2008 MLB's Top 20 Rankings in Pitcher Abuse Points

[savafan]

For an explanation of pitcher abuse points, see this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=148

Here are the Top 20 Pitcher Abuse Points rankings from 2008:

#	NAME		GS	TOT_NP	MAX_NP	AVG_NP	TOT_PAP	MAX_PAP	AVG_PAP	CAT_1	CAT_2	CAT_3	CAT_4	CAT_5	STRESS
1.Tim Lincecum		33	3598	138	109.03	174543	54872	5289.18	7	8	14	3	1	49
2.Cc Sabathia		35	3814	130	108.971	111844	27000	3195.54	7	12	11	5	0	29
3.Roy Halladay		33	3537	130	107.182	78018	27000	2364.18	8	10	14	1	0	22
4.Justin Verlander	33	3528	130	106.909	76495	27000	2318.03	6	11	15	1	0	22
5.Matt Cain		34	3606	126	106.059	71340	17576	2098.24	10	8	14	2	0	20
6.Johan Santana		34	3598	125	105.824	65894	15625	1938.06	11	10	12	1	0	18
7.Carlos Zambrano	30	3013	130	100.433	65136	27000	2171.2	12	10	6	2	0	22
8.Ben Sheets		31	3054	123	98.5161	61290	12167	1977.1	15	4	10	2	0	20
9.Jake Peavy		27	2860	127	105.926	56059	19683	2076.26	7	9	10	1	0	20
10.Gil Meche		34	3555	129	104.559	55615	24389	1635.74	12	13	8	1	0	16
11.A.j. Burnett		34	3626	121	106.647	53680	9261	1578.82	7	12	15	0	0	15
12.Jon Lester		33	3309	130	100.273	51256	27000	1553.21	16	11	5	1	0	15
13.Cole Hamels		33	3427	125	103.848	49744	15625	1507.39	13	9	10	1	0	15
14.Ricky Nolasco	32	3180	132	99.375	47664	32768	1489.5	19	7	5	1	0	15
15.Bronson Arroyo	34	3436	122	101.059	47440	10648	1395.29	14	10	9	1	0	14
16.Brett Myers		30	3015	121	100.5	47024	9261	1567.47	14	4	12	0	0	16
17.Edinson Volquez	32	3347	121	104.594	44968	9261	1405.25	11	7	14	0	0	13
18.Ryan Dempster	33	3341	119	101.242	42040	6859	1273.94	12	9	12	0	0	13
19.Aaron Harang		29	2992	122	103.172	41966	10648	1447.1	9	9	10	1	0	14
20.Javier Vazquez	33	3376	122	102.303	40906	10648	1239.58	12	14	6	1	0	12

Volquez is on the shelf. Let's face it, Harang hasn't been the same pitcher since last May 25 when he pitched 4 innings in relief in that extra inning game. Arroyo is the kind of pitcher whose arm could handle more innings, but his first half of the year was a lot of awful. Some of the other starters on this list have had down years this season as well, or not pitched at all. Chicago fans have long accused Dusty Baker of ruining Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Think perhaps this could be any indication of Baker's tendency toward overworking pitchers having an effect on the arms of the Reds rotation this year?

For the record, Cueto ranked #27 on the list last year.

[traderumor]

Huh, that list is also a who's who of good pitchers in the league. I'm guessing that the good pitcher stays in the game longer, logs more innings and pitches. Gee, that's a new development in baseball.

[Falls City Beer]

These pitchers are all good to very good pitchers who throw lots of innings. I imagine crappy pitchers don't get "abused" very much.

Edit: traderumor brings a solid.

[kaldaniels]

Is there truly anything to be gained by analzying this list...sorry but many on it are having wonderful seasons.

[savafan]

Nolasco has become a .500 pitcher this year with an ERA of 5.42.

Sheets isn't even pitching this season.

Meche's ERA has gone up half a run, and he's 5 games under .500.

Dempster had a rough start to the season, and is now on the DL

Lester also looked terrible early on this year.

Cole Hamels is no where near the same pitcher he was last season.

I'm sure there's nothing to this...

[Falls City Beer]

Nolasco has become a .500 pitcher this year with an ERA of 5.42.

Sheets isn't even pitching this season.

Meche's ERA has gone up half a run, and he's 5 games under .500.

Dempster had a rough start to the season, and is now on the DL

Lester also looked terrible early on this year.

Cole Hamels is no where near the same pitcher he was last season.

I'm sure there's nothing to this...

Other than Hamels, you've just profiled a bunch of regularly bum-winged pitchers.

[savafan]

Is there truly anything to be gained by analzying this list...sorry but many on it are having wonderful seasons.

Like Jake Peavy, who's on the DL with an ERA near 4?

Sabathia, who's ERA is over 2 more runs a game than when he was in Milwaukee last year?

I've already pointed out Sheets and Dempster's DL stints.


I wouldn't say MANY on the list are having wonderful seasons. Halladay, Santana, Lincecum, Verlander and Volquez...those I'll give you.

[corkedbat]

These pitchers are all good to very good pitchers who throw lots of innings. I imagine crappy pitchers don't get "abused" very much.

Edit: traderumor brings a solid.

Yeah, bad pitchers get abuse by hitters not managers

[Brutus]

Nolasco has become a .500 pitcher this year with an ERA of 5.42.

Sheets isn't even pitching this season.

Meche's ERA has gone up half a run, and he's 5 games under .500.

Dempster had a rough start to the season, and is now on the DL

Lester also looked terrible early on this year.

Cole Hamels is no where near the same pitcher he was last season.

