How did Walt do?

[nate]

I agree with pretty much everything there. The thing I am/was most upset about is the fact that this move makes me fear the other moves that are to follow (or the moves that will now not occur).

Well, someone's going to have to adapt, improvise and overcome!

[Ron Madden]

Well, someone's going to have to adapt, improvise and overcome!

It hasn't happened yet and I see no promise of it happening anytime soon.

[TheNext44]

His production isn't declining (as shown by his hot 2009) but that doesn't mean his raw skills aren't.

People generally slow down, lose a step, suffer more injuries and take longer to recover as they get older. I'm not sure why anybody would want to argue that point.

You are absolutely right about this. Rolen's skills are declining, at least according to his stats.

His SLG is down 32 points from his career avg, and his defense is down too according to Fangraph's UZR/150. His power may go back up from switching from the AL East to the NL Central, but I think it's safe to say his power skills have gone down, as have his fielding skills. This might be the residue of his injury, but it definitely is there.

I still like this trade (especially since learning the Reds will be getting more that the $4M reported), but I agree. For anyone to argue that a 34 year old's skills are not on the decline is fooling themselves. That's not to say that his production will decline, but if it doesn't, it will be in spite of his declining skills.

Personally, I'm more worried about how many games he plays, than his skills. That's the big risk Jocketty took.

[redsfandan]

They gave away a couple months of Hairston for minor league talent that they don't have to pay a bonus.

Except the minor league talent acquired in the trade doesn't seem to have much talent. Also that talent was drafted by the yankees in the 6th round of the '07 draft. Maybe he had a bonus but even if he did it probably wasn't that much.

His production isn't declining (as shown by his hot 2009) but that doesn't mean his raw skills aren't.

People generally slow down, lose a step, suffer more injuries and take longer to recover as they get older. I'm not sure why anybody would want to argue that point.

Ok, newsflash: that's not news! Really! Pretty much any, and every, player, starts a decline once they hit 30. That only means they're human! My problem is I don't see people saying that he'll be a mvp but it does seem like some people are literally expecting Rolen to fall off of a cliff!!

In my first response I said "declining player" which I then further clarified in subsequent posts...



You can get hinkie about not understanding my concept if you must, but you've yet to offer a reasonable defense to the idea that people slow as they age or that it's perfectly reasonable to wonder if/how much of that decline takes place while in a Reds uni.

Ltlabner? PLEASE send me a message explaining what that word means. I've just never heard it before. Kinda funny though.

[Redhook]

Jocketty gets an F- from me.

And I was actually excited when he was named GM of the Reds. In my wildest dreams, I couldn't have fathomed how poorly of a job he has done. Yes, Castellini is to blame as well, but Jocketty has been an epic failure.

[redsfandan]

No it's not a skewed way. It's my opinion. The team is nowhere close to being good, and he mortgaged a great asset of the future for a 3B that might play 100 games next year. Because of this move, there won't be any payroll increases, meaning no Holliday for sure.



Stewart was being groomed to be a starter for the Reds. He was moved to the pen in AAA to cut down on innings. I think he is the best pitching prospect in the organization. Or at least he was.

1st: Agree to disagree? We need a ss, leftfielder, and to figure out the rotation. Other than that we mostly need MUCH better health except for Willy (sorry Willy).
2nd: He overpaid. I get that. I agree. But to say that those two will pan out ... well is your name Nostradamus?
3rd: Again, speculation.
4th: Did you really think we'd be a player for Holliday??

Yet the move made the team even more expensive, thus basically eliminating any splash the Reds were going to make in the FA pool next year (which was probably going to be none anyway). The Reds needed to sign Holliday, and now they certainly will not. The trading chips could have been used to fill other holes (SS, CF).

A more expensive team yes but let's wait and see on the rest. But to say that we NEEDED Holliday is something I don't agree with. Holliday would've required a long-term deal at ALOT per year. That just doesn't make sense for the Reds. 1-2 years on a similar player, or even a slightly lesser player, but less per year? Now you're talking. Pure speculation on the other points (the Reds not being buyers this offseason and that we don't still have some trading chips).

