Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 45

Thread: And now for something different...

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,860

    And now for something different...

    The biggest takeaway from Moneyball is not that you should always draft college pitchers, or that plate discipline is king, or that stats matter.

    The biggest takeaway from Moneyball IMO is to figure out what is currently being undervalued/overvalued, and pounce.

    The Yankees wouldn't trade Phil Hughes for Johan Santana. The Angels refusal to give up prospects has been well documented. The Red Sox have a bear grip on Clay Buchholz, the Mets won't move Fernando Martinez, and the Brewers won't trade Alcides Escobar for almost anything (including Roy Halladay, and/or Brandon Morrow & Jarrod Washburn.)

    The more rumors I'm hearing this time of year, the more I'm becoming convinced that prospects are now overvalued. This of course is a dramatic departure (some may call it an over-correction) from years past, where big market teams could care less about anyone not on their 25 man roster.

    So what am I suggesting? How about thinking outside the box and taking a radically different approach, especially for a small-market team. How about taking advantage of this overvaluation, and making our prospects available- readily available, in exchange for serious proven talent. Of course big league talent is more expensive, but that is why you have to get creative. For instance, how about getting involved in the Roy Halladay talks? I know, I know- Halladay won't accept a trade here and even if he would, we're in fifth place so what's the point? That is not what I am suggesting. I say get involved as a third team in the talks. The Reds have more talent in the minor league pipeline than they've had in years, if not decades. Yet the problem is that a lot of it is redundant- Yonder Alonso at 1B, Heisey/Stubbs in CF, Stewart/Wood/Leake for the rotation. So what's wrong with that? The Reds biggest needs/holes are at SS, LF, and 3B. I think a little creative thinking could go a long way towards fixing the big club's problems.

    Rolen/Halladay is a good starting point. Zach Duke and Ian Snell with the Pirates might be another interesting option. Yunel Escobar has been reported to be available. There is a gaggle of promising but underachieving OFers out there (Balentien, D.Young, Dukes) whose teams would love to secure some cheap minor league talent. If none of the big market teams will give up their prospects, break the stalemate and get creative. There is plenty of opportunity in this market. As blasphemous as this may sound, now might be a great time to empty the cupboard.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-27-2009 at 03:17 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,661

    Re: And now for something different...

    It is probably too broad a brush to say "prospects" are overvalued. You are naming org's untouchables, I presume, which that is nothing new and I would say holding on to them is normal behavior.

  4. #3
    Member membengal's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    9,041

    Re: And now for something different...

    Benihana:

    I like the cut of your gib, here. Zig when others are zagging? Absolutely. That, really, was the core of the Moneyball approach. Finding value where it is overlooked.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,860

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    It is probably too broad a brush to say "prospects" are overvalued. You are naming org's untouchables, I presume, which that is nothing new and I would say holding on to them is normal behavior.
    You are incorrect sir- it is indeed new.

    If you were following this stuff 10 years ago, you would constantly see teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, etc. trading their "top prospects." It used to be pretty rare for a team to have an "untouchable" in the minor leagues. Now every team in the league has at least 2 or 3.

    It wasn't that long ago that Scott Kazmir was traded for Victor Zambrano. Ditto for guys like Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Dennis Tankersley, Brad Penny, Sean Casey, etc. All were traded while being Top 20 prospects in all of baseball, and in most cases it wasn't a HOF (or even an All-Star) type coming back in the deal.
    Go BLUE!!!

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,860

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Benihana:

    I like the cut of your gib, here. Zig when others are zagging? Absolutely. That, really, was the core of the Moneyball approach. Finding value where it is overlooked.
    Thanks. To paraphrase Warren Buffet, "You want to be the one running into the building when everyone is running out, and vice versa."
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-27-2009 at 02:52 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  7. #6
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,171

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    You are incorrect sir- it is indeed new.

    If you were following this stuff 10 years ago, you would constantly see teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, etc. trading their "top prospects." It used to be pretty rare for a team to have an "untouchable" in the minor leagues. Now every team in the league has at least 2 or 3.

