The reason I don't see the Reds keeping Bray is because they'd have to offer him arbitration. I'm just not sure he's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to keep him around.
The reason I don't see the Reds keeping Bray is because they'd have to offer him arbitration. I'm just not sure he's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to keep him around.
He's got a slightly over .500 OPS at AAA in more than 250 AB's. I don't deny he's got some potential. He's just unlikely to get drafted. Teams that are hurting enough to spend a 25 man spot on a project like that are a lot more likely to take a pitcher. I'd like to keep him, of course, but not at the expense of anybody I considered a potential major league arm.
What are the differences between the major league, and AAA phases of the Rule V draft? I admit to being a little confused on the difference.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
Arbitration salaries are usually based on the last three years of service. They factor things like injuries, but it mostly goes by comparisons based on the last three years of service. Remember, it is common for players going through arbitration to get more than they would as free agents. That is why so many teams non-tender or don't offer arbitration these days.
Here are Burton's numbers for his three years of service:
9-3 3.65 ERA 7.8 K/9 1.88 K/BB 1.39 WHIP
Those numbers should get him around $3.5-$4M for next season. If they factor in last year, and his being sent down, at wost he gets $2.5-$3M. No way the Reds risk that on Burton for next year.
He can easily be replaced for around $1M. Now, they might tell him that, and that if they don't tender him a contract, that is all he will get as a free agent, and maybe he signs for around that, avoiding arbitration. But they are not going to offer him arbitration.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I think the next two months determine whether Burton gets offered arbitration or not. I think Cincinnati is leaning, at this point, to not.
after ML teams protect their top 40 players from selection in the major league phase, they then protect their next best 25 or so on their AAA team's roster, and after that their next 25 or so on their AA team's roster. so the players chosen in AAA phase are number 66 or lower in terms of franchise value (and actually much worse because so many more valuable young players do not have to be protected). I've almost never seen a player of merit chosen in the AAA phase. it's not worth paying attention to.
2015, baby!
Agreed. I think I've come to appreciate, somewhat begrudgingly, the deliberation with which the team is moving in making certain roster decisions (not all). The Burton case is one, especially now that they've moved Roenicke and Stewart. Best to see if he can recapture the form that made him so solid in late 2007 and in stretches last year -- before moving on to experiments with other guys.I think the next two months determine whether Burton gets offered arbitration or not. I think Cincinnati is leaning, at this point, to not.
Burton did nothing for his case tonight; I'm predicting it will be Burton out, Wells in, when the decision's got to be made.
I think Wells may have a chance to help this team as a reliever in 2010. He had a 1.5 GO/AO in his appearances at Wash., and was not really hit that hard. He's won 65 major league games. It's just possible he could learn to pitch relief here and be useful.
If Kip Wells is kept for any reason after this season then the entire Reds brain trust need to have lobotomies. Kip Wells has been awful for years and will continue to be awful until his time in baseball is through. He should be the absolute last guy to keep of anyone on the 40 man roster besides MAYBE Castillo.
Originally Posted by teamselig
He gets ground balls but he walks a lot of hitters just like he did tonight.
Hes pitched 29 innings this season and has walked 21 hitters.
In 1257 major league innings hes walked just under 600 hitters.
If he couldn't cut down his walks with the Cardinals then I doubt he ever will.
An update: I replaced Dave Weathers' spot with Enerio Del Rosario (you just can't ignore that production), and I inserted Phil Valiquette in place of Sean Watson since Valiquette is younger and left-handed.
Gone:
Ramon Hernandez (buyout)
Danny Richar (has already been DFAed once)
Alex Gonzalez (buyout)
Laynce Nix (not offered arbitration due to the young outfielders in AAA)
Jonny Gomes (see: Laynce Nix)
Sean Henry (not enough power to be worth a roster spot)
Dallas Buck (can't stay healthy)
Bill Bray (can't stay healthy and out of options; will be nontendered)
Mike Lincoln (will be DFAed eventually)
Ben Jukich (one-trick pony that won't translate to ML success)
Alex Smit (probably a future LOOGY at best)
Sean Watson (plenty of potential, but the wildness is a big question mark)
Justin Lehr (a AAAA player who would need to be offered arbitration to stick around)
Kip Wells (history says he should have no place on the team)
That would leave a 40-man roster of (new additions in bold):
(19)
C Ryan Hanigan
C Wilkin Castillo
C Craig Tatum
1B Joey Votto
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Brandon Phillips
2B Drew Sutton
3B Scott Rolen
3B Adam Rosales
3B Juan Francisco
SS Paul Janish
SS Chris Valaika
LF Wladimir Balentien
LF Danny Dorn
CF Chris Dickerson
CF Willy Taveras
CF Chris Heisey
CF Drew Stubbs
RF Jay Bruce
(12)
SP Edinson Volquez
SP Aaron Harang
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Homer Bailey
SP Micah Owings
SP Ramon Ramirez
SP Sam LeCure
SP Matt Maloney
SP Daryl Thompson
SP Jordan Smith
SP Travis Wood
(9)
RP Francisco Cordero
RP Arthur Rhodes
RP Nick Masset
RP Jared Burton
RP Carlos Fisher
RP Daniel Ray Herrera
RP Phil Valiquette
RP Enerio Del Rosario
RP Pedro Viola
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