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Thread: Tank it

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Tank it

    By my count, the Washington Nationals will likely win about 35 percent of their games the rest of the way. I'm going by nothing more than intuition. That would be a 26-48 record.

    So since the Reds are 42-46, they cannot win more than 10 more games the rest of the season to be assured of finishing worse than the Nationals' expected 50-55 victories. This, of course, would give them the No. 1-overall pick in the 2010 draft and rights to Bryce Harper.

    Give away Arroyo for anyone willing to take his salary. Trade Harang for a MLB ready starter and/or quality SS.

    Re-tool in the offseason and let the Harper fantasy begin. I think this team, at full strength, is competitive, but it had a small margin for error and I think that margin is slipping quickly away. Bring on Bryce Harper. If you can manage 10-60 the rest of the way, do it.

    Naturally, I'm partially posting this tongue-in-cheek. Clearly, even if I were OK with a team tanking it, the Nationals have a real good chance of not blowing their Strasburg-Harper dreams. In fact, I almost feel sorry for the Reds that they can't be bad enough to trip and stumble into such a franchise-changing situation.

    For me though, it's time to be sellers. It's a seller's market. If the Reds can acquire a Yunel Escobar along the way, by all means do it. But get ready for next season.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #2
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    By my count, the Washington Nationals will likely win about 35 percent of their games the rest of the way. I'm going by nothing more than intuition. That would be a 26-48 record.

    So since the Reds are 42-46, they cannot win more than 10 more games the rest of the season to be assured of finishing worse than the Nationals' expected 50-55 victories. This, of course, would give them the No. 1-overall pick in the 2010 draft and rights to Bryce Harper.

    Give away Arroyo for anyone willing to take his salary. Trade Harang for a MLB ready starter and/or quality SS.

    Re-tool in the offseason and let the Harper fantasy begin. I think this team, at full strength, is competitive, but it had a small margin for error and I think that margin is slipping quickly away. Bring on Bryce Harper. If you can manage 10-60 the rest of the way, do it.

    Naturally, I'm partially posting this tongue-in-cheek. Clearly, even if I were OK with a team tanking it, the Nationals have a real good chance of not blowing their Strasburg-Harper dreams. In fact, I almost feel sorry for the Reds that they can't be bad enough to trip and stumble into such a franchise-changing situation.

    For me though, it's time to be sellers. It's a seller's market. If the Reds can acquire a Yunel Escobar along the way, by all means do it. But get ready for next season.
    Think this one through carefully. The Nats are tougher than you think. Just ask the Ms about their epic battle with Washington for Strasburg.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #3
    Worth The Wait
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    Re: Tank it

    I have no problem with the "tank it" proposal, but I just don't think it matters either way anymore. We've been "sellers" at this point for the better half of a decade and it hasn't made one bit of difference. Different parts, but the same results. We've totally turned over the roster, turned over the GM spot, turned over the manager, and we're still where we always are come this time of the year.

    There isn't a trade we could make that would "excite" me right now. It just doesn't matter.

  5. #4
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    The Nats should just give their 1st round pick to the Reds or someone else. They didn't sign the pick last year and it doesn't look like they are going to this year either. On PTI the other day they said the Nats hadn't even spoken to Strasburg since they picked him. You would think they would at least call him up and say Hi.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  6. #5
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    They didn't sign the pick last year and it doesn't look like they are going to this year either.
    they will sign Strasburg.

    Boras takes all of his clients to the deadline, the nats would only hurt their position if they started negotiating now. It would expect negotiations to start around August 15th.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  7. #6
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    110% agree with selling.

    My trade list:
    1. Arroyo goes to whoever wants him. If someone claims him on waivers after August 1rst let them have him.
    2. Weathers has real value. He is a nice middle reliever but isn't worth the ~$4M option he has for 2010
    3. Ramon Hernandez has real value to a team needing catching.
    4. As has been pointed out Cordero is an expensive luxury to the Reds but has a no trade clause. if he would waive it then deal him.
    5. Hairston has minimal value but i would deal him for some A ball long shot prospect
    6. Nix has minimal value but i would deal him for some A ball long shot prospect
    7. Taveras has no trade value (unfortunately)

    My keeper list:
    1. Harang. workhorse starter needed for 2010. the rotation looks a lot better with him than without him
    2. Gomes. arbitration eligible but won't break the bank for 2010. long histroy of crushing LHP. having a very nice season in a part time role this year
    3. Rhodes. if we deal both Cordero (maybe this offseason) and Weathers it would be nice to have one veteran in the pen. plus he is cheap.
    4. Keep the youth - Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Janish, EE, Rosales, Bruce, Dickerson, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Owings, Masset, Roenicke, Fisher, Herrara,Burton, etc
    .

  8. #7
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    Arroyo and Weathers won't get it done. If you want to rebuild in a meaningful way, you've got to be willing to let go of something valuable.