    It wasn't that long ago that Scott Kazmir was traded for Victor Zambrano. Ditto for guys like Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Dennis Tankersley, Brad Penny, Sean Casey, etc. All were traded while being Top 20 prospects in all of baseball, and in most cases it wasn't a HOF (or even an All-Star) type coming back in the deal.
    Carlos Pena was in his 4th organization before he really took off. Same thing with Gonzales, he was with his 3rd team when he really took off. Casey didn't have a place to play being blocked by Thome. Not really sure where you are going with Dennis Tankersley, because it looks like he never amounted to much.

    I think you bring up an interesting point. Prospects are being hoarded by every team not named the Yankees. I think the most logical reason for all of this is the amount of money players are making in the FA market. For example, the Reds could have gone out and signed Teixeira to a $20M/year deal, or you could hope that Alonso turns into a good 1b. If the FA contracts contract a little further this off season then you may see teams trading FA's a little more often.

  8. #7
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,661

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    You are incorrect sir- it is indeed new.

    If you were following this stuff 10 years ago, you would constantly see teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, etc. trading their "top prospects." It used to be pretty rare for a team to have an "untouchable" in the minor leagues. Now every team in the league has at least 2 or 3.

    It wasn't that long ago that Scott Kazmir was traded for Victor Zambrano. Ditto for guys like Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Dennis Tankersley, Brad Penny, Sean Casey, etc. All were traded while being Top 20 prospects in all of baseball, and in most cases it wasn't a HOF (or even an All-Star) type coming back in the deal.
    I was following this stuff 10 years ago, so you can leave the condescenion at the door.

    Kazmir might be an exception proving the rule at best, but perhaps the Mets scouting predicted his quick demise that we are currently seeing? Regardless, a trade that was viewed as not smart at the time is not a great example. That is an isolated incident and does not indicate that there is widespread overvaluing.

    Additionally, you have not proven that identifying your top prospects and holding them is not properly valuing their worth. I understand the overall Moneyball concept and agree with the basic premise. I'm just not seeing where you've proven the thesis that "prospects are overvalued" to proceed on such a direction.

  9. #8
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    6,160

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    You are incorrect sir- it is indeed new.

    If you were following this stuff 10 years ago, you would constantly see teams like the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, etc. trading their "top prospects." It used to be pretty rare for a team to have an "untouchable" in the minor leagues. Now every team in the league has at least 2 or 3.

    It wasn't that long ago that Scott Kazmir was traded for Victor Zambrano. Ditto for guys like Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez, Dennis Tankersley, Brad Penny, Sean Casey, etc. All were traded while being Top 20 prospects in all of baseball, and in most cases it wasn't a HOF (or even an All-Star) type coming back in the deal.
    I agree with you on principle. This untouchable stuff has gone too far. Among the "untouchables" more than half of them end up never coming close to their potential for all sorts of reasons. Just look over the "Lost Decade" of the Reds. The Reds have constantly been in a state of rebuilding and trading for prospects. Lets look at some of the "can't miss" prospects that have come in and out of the Reds system.

    Lets start with the current team

    Jay Bruce, I will allow for him to labeled untouchable coming up, the guy was a machine. Lets hope he turns it around. He was the Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year.

    Brandon Phillips, had to bounce through three teams to find his way. Was traded twice.

    Alex Gonzalez was a premier SS prospect in his own right and the fish were very reluctant to part with him over the years. Today that seems like a millennium ago.

    Edwin Encarnacion anyone getting tired of waiting for him?

    Edinson Volquez had to be torn down, rebuilt, and traded before he even started to come close to his potential.

    Homer Bailey, still waiting.

    Johnny Cueto, coming along ok.

    --Come and Gone. The list is long of prospects brought in or dubbed untouchable.

