Where do we go from here?

[dougdirt]

As of right now the Reds have $66,500,000 tied up in Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Rolen, Phillips, Taveras, Lincoln, Rhodes, Hernandez ($1M buyout if they don't take his option) and Weathers (if they pick up his $3.7M option for 2010... given that they are paying him 3.5 this year, I bet they pick it up). Lets assume those guys are on the roster next year, here is what we are looking like:

Starting Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo
Aaron Harang

Relief Pitchers
Francisco Cordero
Arthur Rhodes
David Weathers
Mike Lincoln

Infielders
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen

Outfielders
Willy Taveras

That is 9 players taking up about all of our current payroll thats estimated to be in the 70-75 million limit.

Lets assume these guys will also be on the pitching roster for sure: Cueto, Owings, Volquez, Bailey, Masset, Herrera. Lets just round their numbers off at $500,000 each. Thats $3M. We are now at $69.5M in payroll.

Lets assume these position players will be on our roster for sure: Votto, Bruce, Dickerson and Hanigan. Lets call it $500,000 each for them as well. Now we are sitting at $71.5M for this roster:

Starting Pitchers
Edinson Volquez
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey

Bullpen
David Weathers
Francisco Cordero
Arthur Rhodes
Mike Lincoln
Micah Owings
Nick Masset
Danny Herrera

Infielders
Ryan Hanigan
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen

Outfielders
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Willy Taveras

So we need to fill a starting shortstop and an entire bench with about 0 to 3 million dollars unless Bob is going to increase the payroll. Unless the Reds go with something like Cozart at SS and a bench made up of Sutton, Rosales, Stubbs, Heisey and Tatum its going to be really tough to keep this team at a budget of $70-75M next year without some other move coming where we dump salary. It also means that we shouldn't even expect a splash of the Willy Taveras proportion this offseason because the money just isn't there.

[WMR]

I posted in the Rolen thread that I don't see how the Reds can make the corresponding moves that would make this Rolen move make sense without upping the payroll to at least 85-90 million.

You gotta at least move Arroyo, even if it means eating some salary to get it done.

[corkedbat]

I posted in the Rolen thread that I don't see how the Reds can make the corresponding moves that would make this Rolen move make sense without upping the payroll to at least 85-90 million.

You gotta at least move Arroyo, even if it means eating some salary to get it done.

Harang and Arroyo have to go.

[redsfandan]

We'd have a chance if they dealt Arroyo or Harang and boosted the payroll even just up to $80m. But that was if we could count on a healthy Volquez and now that doesn't look likely.

[schroomytunes]

I think this move is totally for 2010! our infield is now set except for a SS, I see it as:

Votto,Phillips,FA,Rolen,and Hanigan! we will pick up a backup Catcher and an adequate SS to fill in the holes, guys I like are:

SS) Scutero, Everett, Cabrera
C) Kendall, Schineder(sp?), Castro
---these guys can be had for peanuts in FA

we need a corner OF badly!!!! this allows us to focus on that, as well as maybe snagging a #3/4 type starter in the rotation if we can move Harang/Arroyo, IMO Harang should be the guy to go!

SP-Volquez, Cueto, Bailey,Owings,Arroyo, me...Looper!!! he's ok if used as that type of guy!!!

My FA's to target:

SS: Everett
LF: Ankiel
C: Kendall
SP: Looper

[redsfandan]

Unfortunately, it looks like you'll have to take Volquez out of the equation. And that really hurts.

[Brutus]

I expect Weathers will be traded and I still won't be surprised if Arroyo or Harang get jettisoned in August, as either would pass through waivers, probably. Either way, I do not believe they will pick up Weathers' option. I'll be surprised if they do, in fact.

Clearly though, there won't be a lot of salary wiggle room at the present budget unless the Reds work miracles and find trade partners of someone wanting Wily Taveras or Mike Lincoln (ha!).

[dougdirt]

I expect Weathers will be traded and I still won't be surprised if Arroyo or Harang get jettisoned in August, as either would pass through waivers, probably. Either way, I do not believe they will pick up Weathers' option. I'll be surprised if they do, in fact.