I'm sure there's nothing to this...

Nolasco has been solid, and at times, spectacular, since returning from his demotion.

Hamels started off poorly and was banged up, but he's been real good lately.

Sheets has been hurt five straight seasons.

I think in any season you're going to find a lot of inconsistency with guys like Dempster and Lester. Don't think it has much to do with abuse as much as regression.

I don't agree with abuse points. In fact, I categorically believe it's junk. For many, many decades, guys were throwing curveballs, fastballs, forkballs, etc. and throwing both ends of a double-header. And rarely did you have injury problems. The human body has not changed, which tells me the problem is now how often you use the pitcher but their mechanics, conditioning, proneness to injury and, I hate to say it, but steroids has made guys bigger and susceptible to torn muscles.

I really do not personally believe in PAP.

[LoganBuck]

Dempster fell and hurt himself jumping over the dugout fence to celebrate a Cubs win.

[IslandRed]

PAP is a useful metric to check up on workload in greater context than merely counting innings or total pitches. But it's important to realize that someone's going to be #1, or #10, or #15 on that list whether or not they were actually abused. With the exception of the oft-beaten horse of Harang's relief outing that one day in San Diego, I had little issue with the way the starters were handled last year.

I don't agree with abuse points. In fact, I categorically believe it's junk. For many, many decades, guys were throwing curveballs, fastballs, forkballs, etc. and throwing both ends of a double-header. And rarely did you have injury problems.

That's not really true. Pitchers got hurt in the old days, too. But there were fewer teams and more kids playing baseball, and the money wasn't so big, so teams could afford to put pitchers through the grinder and weed out everyone but the rubber-armed freaks. Nowadays, clubs have fewer pitchers under control, more money invested in them, and no ready source of talented replacements. They can't afford to be so Darwinian about it.

[Brutus]

PAP is a useful metric to check up on workload in greater context than merely counting innings or total pitches. But it's important to realize that someone's going to be #1, or #10, or #15 on that list whether or not they were actually abused. With the exception of the oft-beaten horse of Harang's relief outing that one day in San Diego, I had little issue with the way the starters were handled last year.



That's not really true. Pitchers got hurt in the old days, too. But there were fewer teams and more kids playing baseball, and the money wasn't so big, so teams could afford to put pitchers through the grinder and weed out everyone but the rubber-armed freaks. Nowadays, clubs have fewer pitchers under control, more money invested in them, and no ready source of talented replacements. They can't afford to be so Darwinian about it.

I did say rarely, I didn't say it didn't happen.

The money wasn't so big, but then again, they weren't paying the players as much either (and didn't have the income from media like today). Sure, it was not as much of a business. But bottom line is you had a lot of pitchers pitching a lot of innings and not dropping like flies. So clearly the human body can withstand it. Whether or not teams are so Darwinian about it or not is not my point - my point is that they could be without the disastrous results that everybody seems to anticipate every time, God forbid, a guy goes 15 more pitches than people think he should.

[IslandRed]

I did say rarely, I didn't say it didn't happen.

The money wasn't so big, but then again, they weren't paying the players as much either (and didn't have the income from media like today). Sure, it was not as much of a business. But bottom line is you had a lot of pitchers pitching a lot of innings and not dropping like flies. So clearly the human body can withstand it. Whether or not teams are so Darwinian about it or not is not my point - my point is that they could be without the disastrous results that everybody seems to anticipate every time, God forbid, a guy goes 15 more pitches than people think he should.

My point was, lots of guys in the old days couldn't withstand it, you just never heard about them because they didn't survive to become big-league workhorses. Perhaps some of the guys today could throw 140 pitches per outing, no sweat, but considering how difficult it is to replace a good pitcher, no one's itching to push them to the breaking point.

[AtomicDumpling]

I don't agree with abuse points. In fact, I categorically believe it's junk. For many, many decades, guys were throwing curveballs, fastballs, forkballs, etc. and throwing both ends of a double-header. And rarely did you have injury problems. The human body has not changed, which tells me the problem is now how often you use the pitcher but their mechanics, conditioning, proneness to injury and, I hate to say it, but steroids has made guys bigger and susceptible to torn muscles.

I really do not personally believe in PAP.

Back in the old days pitchers didn't throw nearly as hard (with a few exceptions). Nowadays almost every pitcher throws 90+ and is going max effort on every pitch. Pitchers are much bigger and stronger and putting a lot more stress on elbows and shoulder joints. Players in the old days didn't work out much, certainly not like the strenuous strength regimens and improved nutrition utilized by players today. That is why players are bigger and stronger, not steroids.

In the old days you could get away with an 80-85 mph fastball because the hitters were much smaller and the fences much longer than in today's game. You could ease up on the scrawny infielders and save your best stuff for the star hitters. Now any hitter will crush a mistake or soft pitch.

Pitchers today throw much harder and use more breaking pitches than the boys of yesteryear. This puts much more stress on the arm and contributes to more injuries.

Pitcher Abuse Points have been shown by Baseball Prospectus and others to correlate well with injury frequency. It only makes sense, the more pitches you throw the more stress you are putting on your arm. Of course the likelihood of injury is higher.

[kaldaniels]

Write the name of every starter in the league who threw over 150 innings last year on a piece of paper. Put all their names in a hat. Draw out 20 names.

Guess what. Some will be hurt this year. Some will be underperforming. Some will be overacheiving. Some will be as expected.

Sometimes pitchers are overused which leads to injury,you'll never see me dispute that. I just don't see PAP as a surefire way to measure such a thing.