By my count, the Washington Nationals will likely win about 35 percent of their games the rest of the way. I'm going by nothing more than intuition. That would be a 26-48 record.
So since the Reds are 42-46, they cannot win more than 10 more games the rest of the season to be assured of finishing worse than the Nationals' expected 50-55 victories. This, of course, would give them the No. 1-overall pick in the 2010 draft and rights to Bryce Harper.
Give away Arroyo for anyone willing to take his salary. Trade Harang for a MLB ready starter and/or quality SS.
Re-tool in the offseason and let the Harper fantasy begin. I think this team, at full strength, is competitive, but it had a small margin for error and I think that margin is slipping quickly away. Bring on Bryce Harper. If you can manage 10-60 the rest of the way, do it.
Naturally, I'm partially posting this tongue-in-cheek. Clearly, even if I were OK with a team tanking it, the Nationals have a real good chance of not blowing their Strasburg-Harper dreams. In fact, I almost feel sorry for the Reds that they can't be bad enough to trip and stumble into such a franchise-changing situation.
For me though, it's time to be sellers. It's a seller's market. If the Reds can acquire a Yunel Escobar along the way, by all means do it. But get ready for next season.