Clearly though, there won't be a lot of salary wiggle room at the present budget unless the Reds work miracles and find trade partners of someone wanting Wily Taveras or Mike Lincoln (ha!).

The Reds are going to eat $1.5M in not picking up the options on Gonzalez and Hernandez. I doubt they make it a cool $2M by not giving Weathers a $200,000 raise if he continues his ERA around the 3 to 3.50 mark.

[Brutus]

The Reds are going to eat $1.5M in not picking up the options on Gonzalez and Hernandez. I doubt they make it a cool $2M by not giving Weathers a $200,000 raise if he continues his ERA around the 3 to 3.50 mark.

I have heard from several folks that the Reds continue to try to get takers on Weathers as is. I sincerely doubt they would want to try and trade a guy, fail, then turn around and keep a $3.5 mil option when they probably think they can find a replacement reliever for half the price. Maybe you'll be right, but I still think he gets traded and if not, I don't expect them to pick up the option. That's my gut.

[redsfandan]

Ya know, I really do appreciate what Weathers has done for the Reds over the last 4 1/2 seasons but if we have $20m+ tied up in the bullpen in 2010 ...

[dougdirt]

I have heard from several folks that the Reds continue to try to get takers on Weathers as is. I sincerely doubt they would want to try and trade a guy, fail, then turn around and keep a $3.5 mil option when they probably think they can find a replacement reliever for half the price. Maybe you'll be right, but I still think he gets traded and if not, I don't expect them to pick up the option. That's my gut.

Either way, that still leaves the Reds trying to fill 6 or 7 spots, including a starting SS with about 3-5 Million dollars. It doesn't look good.

[Brutus]

Either way, that still leaves the Reds trying to fill 6 or 7 spots, including a starting SS with about 3-5 Million dollars. It doesn't look good.

No disagreements there. But if they can find takers on Arroyo and/or Harang...

Things would look a lot better.

[dougdirt]

No disagreements there. But if they can find takers on Arroyo and/or Harang...

Things would look a lot better.

I don't know if they would look a lot better, but they would look somewhat better. The problem is, they aren't going to find any takers because Bob won't eat the money to make it happen. Rumor was Jocketty had both guys moved but Bob wasn't going to eat some money to make it happen. I hope I am wrong and at least one gets moved, but I won't be holding my breath.

[TheNext44]

No way they pick up Hernandez, really doubtful with Weathers. He is either not picked up, or traded before the end of the year. Technically he would be worth the option if he pitched the same as this year, but I think they know that he can be replaced with a youngster, and that he is not likely to repeat this year. This will be especially true if he continues to pitch like he has lately and he ERA creeps closer to 4.00 or higher.

And you are not subtracting the money received in the Rolen deal and the money saved with the Hairston deal. That combined with the extra money that Rolen makes this year, nets the Reds an extra $1.5M. The buyouts, bonuses and Alonso's salary equal $2.5M, so with that extra $1.5M, the "extras" add an additional $1M.

Here's a more accurate look at what the Reds payroll will look like next year.

Cordero		12
Harang		12.5
Arroyo		11
Philips		6.75
Rolen		11
Taveras		4
Rhodes 		2
Lincoln 	2.5
Bruce		0.4
Votto		0.4
Janish		0.4
Volquez		0.4
Cueto		0.4
Bailey		0.4
Owings		0.4
Herrera		0.4
Fisher		0.4
Gomes		0.4
Nix		0.4
Roenicke	0.4
Masset		0.4
Dickerson	0.4
Rosales		0.4
Sutton		0.4
Balentien	0.4
extras		1
Total	 	69.5

2008 Payroll $72.5M

So assuming the Reds don't bump payroll, the Reds can add around $3M to the payroll next year. If there is a 10% increase to $80M, that leaves around $10M to spend. Still not enough to fill the holes, but a slightly rosier picture than $1-3M.

To me it looks like either raising payroll to $85M or trading one of the big three, Harang, Arroyo or Cordero, if possible. I think one of those two options will be accomplished by next season.

[Mario-Rijo]

Where do we go from here?

Somewhere the big bad Ricciardi can't reach us.