    Shop Harang. He can bring real value.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  9. #8
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    Re: Tank it

    I fear Harang won't bring much, not with his salary. Whoever takes him off your hands will know they're giving enormous salary relief. Might have to consider trading Phillips, Votto, Volquez, or Bruce to actually make a difference, though obviously it's a bad time to deal either Volquez or Bruce as they're at a probable low point in value right now.

  10. #9
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    Re: Tank it

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Shop Harang. He can bring real value.

    if Harang pitches well in the next 2 weeks, he'll be gone IMO

  11. #10
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    In this market Cordero likely cannot be moved. I doubt anyone is interested in taking on the last two years of his contract.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  12. #11
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    Re: Tank it

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    In this market Cordero likely cannot be moved. I doubt anyone is interested in taking on the last two years of his contract.
    CoCo's an all-star with only two years remaining on his contract. the closer he gets to end of contract, at top performance, the more interest he generates.

    he's interesting and that interest will grow.

  13. #12
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 110% agree with selling.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    My trade list:
    1. Arroyo goes to whoever wants him. If someone claims him on waivers after August 1rst let them have him.
    Arroyo has value, if you're willing to take a couple AA prospects the Reds could get a couple pretty fair prospects. What you won't get is major league ready guys. The other way to trade him is to take someone else's veteran with a too-rich-for-production contract, which makes no sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    2. Weathers has real value. He is a nice middle reliever but isn't worth the ~$4M option he has for 2010
    Weathers has been so good this year I really think the Reds could land a very good prospect for him. Given his age you'd probably have to subtract one level - so again, a top quality AA guy but one of an organization's top 5.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    3. Ramon Hernandez has real value to a team needing catching.
    Hernandez is at a premium position and should be able to land a top prospect at AAA or a young bullpen arm to help replace Weathers and Cordero.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    4. As has been pointed out Cordero is an expensive luxury to the Reds but has a no trade clause. if he would waive it then deal him.
    If he would waive his no trade (and I think he would if he was heading to a definite contender) then he should net more prospects, and good ones but again, given his $ the prospects are more likely to be A or AA if they are going to be any good.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    5. Hairston has minimal value but i would deal him for some A ball long shot prospect
    The Reds got Sutton for Kepp. I'd take a Sutton like prospect for Hairston and I think that's reasonable for him. A contender could use him

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    6. Nix has minimal value but i would deal him for some A ball long shot prospect
    Yeah, I agree here. Anything you can get - the Reds have a bevy of future outfielders that match or exceed any expectation I have of Nix. Get what you can for him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    7. Taveras has no trade value (unfortunately)
    Nah. Redzoners just hate him with some justification but he does have value. Just Rookie league or A ball prospect value. I think he can be moved but that means Walt admits a big mistake was made and accepts pretty much nothing in return. I think Walt defends his mistake by claiming injuries kept Taveras ineffective this year and the Reds see him back next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    My keeper list:
    1. Harang. workhorse starter needed for 2010. the rotation looks a lot better with him than without him
    2. Gomes. arbitration eligible but won't break the bank for 2010. long histroy of crushing LHP. having a very nice season in a part time role this year
    3. Rhodes. if we deal both Cordero (maybe this offseason) and Weathers it would be nice to have one veteran in the pen. plus he is cheap.
    4. Keep the youth - Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Janish, EE, Rosales, Bruce, Dickerson, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Owings, Masset, Roenicke, Fisher, Herrara,Burton, etc
    Harang - I'd trade him. I definitely see your point about 2010 but I try to get a max return for him now. If that isn't out there then I keep him without qualms.
    Gomes I agree with you simply because I don't think you can get a player that would out produce him in terms of dollars or numbers. He may be a platoon player but he's a darn good one.
    Rhodes I'd offer but Arthur should remain effective despite his age because he is used in such a limited way. Like Harang, he'd be offered for a good prospect but if nothing was tempting I'd have no problem keeping him.

    The youth. Here's the crux. The Reds keep the right ones and trade the right ones and the future looks bright. Make the wrong decisions and its bleak. Really, imo, all the above doesn't matter much if the Reds screw this part up.

  14. #13
    Mr.Redlegs is my homeboy Eric_the_Red's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    I'm seeing a lot of people calling to trade Harang. I think that is a risky move. Is this team a division winner without Harang in 2010? Cueto, Volquez, Arroyo, Owings, Bailey....lots of question marks there.

  15. #14
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    I would trade Rhodes in a heart beat. He has been very good this season, but his shelf life keeps shrinking. I think you could get quite a bit for Rhodes and am willing to roll the dice next season that Masset and a healthy Bray can fill in Rhonds 7th inning.

  16. #15
    Member Jpup's Avatar
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    Re: Tank it

    Send Rhodes to Boston. They could use a shutdown lefty.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton


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