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Thread: Reds stats through 90 games

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    Reds stats through 90 games

    3-7 stretch spanning All Star break. Reds now at 43-47, home 21-22, road 22-25, 5th place, 5.5 games out, 367 runs, 419 runs against. Seems like wheels may finally have come off after Reds played .500 ball into July. 22-1 loss at Phil. started this stretch. Bruce on DL, EE back, Roenicke down, Gonzo on DL, Manuel up, Rosales back up. Volquez still on DL.

    Offense. Last time was (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS) .250/.321/.394/.715. Now it's .249/.319/.391/.710 slightly worse. At time of injury, Bruce in slump with .577 OPS over the last 70 at bats. Votto with .911 OPS in same 30 day period. Gomes and EE with 1.000 plus OPS numbers in limited at bats during 30 day period. Taveras hitting .318 BA with .333 OBP in last 30 days (85 at bats), with 2 walks in that stretch.

    Pitching. The real story of the 3-7 stretch. From 4.00 ERA team now at 4.26 in 8th place in NL. 22-1 loss impacts pitching numbers, as does Janish 11 ER allowed in two mop up innings this season. Key stat: starters now in 11th place in NL with 4.62 ERA. Last time was 4.38. Bullpen 3.55, third place, still good but declined from 3.25. Pen ERA includes Janish outings.

    In last 30 days, some individual ERAs --Cueto 9.27, Owings 6.35, Harang 5.45 (0-4 WL), Herrera 5.40, Bailey 5.32, Weathers and Massett, each with 4.91. In July Reds with overall worst ERA in NL at 5.19 (through 7/18 games).

    Arroyo recovered from slump with two scoreless outings v. Mets and Brewers. Yo-yo season current numbers 10-8 with 5.07 ERA, improved from 5.85 last time. Cueto, last time, at 2.69 now 3.62.

    Fielding. DER slipped to fourth in league, perhaps due to 22-1 debacle with balls falling in play repeatedly. Reds made five errors in stretch, now with 61 tied for 4th-5th most in league. FPCT of .982 also 4th-5th from bottom.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-19-2009 at 12:59 PM.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61
    Pitching. The real story of the 3-7 stretch. From 4.00 ERA team now at 4.26 in 8th place in NL. 22-1 loss impacts pitching numbers, as does Janish 11 ER allowed in two mop up innings this season. Key stat: starters now in 11th place in NL with 4.62 ERA. Last time was 4.38. Bullpen 3.55, third place, still good but declined from 3.25. Pen ERA includes Janish outings.

    In last 30 days, some individual ERAs --Cueto 9.27, Owings 6.35, Harang 5.45 (0-4 WL), Herrera 5.40, Bailey 5.32, Weathers and Massett, each with 4.91. In July Reds with overall worst ERA in NL at 5.19 (through 7/18 games).

    Arroyo recovered from slump with two scoreless outings v. Mets and Brewers. Yo-yo season current numbers 10-8 with 5.07 ERA, improved from 5.85 last time. Cueto, last time, at 2.69 now 3.62.

    Fielding. DER slipped to fourth in league, perhaps due to 22-1 debacle with balls falling in play repeatedly. Reds made five errors in stretch, now with 61 tied for 4th-5th most in league. FPCT of .982 also 4th-5th from bottom.
    Isn't it ironic that a team that had to rely on better pitching and fielding (because there was no hitting to speak of--a known weakness nothing was done about), has taken a nosedive? Could it be that the management overrated the fielding and pitching abilities of this team? Or maybe the team has given up and is playing lacklusterly (if that's a word)?

    The dropoff has been dramatic in pitching and fielding.
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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Isn't it ironic that a team that had to rely on better pitching and fielding (because there was no hitting to speak of--a known weakness nothing was done about), has taken a nosedive? Could it be that the management overrated the fielding and pitching abilities of this team? Or maybe the team has given up and is playing lacklusterly (if that's a word)?

    The dropoff has been dramatic in pitching and fielding.
    The defense is still good. The relief pitching is still good. Rhodes and Cordero have been spectacular this year.

    IMO, what has hurt the most in recent weeks are two things. Volquez's absence. He was an all star last year and is missing due to injury this year. And Harang's pitching. He just hasn't pitched like a top of the rotation guy for two years now.

    Arroyo has been like a yo yo but on balance pretty much what we expected. Owings has slumped but he's still an improvement at fifth starter. Cueto's slipped but he's still under four ERA and a very young pitcher.

    Right now, the Reds' only top of the rotation starter is Cueto and he is slumping. He may just be tired, hopefully he'll come back now with rest. But Harang and Arroyo are really number three or four types and Owings and Bailey are fifth starters. Hopefully Cueto-Volquez-Bailey will be strong next year with health and experience and boost the rotation.

    And, as you say, there's no room for slippage in the pitching department when the team has so little on the offensive side.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-19-2009 at 01:32 PM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    I think the problems have been threefold:

    *Offense
    *Pitching
    *Injuries

    The bright spots have been the relief pitching and the defense.
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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The defense is still good. The relief pitching is still good. Rhodes and Cordero have been spectacular this year.

