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Thread: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

  1. #16
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think he can be better than Joey Votto offensively given Joey Votto having normal luck on balls in play. Votto is a very good hitter, but he isn't a .350/.440/.600 hitter. He is more of a .290/.375/.525 hitter, perhaps slightly better at his peak. I think Alonso can be better than that offensively at his peak.
    I think Votto is what he is until he proves he isn't.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #17
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I think Votto is what he is until he proves he isn't.
    If you think he is going to be the historical outlier to have a BABIP over .400 for his career you can keep thinking that. I simply can't do that.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think he can be better than Joey Votto offensively given Joey Votto having normal luck on balls in play. Votto is a very good hitter, but he isn't a .350/.440/.600 hitter. He is more of a .290/.375/.525 hitter, perhaps slightly better at his peak. I think Alonso can be better than that offensively at his peak.
    Wow. I just don't buy this. This entire season Votto has hit the ball hard, real hard. He doesn't get cheated at the plate and often puts good solid swings on the ball with a 2 strike count. I fully understand where BABIP can be a usefull stat, but there is a reason why certain players have a higher BABIP than normal and it isn't just luck.

    Im with TRF. Votto is what he is, until he proves he isn't.

  5. #19
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Wow. I just don't buy this. This entire season Votto has hit the ball hard, real hard. He doesn't get cheated at the plate and often puts good solid swings on the ball with a 2 strike count. I fully understand where BABIP can be a usefull stat, but there is a reason why certain players have a higher BABIP than normal and it isn't just luck.

    Im with TRF. Votto is what he is, until he proves he isn't.
    Albert Pujols does the exact same thing. He isn't sporting a .400 BABIP. No one ever has over a career. There is a reason for it.... its just not possible. Sure, its not entirely luck with Votto that his BABIP is higher than normal, but it is absolutely 100% luck that its over .400 right now. If he were in the .310-.325 range his OPS would be in the of .885-.915 if he lost just 1 double and the rest singles to keep that BABIP.

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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Wow. I just don't buy this. This entire season Votto has hit the ball hard, real hard. He doesn't get cheated at the plate and often puts good solid swings on the ball with a 2 strike count. I fully understand where BABIP can be a usefull stat, but there is a reason why certain players have a higher BABIP than normal and it isn't just luck.

    Im with TRF. Votto is what he is, until he proves he isn't.
    I'll second that. Take Bruce as the counter-example and his unbelievably low BABIP. Its not all bad luck that is producing that number. Bruce is just a pure fly-ball hitter this year. He seems to pop up to the outfield on every out. He isnt driving the ball like Votto, he is getting under the ball.

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Pony Boy View Post
    I'll second that. Take Bruce as the counter-example and his unbelievably low BABIP. Its not all bad luck that is producing that number. Bruce is just a pure fly-ball hitter this year. He seems to pop up to the outfield on every out. He isnt driving the ball like Votto, he is getting under the ball.
    Joey Votto isn't a statistical outlier. He isn't a better hitter of the baseball than a guy like Albert Pujols is. He just isn't. Pujols has a career .317 BABIP, which is higher than league average because he simply is just a little bit better than most everyone else. Ignore facts if you like because they suggest something you don't want to believe, but I just can't get behind that regardless of how much I want to hope Votto is a 1.050 OPS player.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Joey Votto isn't a statistical outlier. He isn't a better hitter of the baseball than a guy like Albert Pujols is. He just isn't. Pujols has a career .317 BABIP, which is higher than league average because he simply is just a little bit better than most everyone else. Ignore facts if you like because they suggest something you don't want to believe, but I just can't get behind that regardless of how much I want to hope Votto is a 1.050 OPS player.
    Albert Pujols > Votto. But I also think because of reputation Votto will see more better pitches that Pujols will. Pitchers don't want Pujols to beat them, Votto just doesn't have that kind of respect right now. That could be a big reason why Votto has a much higher BABIP than Pujols. Will Votto's numbers regress as the season goes along? quite possibly. But according to a scout
    "He gets better every time I see him. I think he is going to contend for a batting title one of these year, and he hasnít maxed out his power potential, either."
    Maybe Votto isn't a 1.050 OPS player, but then again, maybe he is.

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Albert Pujols > Votto. But I also think because of reputation Votto will see more better pitches that Pujols will. Pitchers don't want Pujols to beat them, Votto just doesn't have that kind of respect right now. That could be a big reason why Votto has a much higher BABIP than Pujols. Will Votto's numbers regress as the season goes along? quite possibly. But according to a scout

    Maybe Votto isn't a 1.050 OPS player, but then again, maybe he is.
    Votto may see a few more hittable pitches, but that would have nothing to do with BABIP unless you are suggesting Pujols swings at bad pitches.

    And Votto's true skill isn't that of a 1.050 hitter.

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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I really wanted Smoak, who's not only more athletic, but a switch hitter. I see Alonso as a Sean Casey clone, with perhaps a bit more power. Hope I'm wrong about that.
    That's who he reminds me of also, with that inside-out, left-center field gap swing. Below-average athleticism and speed. If he can't learn to hit lefties just a little bit, he won't reach that level. I expect him to get better, but his utter ineptitude against lefties is why I don't think he's anywhere near as advanced as others do.

    I don't know if Frazier will have a better OPS, but I think he'll be a better player. Of course, I'm pretty sure Alonso will become whatever he will become in another uniform, and it wouldn't surprise me if Frazier does as well.

  11. #25
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Votto may see a few more hittable pitches, but that would have nothing to do with BABIP unless you are suggesting Pujols swings at bad pitches.

    And Votto's true skill isn't that of a 1.050 hitter.
    It is until it isn't grasshopper. Maybe it's a hot streak. Maybe it's his ceiling. Maybe he's BABIP lucky, and it'll normalize. Maybe once it does though his OPS won't be affected because he adjusts.

    Projections are cool and all, but sometimes seeing is believing. Votto has a knack for hitting the ball hard the other way, no discernible splits and seems to still be learning his craft.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #26
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Do you know if there was a pre-season version of the top 100 prospects on First Inning's website? I would also be interested in looking at lists from previous years as well. I looked around and couldn't find it.

  13. #27
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Do you know if there was a pre-season version of the top 100 prospects on First Inning's website? I would also be interested in looking at lists from previous years as well. I looked around and couldn't find it.
    If there was one, it wasn't done by anyone involved with the site now. We are all new to FI over the last two months.

  14. #28
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    It is until it isn't grasshopper. Maybe it's a hot streak. Maybe it's his ceiling. Maybe he's BABIP lucky, and it'll normalize. Maybe once it does though his OPS won't be affected because he adjusts.

    Projections are cool and all, but sometimes seeing is believing. Votto has a knack for hitting the ball hard the other way, no discernible splits and seems to still be learning his craft.
    Ignore it if you want. Its just not possible that he continues to be a .400 BABIP player regardless of what he does. No one has ever continued doing it. Ever. In the history of the game.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And Votto's true skill isn't that of a 1.050 hitter.
    Why not?

  16. #30
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    Re: FirstInning.com Midseason Top 100 Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ignore it if you want. Its just not possible that he continues to be a .400 BABIP player regardless of what he does. No one has ever continued doing it. Ever. In the history of the game.
    And you can skip the part of the post where I said his BABIP could normalize and he still might not drop his OPS. His SLG and OBP could still be similar. His power is increasing. I do worry about his lack of walks in July, but long term, I'm confident he'll be fine.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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