Maybe, but how improved are the Reds going to be if they are saddled by Rolen's $11M salary? How are the Reds going to replace the pitching that they have lost if they trade away potential candidates and don't have the payroll flexibility to sign a quality starter? Why give up players like Stewart for a guy that makes $11M? Encarnacion was enough by himself. Who's going to play in the OF???
You can't rebuild from the middle and they are trying it again...it won't work without having the ability (payroll wise) to sign good free agents. The Reds don't have that kind of Payroll flexibility regardless of how that parameter is set. Terrible baseball trade in my opinion.

Bum

Charge it.

But we really don't know how much money above and beyond Rolen adds to next year's payroll.

I don't think they need to sign Holliday as it would take an enormous chunk of payroll (I read an article today speculating he'll likely get 5 years/$75mm) and get us right back into the team's biggest problem: below average performance at too many positions. The same money that could put Holliday in LF might be able to net average performance at SS and a starting pitcher. I think that makes the overall team better than just signing Holliday.

Just to take that one step further it's possible that the headcase that is Manny will be a FA this offseason. Now, hypothetically, if you have $25m to work with for 2010 would it make more sense to hand Manny a 2 year deal for $45m and find a ss for the remaining $2.5m for 2010? Or would it make more sense to find a leftfielder and a ss for $10m/yr for each and leave the rest for possible upgrades at the trade deadline or extensions? Of course, the Reds won't have that much to spend (we wish) but my point is that spending all the $ on one position, or too much on one position, would be a big mistake.

You are absolutely rigIht about this. Rolen's skills are declining, at least according to his stats.

His SLG is down 32 points from his career avg, and his defense is down too according to Fangraph's UZR/150. His power may go back up from switching from the AL East to the NL Central, but I think it's safe to say his power skills have gone down, as have his fielding skills. This might be the residue of his injury, but it definitely is there. ...

His "skills" have been declining for (roughly) 5 years already. That's called life. That doesn't mean he'll fall off a cliff next year! If Walt does give him an extension HOPE that he's smart about it (less per yr/no more than 2 years).

... I still like this trade (especially since learning the Reds will be getting more that the $4M reported), but I agree. For anyone to argue that a 34 year old's skills are not on the decline is fooling themselves. That's not to say that his production will decline, but if it doesn't, it will be in spite of his declining skills.

Personally, I'm more worried about how many games he plays, than his skills. That's the big risk Jocketty took.

He's an upgrade. Take it or leave it and unfortunately for some you have to take it whether you like it or not. But he WILL be an upgrade.
For him to have any kind of a decline is one thing, for him to fall off of a cliff is completely different.
Yes, games played, total abs... how are people not thinking of that as, BY FAR, the bigger concern?

[Ltlabner]

My problem is I don't see people saying that he'll be a mvp but it does seem like some people are literally expecting Rolen to fall off of a cliff!!

You have noticed that in addition to his age he has an injury history right?

When he's on the DL it's really, really, really hard to get on base and score runs.

It's not out-of-bounds to say that the probability that he rides the pine because of injury is pretty good.

[redsfandan]

You have noticed that in addition to his age he has an injury history right?

When he's on the DL it's really, really, really hard to get on base and score runs.

It's not out-of-bounds to say that the probability that he rides the pine because of injury is pretty good.

I'm sorry, wasn't your focus on his declining skill's? Or are you trying to combine that with the injury risk now?
Walt overpaid.
Rolen is an injury risk.
BUT Rolen falling off a cliff (in regard to skills) almost sounds like wishful thinking by some. (It really, REALLY does)
No Ltlabner, it's not out of bounds to say that he'll miss some time. I think that's to be expected. Count Rolen for 120+ games and EE for 150+ games and I think we still upgraded. Don't you?

[Ltlabner]

I'm sorry, wasn't your focus on his declining skill's? Or are you trying to combine that with the injury risk now?

You mentioned the concept of falling off a cliff. I assumed you meant that your perception is that some of us think he won't produce.

