weak contact. His stats suggested that because his IsoP was terrible and his walk rate was good. So no, its not even close to the same thing.

Mesoraco walks plenty. He doesn't have a strikeout problem. He has a solid IsoP. His defense has made great strides in the last year and particularly in the last few months. Those are all skills that can be seen in the secondary stat lines. You aren't looking at those. You are looking at slash lines that are being heavily influenced by a low BABIP despite solid to better peripherals.

[Kingspoint]

All I'm saying is that until he gives me a reason to keep him on The Top 15 Prospects list for the Reds organization, his production (or lack of it) has him in grave danger of falling off the list. My list (and others like it) combines ceiling with likelihood (and proximity) of reaching that ceiling in order to prioritize and rank payers. At this stage in the game, Mesoraco's combination of those attributes leaves a lot to be desired. That said, he definitely does have plenty of time to correct that before he falls into the organizational fodder category.

That's a fair assessment. When he's ready for the Majors on a daily basis, we won't even recognize the big-league club from what it is now to what it will be then. That is a long time from now.