I've ranted enough about the lack of movement by this FO over the last couple of weeks. I decided to lay out what I would do and give my reasons why. I don't think mine is the only way that 's right. I'd love comments.
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips (unless they shock and move him to SS
SS It would be great to land a young 10yr SS, but there aren't any in our upper farm system, those teams that have them aren't likely to move them and even if they do, the price would be really steep. Make a run at Hardy if he makes it to market (or any others), or convert Phillips. Short of that though, find a stop gap (Scutaro?) that can give you decent defense and a little offense until Cozart is ready. I would not trade for many players who weren't ticketed for the bigs by ST by 2011 - SS would be the one exception. I would target any young SS that my scouts were high on, no matter the level and pack the system with them. If two or three of them are ready at once, you know you'll have a market for them.
3B Edwin ain't the answer. Rolen ain't either unless you're willing to extend him for two or three years - and I wouldn't be, but you would probably need stopgap to at least a month or two to start next year (if not longer). I like Frazier's potential. I think he'll always have a good eye - including bushels of doubles and I think his power is coming on. A Francisico/Frazier platoon would be great and free Todd for some super-sub work, but Francisco's discipline probably means that he won't realize his power potential against major league pitching who will exploit his weaknesses and stay away for the power. His 31 errors at AA scares me too - deal him if he sweetens a trade. If you can land a top 3B who is controllable for more than a year, fine, but I think that Frazier is a keeper.
LF This team must add a top bat in the middle of the lineup and LF may be the most likely spot to do so. The key acquisitons will be a big bat and a TOR starter. We probably have enough decent prospects/money to spare to land one and money to go after the other in FA.
CF It would be nice to find a GG CF who is a natural leadoff hitter and has a bunch of power. Good luck find and landing one. I think Stubbs/Dickerson/Heisey are pretty talented prospects and the Reds don't have enough money/prospects to populate every position with acquisition. Some must come from within.
RF For the Reds to actually have any hopes of contending in the next several years, Bruce has to adjust and realize the potential everyone has seen. Pure and simple.
CA Like CF, SS & 3B- it would be great to have an all star with a big bat, but there aren't many and those that there are aren't cheap - not to mention that the Reds have finite resources for acquisitions. I like Hanigan. I'd actually be satisfied with he and another similar to him - solid defense and some offense, batting in the 8 hole.
Bench - there will always be cheap vets to fill holes in ST each year, but there are guys like Sutton, Valaika, Janish, Richar, Rosales, Henry and I still like Dorn, plus the CFer that isn't playing that day and the backup catcher. The key is not givng vets tow or three year contracts with money/years that will block prospects.
Rotation - Cueto. Volquez. If they are going to contend, they must add a TOR starter, but they have to be under control for at least 2011 & ideally, 2012 & 2013. Stewart isn't untouchable, but his game seems ideally suited for the GAB, so I'd be very careful about dealing him. I'm a little more wait-and-see about Wood, but love that he's a lefty. I would give Homer the rest of the year to develop consistency or I'd consider the bullpen. I think there could be enough $$$ left to possibly add a 4th/5th starter-type in FA. Maloney should probably be a deal sweetner, but might stick around for another year. He, Ramirez, Thompson, Jukich and LeCure might be pen filler or injury replacement starters fo another year. After that, the next wave (Leake, Sulbaran, Fariel, etc) might help in 2011 or 2012. If healthy, Owings might spend another year as the 5th starter but I eventually see him as longman/PH
Bullpen - I'd imagine Coco may still be closing come 2010, but would move him for the right deal. Like the bench, there will always be veteran journeymen signed to fill it out. I see Massett as a possible successor. If there are a series of deals for our vets over the next few days (or weeks), I'd be very please if we got one or tow more similar young arms in return. Despite a tough year, I stll like Burton, I also like Roenicke, Fisher and Manual on the right side and Viola and Herrera on the left. I'd love to see Bray bounce back, but I'm dubious until I see it. Bailey to the pen intrigues me if he struggles the rest of the year.
Manager - someone smart and agressive who deals well with the youngsters. I'd also like to see the best hitting and pitching coaches available added. Stress pitching fundamentals, OBP & OPS
Trades & Free Agency - 2011 is my target year. No big contracts for 2010 alone. There will be one-year arms and bats for rent next July. Any young guys whould be major-league ready by 2011 if not sooner - ome exception would be SS - bring in top SS prospects from Single A just to get them in the system. A big bat and a TOR starter must be added must be added (any money saved from dealing vets now must be plowed into these acquisitions). One of the big acquisitons should be a free agent, the other by trade. I'd build a package from among Alonzo, Francisco, Maloney, Bailey, one of the CFers, one of the RH relievers not named Massett and nearly any lower minor leaguer that can be dealt noYorman or Duran). I'd go after a top SS like Hardy if possible (and money is left), but I'd be prepared to find a stopgap until Cozart or a young option can be found. It would be nice to have solid vets at every sopot, but some of our young guys must fills pots for this team to turn the corner.
Future Outlook - I sacrifice 2010 and deal off vets now to aim for 2011 to break the cycle of mediocrity this franchise is mired in. I don't want high paid, one-year halfway measures like Hallladay or Rolen if they take away from what can be accomplished in the futrure. I think you can really begin to build something if you point to 2011 provided that ownership is financially invested. I would take this path because I'm encouraged by the draft and international in-roads that they've made and I think they have a chance to build something sustainable. If business as usual (holding one to vets too long, handing out ill-advised contracts, over-valuing players like Taveras, Patterson, Arroyo, etc and generally operation with no clear plan for the future) things will stay as they have been since the turn of the Century.
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