Part of producing is what you do at the plate. He's having a hot year at the plate but the years prior to that were not significantly better than EE's. Add to that that his base physiological skills are declining and it's not beyond the pale to suggest that he's not going to give you better production offensively than EE. Defense is a whole different story and there he'll likely make us forget Edwin pretty quickly.

But the other part of producing involves actually being there to produce. If you're on the DL you ain't producing. Rolen's gotten pretty comfortable on the DL over the past few years.

Count Rolen for 120+ games and EE for 150+ games and I think we still upgraded. Don't you?

I'll have to go check but IIRC correctly he's not played much over 100 to 110ish games the past few years. I wouldn't count on him for 120.

So if you get 110 games of Rolen and 50 games of Adam Rosales, is that still a lock to be better than Edwin for 150 games and ARo for 10? Based on Rolen's 3 year performance, aging body and injury history I don't think it's the lock to be an upgrade many here think it will be.

And no, I don't hope that I'm right and to suggest that I'd rather the team tank than be wrong is silly.

[redsfandan]

So if you get 110 games of Rolen and 50 games of Adam Rosales, is that still a lock to be better than Edwin for 150 games and ARo for 10? Based on Rolen's 3 year performance, aging body and injury history I don't think it's the lock to be an upgrade many here think it will be.

Offensively, it's even. Defensively, we win. Does anyone really dispute that?
EE hasn't had ANY seasons with 150+ games played. He's had only one season with 140 games played, and one other season with over 120 games played. People want to make Rolen out to be a cripple but EE hasn't proven to be a guy you can't get out of the lineup either. Has he?

[redsfandan]

You mentioned the concept of falling off a cliff. I assumed you meant that your perception is that some of us think he won't produce.

Yeah, cuz it at least seems like some people don't think he CAN produce anymore.

And no, I don't hope that I'm right and to suggest that I'd rather the team tank than be wrong is silly.

When did I suggest that you wanted the team to tank? PLEASE show me.

[TRF]

Offensively, it's even. Defensively, we win. Does anyone really dispute that?
EE hasn't had ANY seasons with 150+ games played. And only one season with 140 games played, and one other season with over 120 games played. People want to make Rolen out to be a cripple but EE hasn't proven to be a guy you can't get out of the lineup either. Has he?

It's not a win if Roenicke gets 20-30 something holds, or becomes their closer.

It's not a win if they decide Stewart is their closer and he saves 30+ games, or they decide he's a starter and wins 12+ his rookie year with a sub 4.50 ERA.

[Ltlabner]

EE hasn't had ANY seasons with 150+ games played. And only one season with 140 games played, and one other season with over 120 games played. People want to make Rolen out to be a cripple but EE hasn't proven to be a guy you can't get out of the lineup either. Has he?

You were first to suggest the idea of Edwin for 150 games.

But to answer your question, I think there's a world of difference between a broken wrist from getting hit by the baseball and back issues of a 34 year old.

And some of the reason Edwin hasn't reach high games-played numbers is that he was sent to AAA to get his head on straight. That's not a health issue, although it does takes him out of the lineup just the same.

[Ltlabner]

When did I suggest that you wanted the team to tank? PLEASE show me.

BUT Rolen falling off a cliff (in regard to skills) almost sounds like wishful thinking by some. (It really, REALLY does)

Ok, I said "team tank" and you said "Rolen" but my point remains. Your notion that I'd rather Rolen tank so I can be right is just plain silly.

[redsfandan]

It's not a win if Roenicke gets 20-30 something holds, or becomes their closer.

It's not a win if they decide Stewart is their closer and he saves 30+ games, or they decide he's a starter and wins 12+ his rookie year with a sub 4.50 ERA.

We've already established that Walt overpaid.

EE likely won't be a 3rd baseman in a year or two. He was for the Reds ONLY due to default.
Ya know, I can understand people not being happy cuz the Reds overpaid. But to say that you'd actually want EE at 3rd over Rolen? What ARE you smokin'? Seriously.