I disagree with you 8-10 AB's theory. You can compile a good stretch of at bats or look good at the plate for a couple of games. Heck even Juan Castro has 36 career HR's. But it doesn't take much to look at Castro and see he is limited at the plate.
my key point is that decisions have to be made early-- for instance, do we know what the heck is going on with our drafters? if we were to wait until hall of fame ballots are cast before we assess and make changes, then we've waited far too long.
with Stubbs vs. Lincecum, I argued that you knew within weeks, and that has turned out to be true. yet folks here continued to argue, as recently as last year, that I just "think" and don't actually "know" about Stubbs. it's true, the early returns can be wrong but how many Cy Young awards does it really take? honestly, at some point you've got to make a decision. you can deal Lincecum for a LOT, and have a Stubbs as a throw-in in that deal. That tells you all that you really need to know.
with Beckham vs. Alonso or Frazier, the rookie of the year award should help. Beckham's value-- actual franchise value-- last year was probably $5mill, and it's probably quadrupled since then. you can probably trade him right now for Alonso and Frazier and another solid prospect. that's nice.
regarding Lincecum: at time of that draft, I commented that if Reds were so worried about Lincecum getting injured then pick Kyle Drabek instead. just not Stubbs. And, here we're getting info that Drabek is the guy that everyone's lusting after. Lincecum's still the man by FAR, but a Drabek buys you a Stubbs and a lot more right now. Drabek wins, Reds first round loses.
so, are the Reds re-thinking how they pick the first round? I sincerely hope so. but I guess we could wait as they pick like this for 15 more years in order to gather all of the data...
But what I am saying is that when you get to a certain level you can tell who the good players are and who are the fillers. It doesn't take much and a good scout should be able to determine that.
I just think that if you are using an 8-10 AB frame you can be deceived by a hot streak. I think most of us on RZ could go and watch a AA game and pick out who are the good players and who aren't. I do think it is a little premature to make those judgments about draft players because projectability is still a huge issue.
Really.... Stubbs and Lincecum? Is there even anyone on this board that thought at any point in time that Stubbs was better on this board? I don't recall a single poster thinking that. Not one.
Princeton is getting a little out of control I think.