Originally Posted by dougdirt
Doug fought the tough fight for Stubbs as well, and I think he has been pretty spot on with Stubbs. I never thought DS would make it as far as he has, to the point where he is knocking down the door (with Heisey) for a call up.
I'm as low on DM as I was DS, but I will take doug at his word that he has seen significant improvement from DM, and hopefully he will reach his potential.
A difference with Stubbs and Mesoraco is that Stubbs put up some very impressive numbers while at Texas, so we had seen at least some production out of him. We've never seen Mesoraco ever put up any eye popping stats to help us figure out why he was a 1st rounder like Bailey, Bruce, Stubbs, Alonso, and Leake have. I hope he makes it eventually, I just don't see a great chance of that happening right now.
Going from the MWL to the FSL is one of the biggest transitions in the minors. If Mesoraco were OPSing ~.800 for Dayton, many of us would wonder what he has to do to get a promotion and dub him the Reds' catcher of the future. As many have already said, it's just way too early to make a judgment.
He also "fought the tough fight" for Adam Rosales, Sean Watson and just about every other minor leaguer that the Reds have ever drafted since he's been old enough to remember. Not trying to knock Doug specifically, but no one is always right- blind trust won't get you very far in baseball or in life. There is at least one other actual professional on this board that has repeatedly stated that many professionals both inside and outside the organization think that Mesoraco was an enormous mistake.
Obviously, I'm as hard on Mesoraco as anyone, but I've also gone on record predicting (read: hoping for) a big month out of him. It remains to be seen whether he can fulfill that prediction (it was more of a random one than anything), but like I said in the initial post of this thread, time for Mesoraco as a "Top Prospect" is running out- not because of his age or level but due to his complete lack of production. If he was drafted even one round later than he was, he wouldn't be on anyone's prospect radar at this point. Sure he could still make the majors one day- the timetable on catchers is longer than any other position- but unless he starts hitting much more than he has at any point in his professional career, he cannot continue to be considered a "Top Prospect." His draft pedigree can only carry him so far.
As for comparing his errors to other catchers in the league, how many of those catchers have yet to OPS over .710 in their professional careers? How many of them were drafted as high as Mesoraco? Since when is errors the best indication (and forecast) of catching defense? And finally, why in the world should we be happy if Mesoraco is an average catcher in the Florida State League?
I don't know about your expectations, but I don't like seeing my first round pick two years removed as an average to below average player relative to others at his position in A ball. If Mesoraco cannot pull his OPS at least over the .750 mark for the year or suddenly become the best defensive catcher in the league, he can no longer be considered a "Top Prospect" IMO.
Last edited by Benihana; 07-10-2009 at 09:48 AM.
Go BLUE!!!
At some point, you have to let go of the enormous expectations that fall disproportionately on 1st round picks and scale back on the proclamations, pro and con. These players are who they are, and what becomes of them takes several years to reveal. We know far more about Stubbs now then we did 2 years ago. He looks to be somewhere in between the poles of the debate that defined him on this board. We know far more about Bailey than we did 6 months ago. He appears to be well ahead of where most of this board would have charted him. We know far more about Bruce now than we did 1 year ago. He appears to be well behind where the majority of the board would have guessed he'd be now. Are these guys "what you want" out of a 1st rounder? What's the template? I'd say there is none, and so long as you get something out of your top pick, you can't get bent out of shape.I don't know about your expectations, but I don't like seeing my first round pick two years removed as an average to below average player relative to others at his position in A ball. If Mesoraco cannot pull his OPS at least over the .750 mark for the year or suddenly become the best defensive catcher in the league, he can no longer be considered a "Top Prospect."
Mesoraco has time, no matter what. What he ends up being is not going to be fully apparent for years, and it has nothing to do with what round he was drafted in.
I don't disagree.
However, a big part of this forum is "prospecting" these guys as they progress. Otherwise, you could stop paying attention to anything that happens at the minor league levels and just wait to see who shows up in Cincinnati in five years and who doesn't (much like what was done years ago before the internet/information age took over and allowed fans to follow this stuff.)
Are these things dynamic? Absolutely. Could D-Mes become a starting catcher in the major leagues one day? No question about it. However, are we happy with his development so far? I don't know about you, but I'm disappointed. That's not to say that things can't change, but if I had to evaluate him as it stands right now (which is the point of this thread), I'd rate him as "Underperforming." That said, I certainly hope he repeats Sarasota next year and "Outperforms" his new set of expectations, which includes outperforming Kevin Coddington- who has emerged as an interesting comparable to follow.