    IMO, what has hurt the most in recent weeks are two things. Volquez's absence. He was an all star last year and is missing due to injury this year. And Harang's pitching. He just hasn't pitched like a top of the rotation guy for two years now.

    Arroyo has been like a yo yo but on balance pretty much what we expected. Owings has slumped but he's still an improvement at fifth starter. Cueto's slipped but he's still under four ERA and a very young pitcher.

    Right now, the Reds' only top of the rotation starter is Cueto and he is slumping. He may just be tired, hopefully he'll come back now with rest. But Harang and Arroyo are really number three or four types and Owings and Bailey are fifth starters. Hopefully Cueto-Volquez-Bailey will be strong next year with health and experience and boost the rotation.

    And, as you say, there's no room for slippage in the pitching department when the team has so little on the offensive side.
    It happens every season: folks believe so-and-so's a TOR guy, when he's a #2.

    The teams in the lead all have TOR guys, some have more than one.

    Now before anyone gets in a snit, I like most of these starters; I'm just realistic about their ceilings. And it appears my take on their ceilings was about right so far. I could see Volquez having a couple of TOR seasons and maybe Cueto too, but everyone else is either middle/bottom of the rotation.

    Adding Halliday would be the tonic. It would allow the developing starters to develop and not have to be the aces they aren't ready to be.

    Edit: one other point: I know it might seem a comfort to think that Volquez being out is really hampering the team, but what would the starters' ERA be with him in it instead of Bailey, Maloney, etc? Let's say he was putting up last year's numbers. It would probably be no better than 4.45 or so overall. Better, yes, but if we're being clear-eyed, pretty vanilla, even with pitching in GAB.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 07-19-2009 at 03:25 PM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Edit: one other point: I know it might seem a comfort to think that Volquez being out is really hampering the team, but what would the starters' ERA be with him in it instead of Bailey, Maloney, etc? Let's say he was putting up last year's numbers. It would probably be no better than 4.45 or so overall. Better, yes, but if we're being clear-eyed, pretty vanilla, even with pitching in GAB.
    The Reds ERA+ still places them considerably better than league average, despite missing their best starting pitcher for an extensive period of time. Their OPS+ places them as arguably the worst offense in all of baseball, even though they now are basically at full strength. I know which one concerned me more coming into the season, and I know which gives me far greater apprehension for the future, if left unaddressed.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    The Reds ERA+ places them considerably above league average, despite missing their best starting pitcher. Their OPS+ places them as arguably the worst offense in all of baseball, even though they now are basically at full strength. I know which one concerned me more coming into the season, and I know which gives me far greater apprehension for the future, if left unaddressed.
    Is Volquez their best starter? I'd say that's highly arguable.

    As I've said a million times, sure, the offense is worse, obviously. But the offense is cheap to fix, if they so desire (and they may not desire, but that's a different argument). And they have better offensive prospects than they do starting prospects in the minors.

    And really, obviously, the relief pitching has been great, so sure, the ERA+ is bound to be better than average. But I'm talking about starting alone, as relief corps are much more fluid from year to year.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Is Volquez their best starter? I'd say that's highly arguable.

    As I've said a million times, sure, the offense is worse, obviously. But the offense is cheap to fix, if they so desire (and they may not desire, but that's a different argument). And they have better offensive prospects than they do starting prospects in the minors.
    The last Reds starter to post a better ERA+ than Volquez's 147 last season, was 1993 Jose Rijo (not Schourek or Smiley or Neagle or Harnisch). Add in the peripherals of the 200Ks, the high IP totals etc...and the immense importance of Volquez's performance becomes pretty clear. Remove the closest thing we've had to a Jose Rijo immitation from our rotation, and yes it's going to have a major impact.

    This rotation can be top 4-5 in the NL with only the following taking place: Volquez returns to health/form, Cueto continues his maturation, Harang and Owings hold steady, and someone like Bailey progreses at all. Those are all within the ream of pretty high probability.

    The offense? Well, even at full strength, it's perhaps the worst thing going in either league, with little major impact on the immediate horizon. Just for starters, we need an outside the organization legitimate LF bat and a true SS, at the bare minimum (it also wouldn't hurt to have a manager who will put our 350/400+OBPs in front of our run producers, rather than the 2 worst OBPs on the team in those spots). Ofcourse, we've ostensibly needed all of those things since Walt arrived, and are still waiting.
    Last edited by Stormy; 07-19-2009 at 04:01 PM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post

    The offense? Well, even at full strength, it's the worst thing going in either league, with little major impact on the immediate horizon. Just for starters, we need an outside the organization LF and SS, at the bare minimum (and a manager who will put our 350/400+OBPs in front of our run producers, rather than the 2 worst OBPs on the team in those spots).
    I think Frazier has quite a bit of potential and Alonso obviously. Few teams in the Central have bats like them developing in their minors' systems.