    Gookie Dawkins
    Pokey Reese
    Ty Howington
    Brandon Claussen
    Wily Mo Pena
    Drew Henson
    Jackson Melian
    Austin Kearns
    Rob Bell
    Chris Reitsma
    Brandon Larson

    How does this list look we viewed through the lens of the trades that could have happened.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,860

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Carlos Pena was in his 4th organization before he really took off. Same thing with Gonzales, he was with his 3rd team when he really took off. Casey didn't have a place to play being blocked by Thome. Not really sure where you are going with Dennis Tankersley, because it looks like he never amounted to much.
    I'm not talking about "when they took off." I was merely illustrating that "Top Prospects" used to get dealt all the time, and the return wasn't always mind-blowing (Halladay, etc.)
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #10
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,160

    Re: And now for something different...

    Imaginary rep to you Beni.

    I couldn't agree more with the basic premise. The list of untouchable prospects on every club is getting massive and it has really cut into player movement during the past five seasons.

    Though I'd cast the net wider. Are the Indians desperate enough to move Grady Sizemore? Could the Braves resist if you offered Yonder Alonso for Yunel Escobar? Are there any mid-market guys or sleepers out there you can pluck with a middling prospect or two?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #11
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    6,160

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I'm not talking about "when they took off." I was merely illustrating that "Top Prospects" used to get dealt all the time, and the return wasn't always mind-blowing (Halladay, etc.)
    I know exactly what you are getting at. I think it was 2000 around the trading deadline when Hal and Marty were discussing a proposed Pokey Reese for Eric Gagne swap. Hal and Marty said they would never trade a player with Reese's potential for a guy like Gagne, who was just a suspect. Potential often times is never reached.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  13. #12
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    6,271

    Re: And now for something different...

    Fear grips GMs and holds them back nowadays. Nobody wants to be the guy who traded away Hanley Ramirez ... even if he gets a Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in return.

    Instead, GMs would rather thrive and fail with their own prospects, and in sheer numbers most of those guys fail. Identifying the guys to keep and the guys to deal is the real meal ticket, and the teams that start doing a better job at that will be the teams beating down the doors for division titles.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  14. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,860

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    I agree with you on principle. This untouchable stuff has gone too far. Among the "untouchables" more than half of them end up never coming close to their potential for all sorts of reasons. Just look over the "Lost Decade" of the Reds. The Reds have constantly been in a state of rebuilding and trading for prospects. Lets look at some of the "can't miss" prospects that have come in and out of the Reds system.

    Lets start with the current team

    Jay Bruce, I will allow for him to labeled untouchable coming up, the guy was a machine. Lets hope he turns it around. He was the Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year.

    Brandon Phillips, had to bounce through three teams to find his way. Was traded twice.

    Alex Gonzalez was a premier SS prospect in his own right and the fish were very reluctant to part with him over the years. Today that seems like a millennium ago.

    Edwin Encarnacion anyone getting tired of waiting for him?

    Edinson Volquez had to be torn down, rebuilt, and traded before he even started to come close to his potential.

    Homer Bailey, still waiting.

    Johnny Cueto, coming along ok.

    --Come and Gone. The list is long of prospects brought in or dubbed untouchable.

    Gookie Dawkins
    Pokey Reese
    Ty Howington
    Brandon Claussen
    Wily Mo Pena
    Drew Henson
    Jackson Melian
    Austin Kearns
    Rob Bell
    Chris Reitsma
    Brandon Larson

    How does this list look we viewed through the lens of the trades that could have happened.
    Yep, and don't forget about John Roper.
    Go BLUE!!!

  15. #14
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    10,171

    Re: And now for something different...

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I'm not talking about "when they took off." I was merely illustrating that "Top Prospects" used to get dealt all the time, and the return wasn't always mind-blowing (Halladay, etc.)
    My point is that Pena, Gonzales, and Tankersely were never top prospects. You could make the argument that Adrian Gonzales was indeed a top prospect but the luster ran off very quickly and he was bouncing around organizations very early in his minor league career. I just think you cherry picked some prospects that were traded because their prospect stature wasn't all that bright.

  16. #15
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    15,547

    Re: And now for something different...

    I'm not against trading prospects but in return I have to get players that I'll control more than a year or two. It makes no sense for a team like the Reds to trade for players like Halladay, Holliday or Cliff Lee.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25