Because right now they are in contention?Originally Posted by M2
Because right now they are in contention?
"When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
This really isn't tricky. He's on his last option this year. Next year those options are gone.
If the Reds aren't openly in rebuilding next year, and since they've spent a decade avoiding that perception I think we can assume the practice will continue, then Bailey's not going to have the luxury of pitching the way he's pitching currently at the major league level.
Clearly you expect him to pitch better next season and maybe he will. I have no expectations for him. All I'm saying is he better improve or he won't be pitching for the Reds. That's just the way the game works.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
What I am and have been saying is lets see how this year finishes out before you make judgments about next year.
"When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"
He'll certainly be getting his share of work the next two months and I'm sure every semi-positive thing he does will be treated like it's an epiphany, just like it has been for the past five years.
I do think the next two months will go a long way in determining whether the Reds decide to roll on him next year. For instance, if he doesn't lower that ERA below 6.00 before the end of the season (and even a bad pitcher should be able to do that), then I find it difficult to imagine the team is going to have much faith in him.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Just like every poor start, going back to his days in Dayton, is greeted by declarations of his being a failure.I'm sure every semi-positive thing he does will be treated like it's an epiphany, just like it has been for the past five years.
Let's not pretend the board has not reverted to extremes on both ends of the spectrum re: Bailey.
He's been rushed -- that's why he's short on options. But he's improving. And it should be expected that he will continue to improve. It took him awhile to get in a groove in AAA, but he ended up dominating there. Very good sign. If the organization is smart, they'll see that improvement through, or they'll deal him while he can bring value.
He's an asset right now, not an albatross.
I'd say he's neither. He's a kid pitching for a job. And seeing that he's exactly where I forecasted he'd be since before the Reds drafted him (unestablished and soon to be out of options), I'm going to make the very reasonable claim that you look elsewhere when looking for examples extreme Homer drama. For the record, I don't think he's washed out with the Reds, but he's getting very close to it.
FWIW, I think it's unfortunate he got plucked out of AAA when he did (though I understand why he was tabbed as Volquez's replacement). Had he stayed on a roll down there I think he'd have been a clear asset at this very moment.
I suspect he's not that highly desired at the moment. Mind you, the only time the Reds ever seem to want to move Homer is when his market sags.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Is he?
2007: 45 IP, 28 BB, 5.76 ERA
2008: 36.1 IP, 17 BB, 7.93 ERA
2009: 38 IP, 22 BB, 6.87 ERA
IMO, right now he is the pitching version of Brandon Phillips 2005, or Wladimir Balentien 2009. He is a faded prospect with a lot of talent, but can't put it together in his current environment.If the organization is smart, they'll see that improvement through, or they'll deal him while he can bring value.
He's an asset right now, not an albatross.
As much as it pains me to say it, he may be worth more in a trade than he is to the Reds. He very well may blossom with another team, but unless he turns it around quickly, it is looking less and less likely that that team will be the Reds.
Maybe the Reds should consider a faded prospect swap a la Garza-Young 2007?
Last edited by Benihana; 07-30-2009 at 03:39 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
Homer Bailey could be the next Edwin Jackson.
If the Reds trade him to Seattle or Detroit.
He could have been Josh Beckett had they not started his clock so damn early. complete mismanagement by the Reds FO. That's on Krivsky for starting it, and Walt for not leaving him in the minors to develop even though the clock was started.
He has a chance to be something. Maybe even something special. I think however, it will be somewhere else.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
+1
Go BLUE!!!
I agree with most of that outside of the Beckett part (who was precocious in ways Homer never was). I'd say he's just coming into what might be the start of a promising career, though it might take him two or three years to settle in.
If I had to pick a comp for a what a successful Homer Bailey might look like, I'd say perhaps Matt Clement (obviously with a curve instead of a slider).
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Since learning the splitter, he's had 3 very very solid outings, and 2 bad outings against arguably 2 of the top 3 offenses in the NL. His walk rate is below 3 for the month.
Yes he is improving.
Here's his numbers for the month:
1-2, 6.28, 5 starts, 28.2 IP, 30 H, 5 HR, 9 BB, 18 K
Eric Milton was good in his good starts too. He just didn't have nearly enough of them and the bad ones were doozies.
Bailey's supposedly been just about to turn the corner for years and, IMO, people (fans and those in Reds management) keep making the mistake of giving him credit for having turned it before he has.
Back to Travis Wood, because this is a Travis Wood thread, does he have to be added to the 40-man roster after this season or does he get one more season's grace?
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Wood's got one more season I believe.
No one is saying Bailey has "turned it around." But in the last month, if you've watched his starts, I am seeing (for the first time) that he truly has the potential to be a major league starter. He's shown up horrendously in 2 starts, and very solid in 2. And oh yeah, he's 23.
Ive heard stories about Josh Beckett being in bars nights before his starts in the WS. I think that one might have came out of Thom Brennemans mouth.
I'm pretty sure he was in Chicago in 2003 during the NLCS. I was living there at the time.
Go BLUE!!!
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