    But I agree in one sense: I've taken a huge step back on my predictions for Bruce. It's getting harder and harder to argue a Larry Walker-ish ceiling for the kid. I'm thinking he'll mature into roughly a league average RF OPS bat. Great pop, terrible patience.

    So my feelings wouldn't by hurt if they acquired more than one OF.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post

    This rotation can be top 4-5 in the NL with only the following taking place: Volquez returns to health/form, Cueto continues his maturation, Harang and Owings hold steady, and someone like Bailey progreses at all. Those are all within the ream of pretty high probability.
    If all those things go right, sure.

    But I think you greatly overplay the probability--when have the Reds been able to keep a stable pitching corps healthy and productive and patiently developed? I'd say if two or three of the above happen, we're bucking the odds.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think Frazier has quite a bit of potential and Alonso obviously. Few teams in the Central have bats like them developing in their minors' systems.

    But I agree in one sense: I've taken a huge step back on my predictions for Bruce. It's getting harder and harder to argue a Larry Walker-ish ceiling for the kid. I'm thinking he'll mature into roughly a league average RF OPS bat. Great pop, terrible patience.

    So my feelings wouldn't by hurt if they acquired more than one OF.
    Agreed on both counts. I like Alonso and Frazier, but wouldn't count on them being the catalysts for a revived 2010 offense, just yet. Bruce just took a major turn down 'Austin Kearns Lane' with his 2009 performance, but there's plenty of time for him to right the ship. A great deal has to change in his plate approach for him to ever resemble the Walker projections.

    I would have been much happier if Walt's first moves had been identifying impact personnel at LF/SS, and maybe divesting us of Arroyo coming off his approximately 100IP of 3.47ERA ball in the last half of 2008.

    I'd love to have Halladay, just like you, but we also need some juice for this abysmal offense.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I could see Volquez having a couple of TOR seasons and maybe Cueto too, but everyone else is either middle/bottom of the rotation.
    Really, how many pitchers have more than one or two seasons as TOR. If you have many more, you're going to Cooperstown. A lot of us wanted to jam while the Volquez/Cueto window as open. That means you need a steady back end of the rotation (even if overpaid), offense and the defensive holes plugged.

    The Volquez injury has really thrown this team for a loop. Now you need to look at moving Harang and Arroyo and that means you need more pitching.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    I just posted this in response to PDoc's TML blog post today. He observes that the Reds would have to go 44-27 to end up with 88 wins and possibly compete for the division title.

    I looked at the schedule and figured out how to maybe get those 44 wins.

    Like in my post, I'll say again. Probable? No. Possible? Sure. It's not like I'm banking on a crazy-Rockie like win streak here. Just win series you should, win a few against better teams and even lose some on the road that you probably will (ahem, California).


    Here's the layout:

    7/20/2009, Reds at Dodgers, 3 games, 1 win
    7/24/2009, Reds at Cubs, 3 games, 2 wins
    7/27/2009, Padres at Reds, 4 games, 3 wins
    7/31/2009, Rockies at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
    8/3/2009, Cubs at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
    8/7/2009, Reds at Giants, 3 games, 1 win
    8/10/2009, Reds at Cardinals, 3 games, 1 win
    8/13/2009, Nationals at Reds, 4 games, 3 wins
    8/18/2009, Giants at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
    8/21/2009, Reds at Pirates, 3 games, 2 wins
    8/25/2009, Reds at Brewers, 3 games, 1 win
    8/28/2009, Dodgers at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
    8/31/2009, Pirates at Reds, 4 games, 3 wins
    9/4/2009, Reds at Braves, 3 games, 2 wins
    9/7/2009, Reds at Rockies, 4 games, 2 wins
    9/11/2009, Reds at Cubs, 3 games, 2 wins
    9/14/2009, Astros at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
    9/17/2009, Marlins at Reds, 4 games, 3 wins
    9/22/2009, Reds at Pirates, 3 games, 2 wins
    9/25/2009, Reds at Astros, 3 games, 2 wins
    9/29/2009, Cardinals at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
    10/2/2009, Pirates at Reds, 3 games, 2 wins
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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I think Frazier has quite a bit of potential and Alonso obviously. Few teams in the Central have bats like them developing in their minors' systems.

    But I agree in one sense: I've taken a huge step back on my predictions for Bruce. It's getting harder and harder to argue a Larry Walker-ish ceiling for the kid. I'm thinking he'll mature into roughly a league average RF OPS bat. Great pop, terrible patience.

    So my feelings wouldn't by hurt if they acquired more than one OF.
    Look at Larry Walker's first two seasons. His stats were pretty pedestrian. In his first full season he put up a stat line of .241/.326/.434. Hardly anything to suggest that he was going to become a great player.

    I think Bruce has a long way to go, but I am just not into the premature downgrading of his abilities.

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    Re: Reds stats through 90 games

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Look at Larry Walker's first two seasons. His stats were pretty pedestrian. In his first full season he put up a stat line of .241/.326/.434. Hardly anything to suggest that he was going to become a great player.

    I think Bruce has a long way to go, but I am just not into the premature downgrading of his abilities.
    Yeah, he is 22, right? It's a little early.
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