Go BLUE!!!
Absolutely. That's well said. I think my point is that at some point it becomes more interesting to evaluate what the player is actually doing than to take sides in a "bust or not?" context. People take a long time to "get over" their excitement or disappointment in a particular player being chosen first. Once that happens, you start to be able to see the player more clearly.However, a big part of this forum is "prospecting" these guys as they progress. Otherwise, you could stop paying attention to anything that happens at the minor league levels and just wait to see who shows up in Cincinnati in five years and who doesn't (much like what was done years ago before the internet/information age took over and allowed fans to follow this stuff.)
Are these things dynamic? Absolutely. Could D-Mes become a starting catcher in the major leagues one day? No question about it. However, are we happy with his development so far? I don't know about you, but I'm disappointed. That's not to say that things can't change, but if I had to evaluate him as it stands right now (which is the point of this thread), I'd rate him as "Underperforming." That said, I certainly hope he repeats Sarasota next year and "Outperforms" his new set of expectations, including outperforming Kevin Coddington, who has become an interesting comparable to follow.
Votto seems to have decent range at 1b- could he play 3b once Alonso gets called up to the big leagues (barring a trade)? I dont know that he could possibly be worse than Encarnacion defensively, and his bat would for sure play at 3b.
I've actually thought about that possibility. Votto was actually drafted as a C/3B, but I'm sure there was a reason he was moved to 1B...
Go BLUE!!!
I think it all depends on what you expectation for D-Mes (I like that) are. D-Mes was a HS catcher drafted from a small town northern (Puxatony) city. Throw in that he was coming off surgery (TJ I believe) and you have a huge prospect. I don't remember a lot of people saying he was drafted way too high and was a later round prospect. I think most admit that he may have been a reach, but IIRC he was a fast riser coming into the draft.
Everything I mention leads me to believe that he had all the raw tools to become a very good catcher, but was on track for a long developmental process. D-Mes is the kind of prospect that I won't rank but won't give up on. If he would have gone the college route next year would have been his Jr. year. After this season you may get a little more information about how he projects as a catcher but I am still going to hold off judgment until next season at the earliest.
Here is what I see with Mesoraco in my scouting report (I keep files and notes on just about every prospect we have.... tons of stuff on these guys).
Hitting
Mesoraco shows the secondary skills he needs to have success, especially as a catcher. He has solid plate discipline at a young age, although a little more contact would be ideal. He has some pop in his bat thats going to start showing up in the next year in the HR department.
Physical
This year he has a much different body than he did last year. While there was a comment floating around that he was 'pudgy' or something like that, he wasn't. Still, he had a body of a big teenager and not exactly a man's body. He grew a little bit this offseason and has himself a man's body now. He has good feet and quick hands, but is still learning to use them behind the plate. Big strides have been made.
Catching
Like noted above, he has the hands and the feet to be an above average catcher. It has taken a while longer than expected to see the results that his HS scouting report suggested he was, but it looks like we may be reaching that time table where its here. He not only is blocking pitches in the dirt these days, he is catching them and backhanding them. He is also throwing out runners at an extremely high rate over the past two months. Time will tell if that holds up, but its certainly something that has gone from a poor skill to a very good one in short order.
Thats where my current scouting report on Mesoraco sits at. I think sometimes we forget just how difficult it is to be a catcher, much less at age 20 (just turned 21 2 weeks ago).
BTW, Minor League Splits has this little tool called 'luck factor' that 'corrects' a players numbers based on his batted ball types. Clicking it on Mesoraco suggests he should be at .268/.359/.422.
Lets hope your right Doug. The good news is that he has plenty of games left this season to put up some better numbers.
I am not concerned with the numbers anyone doesn't put up in the FSL as long as their peripherals look solid. His do.
Doug, I have to say I appreciate your thorough assessments. They always seem fairly even handed and look at plusses and minuses. Like anyone, you have particular players that you like, but I think you have given a good assessment of where Mesocraco currently is.
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Catchers don't "fly" through the minor leagues. It takes much longer to develop them. As raw as Mesoraco was, you can add another year to that.
There's no shame or negativitly for Mesoraco to take 6 full seasons in the Minors and still be considered to be on pace for the Majors and for the REDS to be justified to have drafted him in the 1st Round. I don't see him going to AAA until 2012 at the earliest and the Majors until 2013 at the earliest, and that would be the timeline that I would have had for him the day I drafted him.
He's performing exactly as what would have been projected of him. Look at him month-by-month, not year-by-year and you'll see a lot of growth.
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